Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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690
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SE WINDS
STAYING UP ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG MAY NOT END UP BEING AS BIG A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. TIME WILL TELL. STILL...SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK AFFECTING BOTH KLBB AND KPVW WHILE OFF THE
CAPROCK CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A THREAT FOR IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE. SFC TROUGH WITH DRIER SW TO WEST WINDS TO SCOUR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EWD WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSISTING PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY...PARTICULARY ON THE CAPROCK.
BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KPVW AND KLBB BUT STAND POISED
NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM A RETURN. SHOULD THEY RETURN FIRST...
PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DECREASES AND/OR IS DELAYED UNTIL
SFC SATURATION CAN OCCUR. KCDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR
CIGS BY MID EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFR PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT STAVING OFF A PERIOD OF IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBINATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       30  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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