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888
FXUS64 KLUB 210106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99
115
FXUS64 KLUB 202342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55/24
170
FXUS64 KLUB 202110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

.LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55
535
FXUS64 KLUB 201726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBB TERMINAL BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KLBB
TAF AT THIS TIME. SECOND ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT KLBB
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS ALSO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
902
FXUS64 KLUB 201120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
158
FXUS64 KLUB 200754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
712
FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AT KLBB THIS MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS BUT GIVEN
THE SETUP...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO IFR LEVELS
/70 PCT CONFIDENCE/ AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES
EXIST AT BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  10  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  20  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  20  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  20  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  10  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
654
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
574
FXUS64 KLUB 192032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
184
FXUS64 KLUB 191713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK AT KCDS THEN LIFTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LOWERED VISBYS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  73  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         52  76  51  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  73  54  73  53 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       55  74  54  74  54 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  71  57  71  54 /  20  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    56  73  55  73  54 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     57  81  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  78  57  77  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  57  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
153
FXUS64 KLUB 191120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
194
FXUS64 KLUB 190735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
207
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR IFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB. THUS FAR...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD THAT KLBB WILL DIP TO
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERHAPS A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IFR EXISTS. ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE EXISTS FOR
LIFR IN CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD ONLY
DIP TO HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
036
FXUS64 KLUB 182331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AT KLBB. CEILING
SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
483
FXUS64 KLUB 182029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
418
FXUS64 KLUB 181707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KCDS. LOW
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAWS INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  70  50  73  49 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         47  72  52  76  52 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     48  72  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     49  72  54  74  52 /  10  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       50  72  55  75  54 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   50  72  54  74  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    50  73  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     50  76  55  81  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  75  56  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     53  77  59  80  58 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
805
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
451
FXUS64 KLUB 181203
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST
NORTHEAST FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY...AS WELL THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
443
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
650
FXUS64 KLUB 180800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
296
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
547
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
626
FXUS64 KLUB 170732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
468
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH VEERING NORTHEAST
WINDS. KLBB WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS APPROACH 12 KNOTS BY 15Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.

COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE ITSELF AVAILABLE...THINK A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     89  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     90  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       91  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   89  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          93  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
014
FXUS64 KLUB 162342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.

COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE ITSELF AVAILABLE...THINK A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  75  44  69  45 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         45  75  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     45  75  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     47  76  47  70  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  78  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   50  79  50  71  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  78  49  71  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     49  79  49  73  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          48  78  49  71  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  80  51  74  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
691
FXUS64 KLUB 162046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.

COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE ITSELF AVAILABLE...THINK A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  73  41  68  43 /   0   0   0  20  10
TULIA         46  73  45  70  46 /   0   0   0  20  10
PLAINVIEW     47  73  46  70  48 /   0   0   0  20  10
LEVELLAND     49  75  48  69  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
LUBBOCK       47  76  47  70  48 /   0   0   0  20  10
DENVER CITY   53  77  50  70  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
BROWNFIELD    50  77  50  70  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
CHILDRESS     51  78  47  73  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          50  77  49  72  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     52  80  49  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KNS
119
FXUS64 KLUB 161717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS WILL BE PREVALENT AT KLBB AND KCDS. EXPECT
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 00Z AT KCDS AND 03Z AT KLBB BUT SHOULD
STILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS.

GARCIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SW TO WEST WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NE
THIS EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS THROUGHOUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COLD OR DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EFFECT ON THE
FCST AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. MAIN ISSUE THEN IS HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AN
INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SW AND SC PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT MAY INTRUDE EARLY
THIS AFTN. THIS COULD PUT RECORDS AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS IN
JEOPARDY. MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE RECORD NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES WORTH NOTING IN THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE INCLUDED
NUDGING TEMPS UP A BIT NEXT WEEK AND ADDING PRECIP MENTION BY WED
AND THU.

FLAT RIDGING TO START ON FRI MORNING WILL AMPLIFY A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM BAJA CA. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO MINOR OUT COMPLETELY BY SAT MORNING AS IT REACHES NEW
MEXICO AND HAS THE MAJORITY OF ITS MOISTURE WRUNG OUT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA...BUT CAN/T ARGUE AGAINST
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAKING IT INTO OUR NWRN COUNTIES
AT SOME POINT ON SAT. THIS MID-LEVEL POCKET OF MOISTURE THEN DRIES
OUT BY SUN.

MUCH BETTER MOISTENING SETS UP NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE IS CARRIED NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED
TROUGH/LOW STILL PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
LIFT HOWEVER IS MUTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK ONCE A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH PHASES WITH THE WAVE TO OUR SW AND MOBILIZES IT SLOWLY
E-NE. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
AS PROGGED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS. WE FEEL SUCH A SETUP IS FITTING
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUCH A DISTANT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NO THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
TULIA        MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
PLAINVIEW    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LEVELLAND    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LUBBOCK      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DENVER CITY  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BROWNFIELD   MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
CHILDRESS    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SPUR         MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
ASPERMONT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
302
FXUS64 KLUB 161142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SW TO WEST WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NE
THIS EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COLD OR DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EFFECT ON THE
FCST AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. MAIN ISSUE THEN IS HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AN
INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SW AND SC PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT MAY INTRUDE EARLY
THIS AFTN. THIS COULD PUT RECORDS AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS IN
JEOPARDY. MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE RECORD NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES WORTH NOTING IN THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE INCLUDED
NUDGING TEMPS UP A BIT NEXT WEEK AND ADDING PRECIP MENTION BY WED
AND THU.

FLAT RIDGING TO START ON FRI MORNING WILL AMPLIFY A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM BAJA CA. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO MINOR OUT COMPLETELY BY SAT MORNING AS IT REACHES NEW
MEXICO AND HAS THE MAJORITY OF ITS MOISTURE WRUNG OUT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA...BUT CAN/T ARGUE AGAINST
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAKING IT INTO OUR NWRN COUNTIES
AT SOME POINT ON SAT. THIS MID-LEVEL POCKET OF MOISTURE THEN DRIES
OUT BY SUN.

MUCH BETTER MOISTENING SETS UP NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE IS CARRIED NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED
TROUGH/LOW STILL PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
LIFT HOWEVER IS MUTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK ONCE A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH PHASES WITH THE WAVE TO OUR SW AND MOBILIZES IT SLOWLY
E-NE. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
AS PROGGED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS. WE FEEL SUCH A SETUP IS FITTING
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUCH A DISTANT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NO THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     88  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     92  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          91  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
828
FXUS64 KLUB 160857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. A MODEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COLD OR DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...EFFECT ON THE
FCST AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. MAIN ISSUE THEN IS HIGH TEMPS TODAY. AN
INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SW AND SC PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT MAY INTRUDE EARLY
THIS AFTN. THIS COULD PUT RECORDS AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS IN
JEOPARDY. MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS TWO OR THREE
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE RECORD NUMBERS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES WORTH NOTING IN THIS EXTENDED PACKAGE INCLUDED
NUDGING TEMPS UP A BIT NEXT WEEK AND ADDING PRECIP MENTION BY WED
AND THU.

FLAT RIDGING TO START ON FRI MORNING WILL AMPLIFY A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM BAJA CA. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO MINOR OUT COMPLETELY BY SAT MORNING AS IT REACHES NEW
MEXICO AND HAS THE MAJORITY OF ITS MOISTURE WRUNG OUT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING IN THE FORM OF VIRGA...BUT CAN/T ARGUE AGAINST
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAKING IT INTO OUR NWRN COUNTIES
AT SOME POINT ON SAT. THIS MID-LEVEL POCKET OF MOISTURE THEN DRIES
OUT BY SUN.

MUCH BETTER MOISTENING SETS UP NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE IS CARRIED NWWD UP THE RIO GRANDE AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED
TROUGH/LOW STILL PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO.
LIFT HOWEVER IS MUTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK ONCE A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH PHASES WITH THE WAVE TO OUR SW AND MOBILIZES IT SLOWLY
E-NE. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
AS PROGGED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS. WE FEEL SUCH A SETUP IS FITTING
OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUCH A DISTANT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH NO THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     88  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     92  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          91  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     90  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
231
FXUS64 KLUB 160453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASING CIRRUS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY BY 15-16Z THURSDAY BEFORE
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND PROTRUDING RIDGE WILL FLATTEN NEXT
24 HOURS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL MODIFY UL FLOW TO BE ZONAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH
KICKS EASTWARD INTO KS AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT WARMER TONIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY WARM THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

LONG TERM...
A DECAYING CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS
RESULTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE PLAINS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SENDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

A CLOSED LOW THEN DIVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TEXAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
ANYWAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ITS TRACK AND
ITS QPF DEPICTION IS SUSPECT GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH.
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES...CMC...AND LATEST
NAEFS RUN. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT FOR MONDAY IS TRENDING WEAKER
IN ALL MODELS AND IS NOW STOPPING SHORT OF THE REGION IN THE GFS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER AND WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH
IN THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  48  82  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  49  86  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  49  88  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  88  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  49  88  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  44  88  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  47  89  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  51  90  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  48  92  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  49  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
039
FXUS64 KLUB 152332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VEERING SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DRY FRONT SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND PROTRUDING RIDGE WILL FLATTEN NEXT
24 HOURS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL MODIFY UL FLOW TO BE ZONAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH
KICKS EASTWARD INTO KS AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT WARMER TONIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY WARM THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

LONG TERM...
A DECAYING CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS
RESULTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE PLAINS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SENDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

A CLOSED LOW THEN DIVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TEXAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
ANYWAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ITS TRACK AND
ITS QPF DEPICTION IS SUSPECT GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH.
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES...CMC...AND LATEST
NAEFS RUN. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT FOR MONDAY IS TRENDING WEAKER
IN ALL MODELS AND IS NOW STOPPING SHORT OF THE REGION IN THE GFS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER AND WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH
IN THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  82  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  86  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  88  46  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  88  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  88  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  88  49  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  89  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  90  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  92  51  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  90  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
409
FXUS64 KLUB 151911
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
211 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND PROTRUDING RIDGE WILL FLATTEN NEXT
24 HOURS AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL MODIFY UL FLOW TO BE ZONAL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH
KICKS EASTWARD INTO KS AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT WARMER TONIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY WARM THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A DECAYING CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL FURTHER DAMPEN
AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS
RESULTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SQUEEZE
OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SPILL INTO THE PLAINS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SENDING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

A CLOSED LOW THEN DIVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF TEXAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
ANYWAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ITS TRACK AND
ITS QPF DEPICTION IS SUSPECT GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH.
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED IN THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES...CMC...AND LATEST
NAEFS RUN. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT FOR MONDAY IS TRENDING WEAKER
IN ALL MODELS AND IS NOW STOPPING SHORT OF THE REGION IN THE GFS.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FASTER AND WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH
IN THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  82  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  86  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  88  46  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  88  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  88  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  88  49  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  89  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  90  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  92  51  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  90  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
243
FXUS64 KLUB 151719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THU AFTN.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24-HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EWD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BACK TO WEST BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE AT THE SFC MODEST WEST
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SW. THICKNESS INCREASES SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
JUST BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN AS OF LATE UNDER MEAN RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PROGRESSIVE REGIME BY LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SERIES OF PACIFIC
TROUGHS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WEST. AS THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES
EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SOUTH BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THUR AFTN. A
SHARPENING THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME POISED
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING...SO NEAR RECORD HIGHS
REMAIN A GOOD BET IN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IN LINE WILL ASSUME A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDE AS IT PARTIALLY TEAMS WITH /BUT ULTIMATELY LAGS/ A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CHURNING TOWARD BAJA CA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WE EXPECT A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...BUT
ANYTHING MORE APPEARS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEFICITS AND LACK OF ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THU/S FRONT.
THE LATEST ECM SEEMS TOO EAGER WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BY SAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IN REALITY VIRGA
MAY BE THE ONLY BYPRODUCT HERE AFTER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS
ROBBED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHER WEST.

A MODEST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIRTY RIDGE
EMERGING OVER WEST TX. THE BRUNT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS
FAVORED TO DIVE SEWD INTO OLD MEXICO BY THE GFS ECM AND CMC MODELS
WITH SIMILAR SUPPORT EVIDENT ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE VERY WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PROVES
CORRECT IN ABANDONING A SECOND COLD FRONT BY MON. ECM AND CMC
STILL BRING DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY SUN
NIGHT AND MON...SO WE/LL RETAIN THIS FROPA FOR MONDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL INTACT UNDER THE RIDGE...IMPROVED
MOISTURE DOWN LOW FROM THE GULF BY THIS TIME MAY WARRANT SOME
LEGITIMATE POPS WITH THIS FROPA IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT WITH
BETTER LIFT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...POPS REMAIN SILENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  46  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  47  86  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  46  88  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  44  90  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  90  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  48  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  47  92  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  47  92  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
036
FXUS64 KLUB 151112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24-HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EWD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BACK TO WEST BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE AT THE SFC MODEST WEST
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SW. THICKNESS INCREASES SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
JUST BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN AS OF LATE UNDER MEAN RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PROGRESSIVE REGIME BY LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SERIES OF PACIFIC
TROUGHS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WEST. AS THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES
EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SOUTH BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THUR AFTN. A
SHARPENING THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME POISED
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING...SO NEAR RECORD HIGHS
REMAIN A GOOD BET IN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IN LINE WILL ASSUME A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDE AS IT PARTIALLY TEAMS WITH /BUT ULTIMATELY LAGS/ A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CHURNING TOWARD BAJA CA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WE EXPECT A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...BUT
ANYTHING MORE APPEARS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEFICITS AND LACK OF ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THU/S FRONT.
THE LATEST ECM SEEMS TOO EAGER WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BY SAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IN REALITY VIRGA
MAY BE THE ONLY BYPRODUCT HERE AFTER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS
ROBBED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHER WEST.

A MODEST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIRTY RIDGE
EMERGING OVER WEST TX. THE BRUNT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS
FAVORED TO DIVE SEWD INTO OLD MEXICO BY THE GFS ECM AND CMC MODELS
WITH SIMILAR SUPPORT EVIDENT ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE VERY WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PROVES
CORRECT IN ABANDONING A SECOND COLD FRONT BY MON. ECM AND CMC
STILL BRING DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY SUN
NIGHT AND MON...SO WE/LL RETAIN THIS FROPA FOR MONDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL INTACT UNDER THE RIDGE...IMPROVED
MOISTURE DOWN LOW FROM THE GULF BY THIS TIME MAY WARRANT SOME
LEGITIMATE POPS WITH THIS FROPA IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT WITH
BETTER LIFT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...POPS REMAIN SILENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  46  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  47  86  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  46  88  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  44  90  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  90  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  48  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  47  92  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  47  92  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07
358
FXUS64 KLUB 150820
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET 24-HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING MOVES SLOWLY EWD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BACK TO WEST BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE AT THE SFC MODEST WEST
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SW. THICKNESS INCREASES SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...
JUST BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN AS OF LATE UNDER MEAN RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PROGRESSIVE REGIME BY LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SERIES OF PACIFIC
TROUGHS MAKING LANDFALL IN THE WEST. AS THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES
EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SOUTH BEFORE REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THUR AFTN. A
SHARPENING THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME POISED
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING...SO NEAR RECORD HIGHS
REMAIN A GOOD BET IN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH IN LINE WILL ASSUME A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
LATITUDE AS IT PARTIALLY TEAMS WITH /BUT ULTIMATELY LAGS/ A
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CHURNING TOWARD BAJA CA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WE EXPECT A PLUME OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES...BUT
ANYTHING MORE APPEARS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEFICITS AND LACK OF ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THU/S FRONT.
THE LATEST ECM SEEMS TOO EAGER WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BY SAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IN REALITY VIRGA
MAY BE THE ONLY BYPRODUCT HERE AFTER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS
ROBBED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHER WEST.

A MODEST SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIRTY RIDGE
EMERGING OVER WEST TX. THE BRUNT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS
FAVORED TO DIVE SEWD INTO OLD MEXICO BY THE GFS ECM AND CMC MODELS
WITH SIMILAR SUPPORT EVIDENT ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS DOES NOT
BODE VERY WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS PROVES
CORRECT IN ABANDONING A SECOND COLD FRONT BY MON. ECM AND CMC
STILL BRING DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY SUN
NIGHT AND MON...SO WE/LL RETAIN THIS FROPA FOR MONDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL INTACT UNDER THE RIDGE...IMPROVED
MOISTURE DOWN LOW FROM THE GULF BY THIS TIME MAY WARRANT SOME
LEGITIMATE POPS WITH THIS FROPA IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT WITH
BETTER LIFT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREA...POPS REMAIN SILENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  46  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  47  86  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  46  88  45  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  44  90  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  90  47  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   80  45  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  46  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  48  91  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          83  47  92  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  47  92  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93
388
FXUS64 KLUB 150445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT...MAINLY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

AVIATION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT OVER MINS WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES UP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE NORMAL
TROUBLE SPOTS. WINDS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AROUND 6 KTS UP THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP MINS FROM CRATERING. THAT SAID...IF
SPEEDS DROP BELOW 3 KTS...COULD SEE MINS APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CLASSIC WEST TEXAS FALL.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY AT 23N
129W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL JUST BE BEGINNING TO RECOVER ON
SATURDAY SO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE TROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
SUSPICIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS MAY SLOW DOWN THE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  80  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  80  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  79  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  80  47  90  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  49  90  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  83  49  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  82  49  92  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  83  52  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
596
FXUS64 KLUB 142315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT OVER MINS WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES UP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE NORMAL
TROUBLE SPOTS. WINDS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AROUND 6 KTS UP THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP MINS FROM CRATERING. THAT SAID...IF
SPEEDS DROP BELOW 3 KTS...COULD SEE MINS APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CLASSIC WEST TEXAS FALL.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY AT 23N
129W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL JUST BE BEGINNING TO RECOVER ON
SATURDAY SO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE TROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
SUSPICIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS MAY SLOW DOWN THE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  80  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  80  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  79  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  80  47  90  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  49  90  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  83  49  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  82  49  92  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  83  52  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
741
FXUS64 KLUB 141950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RIDGING
BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
BY WEST TEXAS STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT OVER MINS WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES UP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES IN THE NORMAL
TROUBLE SPOTS. WINDS APPEAR TO AVERAGE AROUND 6 KTS UP THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP MINS FROM CRATERING. THAT SAID...IF
SPEEDS DROP BELOW 3 KTS...COULD SEE MINS APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK. OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND CLASSIC WEST TEXAS FALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION
MAY BE INTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONTS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY AT 23N
129W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL JUST BE BEGINNING TO RECOVER ON
SATURDAY SO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE TIME PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD UP OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE TROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
SUSPICIOUSLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS SOLUTIONS. THIS MAY SLOW DOWN THE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  80  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  80  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  79  47  88  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  80  47  90  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  49  90  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  80  48  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  83  49  91  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  82  49  92  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  83  52  92  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01
782
FXUS64 KLUB 141657
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SIGWX NIL.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATIONS AT FRIONA AND MULESHOE ARE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING HOUR BY HOUR.  AT 315 AM...MULESHOE
WAS COMING IN AT 34 DEGREES WHILE FRIONA WAS SITTING AT 35.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR TEMPS TO FALL WHEN WIND SPEEDS GO BELOW 5 MPH
AND THEN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IF WIND SPEEDS GO ABOVE
THAT.  IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL
TERRAIN IMPACTS OR ANYTHING THAT CAN STIR UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS DO WE GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANY KIND OF FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING OR HOLD OFF.
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT DO HIT FREEZING
ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES
BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANYTHING...FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.  DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE COOL START TO
THE MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH EVEN
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO SOME MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.  CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODELS DO KEEP SOMEWHAT
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT HELD OFF GOING AS LOW AS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.  WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING AT LEAST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS SURFACE WIND...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT CRATER LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS MORNING.  LOW TEMPS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OF PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS OCCUPYING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO AN ENERGIZED POLAR JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT LEAST TWO DISTANT TROUGHS SHOULD
MUSTER THE STRENGTH TO DELIVER US COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BY MONDAY. MOISTURE DEFICITS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT LOOK TOO HIGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY AS BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVE. THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SRN PACIFIC
WAVES ENTERING THE DESERT SW. WITH MODEST RIDGING PROGGED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE TO NO JET SUPPORT
ALOFT...OUR BELIEF IS THAT THIS TROUGHINESS WOULD SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE AND NOT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE A LA THE GFS.
RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH THIS ENERGY
SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING NEAR BAJA CA UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. WE/RE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECM
SOLUTION FOR NOW. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SECOND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
COULD SET UP A PERIOD OF COOL AND MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT BETTER ASCENT FOR POPS MAY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE LL THERMAL RIDGE COMPLETE WITH A BONE-DRY MIXING LAYER LOOK
CLASSIC FOR STRONG DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERIES THAT AFTN FOLLOWING
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  41  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  41  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  38  82  47  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  44  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  47  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  45  83  49  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  47  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
370
FXUS64 KLUB 141657
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SIGWX NIL.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATIONS AT FRIONA AND MULESHOE ARE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING HOUR BY HOUR.  AT 315 AM...MULESHOE
WAS COMING IN AT 34 DEGREES WHILE FRIONA WAS SITTING AT 35.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR TEMPS TO FALL WHEN WIND SPEEDS GO BELOW 5 MPH
AND THEN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IF WIND SPEEDS GO ABOVE
THAT.  IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL
TERRAIN IMPACTS OR ANYTHING THAT CAN STIR UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS DO WE GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANY KIND OF FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING OR HOLD OFF.
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT DO HIT FREEZING
ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES
BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANYTHING...FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.  DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE COOL START TO
THE MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH EVEN
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO SOME MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.  CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODELS DO KEEP SOMEWHAT
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT HELD OFF GOING AS LOW AS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.  WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING AT LEAST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS SURFACE WIND...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT CRATER LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS MORNING.  LOW TEMPS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OF PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS OCCUPYING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO AN ENERGIZED POLAR JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT LEAST TWO DISTANT TROUGHS SHOULD
MUSTER THE STRENGTH TO DELIVER US COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BY MONDAY. MOISTURE DEFICITS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT LOOK TOO HIGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY AS BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVE. THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SRN PACIFIC
WAVES ENTERING THE DESERT SW. WITH MODEST RIDGING PROGGED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE TO NO JET SUPPORT
ALOFT...OUR BELIEF IS THAT THIS TROUGHINESS WOULD SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE AND NOT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE A LA THE GFS.
RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH THIS ENERGY
SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING NEAR BAJA CA UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. WE/RE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECM
SOLUTION FOR NOW. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SECOND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
COULD SET UP A PERIOD OF COOL AND MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT BETTER ASCENT FOR POPS MAY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE LL THERMAL RIDGE COMPLETE WITH A BONE-DRY MIXING LAYER LOOK
CLASSIC FOR STRONG DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERIES THAT AFTN FOLLOWING
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  41  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  41  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  38  82  47  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  44  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  47  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  45  83  49  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  47  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
177
FXUS64 KLUB 141119 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATIONS AT FRIONA AND MULESHOE ARE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING HOUR BY HOUR.  AT 315 AM...MULESHOE
WAS COMING IN AT 34 DEGREES WHILE FRIONA WAS SITTING AT 35.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR TEMPS TO FALL WHEN WIND SPEEDS GO BELOW 5 MPH
AND THEN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IF WIND SPEEDS GO ABOVE
THAT.  IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL
TERRAIN IMPACTS OR ANYTHING THAT CAN STIR UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS DO WE GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANY KIND OF FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING OR HOLD OFF.
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT DO HIT FREEZING
ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES
BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANYTHING...FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.  DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE COOL START TO
THE MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH EVEN
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO SOME MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.  CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODELS DO KEEP SOMEWHAT
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT HELD OFF GOING AS LOW AS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.  WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING AT LEAST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS SURFACE WIND...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT CRATER LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS MORNING.  LOW TEMPS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OF PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS OCCUPYING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO AN ENERGIZED POLAR JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT LEAST TWO DISTANT TROUGHS SHOULD
MUSTER THE STRENGTH TO DELIVER US COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BY MONDAY. MOISTURE DEFICITS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT LOOK TOO HIGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY AS BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVE. THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SRN PACIFIC
WAVES ENTERING THE DESERT SW. WITH MODEST RIDGING PROGGED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE TO NO JET SUPPORT
ALOFT...OUR BELIEF IS THAT THIS TROUGHINESS WOULD SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE AND NOT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE A LA THE GFS.
RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH THIS ENERGY
SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING NEAR BAJA CA UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. WE/RE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECM
SOLUTION FOR NOW. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SECOND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
COULD SET UP A PERIOD OF COOL AND MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT BETTER ASCENT FOR POPS MAY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE LL THERMAL RIDGE COMPLETE WITH A BONE-DRY MIXING LAYER LOOK
CLASSIC FOR STRONG DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERIES THAT AFTN FOLLOWING
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  41  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  41  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  38  82  47  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  44  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  47  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  45  83  49  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  47  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
650
FXUS64 KLUB 140850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATIONS AT FRIONA AND MULESHOE ARE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING HOUR BY HOUR.  AT 315 AM...MULESHOE
WAS COMING IN AT 34 DEGREES WHILE FRIONA WAS SITTING AT 35.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR TEMPS TO FALL WHEN WIND SPEEDS GO BELOW 5 MPH
AND THEN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IF WIND SPEEDS GO ABOVE
THAT.  IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL
TERRAIN IMPACTS OR ANYTHING THAT CAN STIR UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS DO WE GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANY KIND OF FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING OR HOLD OFF.
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT DO HIT FREEZING
ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES
BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANYTHING...FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.  DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE COOL START TO
THE MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH EVEN
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO SOME MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.  CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODELS DO KEEP SOMEWHAT
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT HELD OFF GOING AS LOW AS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.  WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING AT LEAST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS SURFACE WIND...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT CRATER LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS MORNING.  LOW TEMPS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OF PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS OCCUPYING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO AN ENERGIZED POLAR JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT LEAST TWO DISTANT TROUGHS SHOULD
MUSTER THE STRENGTH TO DELIVER US COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BY MONDAY. MOISTURE DEFICITS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT LOOK TOO HIGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY AS BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVE. THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SRN PACIFIC
WAVES ENTERING THE DESERT SW. WITH MODEST RIDGING PROGGED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE TO NO JET SUPPORT
ALOFT...OUR BELIEF IS THAT THIS TROUGHINESS WOULD SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE AND NOT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE A LA THE GFS.
RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH THIS ENERGY
SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING NEAR BAJA CA UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. WE/RE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECM
SOLUTION FOR NOW. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SECOND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
COULD SET UP A PERIOD OF COOL AND MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT BETTER ASCENT FOR POPS MAY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE LL THERMAL RIDGE COMPLETE WITH A BONE-DRY MIXING LAYER LOOK
CLASSIC FOR STRONG DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERIES THAT AFTN FOLLOWING
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  41  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  41  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  38  82  47  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  44  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  47  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  45  83  49  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  47  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93

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