014
FXUS64 KLUB 191046
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES. THAT SAID...TSTM
COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY AFFECT KCDS AROUND 13Z
AND THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE VICINITY AT THAT
TERMINAL. INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME TSTMS DEVELOP NW OF
KLBB BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION EXPLICITLY ATTM.
IT WILL BE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL USA THIS MORNING
WITH A NOTABLE LOW COMING ASHORE THE OREGON COAST. FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...NWP HAS HINTED AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BUT
INDICATIONS THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG BEND INTO THURSDAY. WHAT DOES APPEAR IS
THAT A LIMB OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC NW LOW. THIS
WILL NO DOUBT CAUSE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE WELL NW OF US. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR...WE MUST TURN TO MORE
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ASCERTAIN IF WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTHEASTERLY INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
BE STRONGER THAN TYPICAL. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS OF ANY
BOUNDARIES IN NWP WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WINDS BACK A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
THETA-E FIELDS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
FCST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THINGS REMAINING CAPPED EAST WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO CAPTURE NEWEST THINKING
QUITE WELL AND WILL ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH BECOME ESTABLISHED AS MUCAPE OF 2KJ/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH ABOVE NORM WARMTH /MID TO UPPER 90S/. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SW OK...COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW ACROSS THE NW
PACIFIC CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. AS SUCH...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT NW OF THE CWA...FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH
CENTRAL NM MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE
TRANSPORT OF BAJA MOISTURE...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND DIURNAL
HEATING. LOCALLY...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...BUT PRECIP ACTIVITY BRUSHING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES
IS PLAUSIBLE...WITH HIGH DEPENDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SFC TROUGH. WILL HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREAS
EACH AFTN-EVENING TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...WITH 10-13 PERCENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...WARM CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE
/90S/ AS THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK ACROSS THE CWA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS BY MID-WEEK. GENERALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DOMINATE DURING THE SAID RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS NOTED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE /LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE
FAR NWRN ZONES MONDAY EVENING/. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE ON THIS AS
THE NEED FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO THIS WEAKNESS
IS DESIRED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 65 94 65 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
TULIA 92 68 94 67 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 69 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 96 69 96 69 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 94 70 96 69 95 / 10 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 69 98 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 96 70 97 68 96 / 10 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 93 70 98 71 98 / 10 20 10 10 0
SPUR 91 70 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
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