Area Forecast Discussion
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864
FXUS64 KLUB 121734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BREEZY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTN. SPEEDS OF 22-24 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
VISIBILITIES BECOMING RESTRICTED TO VFR CRITERIA /AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CRITERIA/ PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE
AFTER SUNSET...BUT ONLY JUST A BIT WITH 17-18 KTS ENSUING.
TOMORROW AFTN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTN. ONCE AGAIN...VFR BLDU
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TOASTY TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE THE
FOCUS OF TODAY/S FORECAST.

THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BACKS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS A SOLID FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE SCARCE AS YOU
DESCEND TOWARD THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
08Z...DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL SCOUR THE SURFACE
MOISTURE EASTWARD...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...IT DOES APPEAR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD IT OCCUR...WOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SLIVER OF
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER 18Z. INSTEAD...DRY AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SPREAD OVER FROM THE WEST. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE DANGER...THESE
GUSTY WINDS COULD LOFT SOME BLOWING DUST...AND WE HAVE INSERTED A
DUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS FROM 18-00Z. EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FURTHER EAST.

BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
MAINTAINED AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BECOME POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF A 50-60+ KNOT LLJ. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...PERHAPS A FEW 40S
NORTHWEST...WHILE 60S ARE COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER MOISTURE COULD BRING THE RISK OF
A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...COULD NOT JUSTIFY ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE POPS...BUT A
ROGUE STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS ALOFT CAN DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...
THE LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS OUR ERN
ZONES AS THE LATEST INFO SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF
THE FA...LEAVING US WITH ANOTHER WARM...BREEZY AND POSSIBLY A BIT
DUSTY...DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM
SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 MPH...LIKELY GENERATING SOME BLOWING
DUST...WHILE THE GFS COMING IN A BIT LOWER. IN ANY CASE...A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS IS
STILL THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO OUR NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE DELAYS IT/S ARRIVAL UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEGREE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST JUST
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS. N-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG SURGE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...OUR
FCST IS BELOW THIS STRENGTH BUT WE/LL KEEP ASSESSING THIS
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
SEWD OUT OF NM AS THE SECOND UPPER-LVL WAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COINCIDE WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO NEAR FRZG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR NRN AND
WRN ZONES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 18 UTC MONDAY...WITH CHANCES
LIKELY DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER NOON AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WE DON/T THINK TEMPS WILL HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
RECOVER AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...PERHAPS SOME 40S
NORTH. THEN THE COLD SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-FRZG TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS /WHERE THEY HAVEN`T HIT THEIR AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE DATE YET/...AND A LITTLE BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK /WHERE IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A LATE
FREEZE/. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT
THIS POINT.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS UNDERGONE A LARGE SHIFT AND NOW SHOWS A RATHER SHARP TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BOTH FEATURES. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTERRUPTING THE WARM
UP...BUT MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FCST...THERE IS A HINT AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WTX
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WE/VE KEPT A DRY FORECAST UNTIL IF AND WHEN THERE
IS BETTER AGREEMENT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
DRYLINE OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 15-20 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE /UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S/ WHICH WILL PUSH RH VALUES UNDER 10 PERCENT AND PERHAPS AS
LOW AS 3 TO 5 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SUSTAINED 20+ MPH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ PERIODIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THE DURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH 3 HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. THUS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE AND HUMIDITIES SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
EVENING...MEANING ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS...WE DID DECIDE TO
EXTEND THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS BY ONE HOUR...FROM 8 TO 9 PM.

DEPENDING OF COURSE ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT...SUNDAY/S
SETUP APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS...THIS TIME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING RH VALUES AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. WE/VE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAY BE A CONCERN FOR
ANY FIRE FIGHTING OPERATIONS AS IT WILL BRING A SHARP CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  31  46  30 /  10  10  20  30   0
TULIA         53  72  32  47  30 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     56  75  32  49  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     56  80  34  50  31 /  10  10  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       58  81  36  51  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  81  37  53  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  81  37  52  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     61  78  37  52  34 /  10  10  10  20  10
SPUR          61  85  38  52  34 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  88  41  55  36 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027>044.

&&

$$

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