139
FXUS64 KLUB 170858
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
RSS Feeds