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Product Version: 2013-05-24 20:44:48 2013-05-24 18:04:35 2013-05-24 11:48:21 2013-05-24 09:40:48 2013-05-24 04:22:44 2013-05-24 03:11:14 2013-05-24 02:04:18 2013-05-23 23:34:43 2013-05-23 17:36:55 2013-05-23 12:43:31 2013-05-23 09:46:45 2013-05-23 04:53:06 2013-05-23 00:01:09 2013-05-22 21:00:12 2013-05-22 11:44:36 2013-05-22 09:54:17 2013-05-22 04:27:11 2013-05-21 23:07:50 2013-05-21 21:04:23 2013-05-21 18:24:20 2013-05-21 11:38:27 2013-05-21 09:45:11 2013-05-21 04:33:29 2013-05-20 23:20:55 2013-05-20 20:41:57 2013-05-20 11:39:00 2013-05-20 09:15:22 2013-05-20 04:34:39 2013-05-20 00:16:17 2013-05-19 20:13:05 2013-05-19 17:29:33 2013-05-19 16:29:14 2013-05-19 11:06:45 2013-05-19 09:03:44 2013-05-19 04:41:14 2013-05-19 02:29:35 2013-05-18 23:51:33 2013-05-18 20:19:46 2013-05-18 17:44:20 2013-05-18 16:31:20 2013-05-18 11:48:32 2013-05-18 10:17:16 2013-05-18 04:59:09 2013-05-18 00:06:42 ALL   

366
FXUS64 KLUB 242044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WENT UNRESOLVED BY
MANY MODELS WAS LIKELY ENHANCING A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LACKLUSTER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE
NEAREST ENHANCED CU AND CUMULONIMBI LOCATED FROM NEAR HASKELL/TX
NORTH TO MANGUM/OK UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CHOSE TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR TSTRMS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD
WITH TIME IN SELY FLOW ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AS BREEZY SELY WINDS PULL
RICHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY...
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
RESULTS IN EVEN BROADER SUBSIDENCE/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING BACKED INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
OUR IMPROVING LL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTRMS PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR DOMAIN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTACT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT.  THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
POINT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE GIVES THE DRYLINE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL STORMS.  THE
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS MODEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  84  60  93  60 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         61  83  60  92  64 /  10  20  20  10  20
PLAINVIEW     62  84  61  91  64 /  10  20  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  84  62  92  63 /  10  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  84  63  92  65 /  10  20  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  84  61  92  63 /  10  20  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    63  85  62  92  63 /  10  20  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     65  87  66  93  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          64  84  63  91  64 /  10  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  84  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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