Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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271
FXUS64 KLUB 200939
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LEAVING QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT MAY DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWD WITH POSSIBLITY OF LOW CLOUDS THERE LATE TONIGHT. ONLY
OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INCREASES IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE INCREASES SUGGEST ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
OTHER THAN TWEAKS TO POPS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS THE NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF NRN CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. FAVORABLE MOIST TRAJECTORIES ARE ALREADY
IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NWRN GOMEX AND THIS SHOULD ONLY EXPAND IN
THE TIME AHEAD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UNDISTURBED. 00Z MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXITING THE
DESERT SW BY 06Z SAT...TRENDING NEUTRAL TILT AS IT REACHES ERN
NM BY 12Z SAT...BEFORE GOING FULL NEGATIVE TILT TO OUR EAST BY
LATE SAT. HEIGHTS FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A BIT AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES OUR DOMAIN...SO LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
MOISTENING MAY PROVE MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER OUR WRN ZONES. THE
DEEPEST COUPLED ASCENT STILL FAVORS THE ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING
UNDERNEATH A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH A STOUT LLJ TO
BOOT...SO POPS HERE NUDGED UP EVEN HIGHER. IT IS INTERESTING TO
SEE THAT SEVERAL RUNS OF SREF MEAN HAVE MAINTAINED A BROADER
SWATH OF PRECIP MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL OPER
MODELS...SO WE/LL KEEP SOME MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE POPS
DEPARTMENT OUT WEST AND NOT COMPLETELY SELL THEM SHORT A LA THE
NAM. RICH PWATS IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF POINT TO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THERE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT CITED
BY SPC APPEARS A BIT CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACKLUSTER SOUNDINGS AND
POOR SUPPORT FROM SLU AND MARS ANALOGS. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
PROFILES AND STRONG OMEGA COULD AT LEAST GARNER EPISODES OF SMALL
HAIL...BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP APPEARS LOW END FOR SEVERE IN OUR
CWA. WILL PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT WHO SHOULD HAVE MORE
TIME TO COLLABBORATE WITH SPC FOR THE UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THE TROUGH IMPLIES A STEADY
EXODUS OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY/BORDERLINE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS A MINOR TROUGH
IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THEREBY TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS MINOR WAVE WILL ALSO
DELIVER A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP FOCUS STRONGER WLY/PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TO OUR W-SWRN
ZONES BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTH SUN EVENING. THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY AND ALLOW MILDER WESTERLY BREEZES TO
RETURN. AT THE TAIL-END OF THIS FORECAST /THANKSGIVING EVE/...AN
UNWELCOME ARCTIC SURGE MAY VERY WELL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAKING FOR A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY TURKEY DAY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND OF
MAX TEMPS LOOKS TO BE A POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE ENHANCED
WARMING WE OFTEN SEE AHEAD OF THESE STRONG FRONTS. UNSEASONABLY
MILD HIGHS PER THE LATEST ECM MOS AND MEX MOS FIT THE PATTERN FAR
BETTER...BUT SINCE THIS FRONT IS A WEEK OUT WE WON/T SWEAT THE
DETAILS FOR NOW AS ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT COULD EASILY INTRODUCE MORE
THAN A SINGLE FLY TO THE OINTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  29  64  36  64 /   0   0   0  20  10
TULIA         60  30  64  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  32  64  41  65 /   0   0   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  33  66  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  34  65  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  37  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  30  10
BROWNFIELD    66  35  67  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  60  44  61 /   0   0  10  50  50
SPUR          66  35  64  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  40
ASPERMONT     68  39  65  48  64 /   0   0   0  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93

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