Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

898
FXUS64 KLUB 251124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS ERN NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TODAY...COMING AROUND TO SW AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT BACKING UPPER FLOW
ALREADY PROMOTING FALLING SFC PRESSURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
TROUGH. THAT TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS THE RESULT. INCREASE IN THICKNESSES TODAY POINT TO HIGH TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO RETARD WARMING MUCH AND TEMPS WILL AT LEAST
BE OFFSET SOME BY A MODEST DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SW WINDS.
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE WARMER MAV WILL BE
TODAYS TARGET. WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE LAYING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS COMPARED TO THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF 2014 SHOULD FAVOR LOWERED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AT LEAST TWO
ROBUST COLD FRONTS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SECOND OF
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ARCTIC CHEER OVER US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RESPECTABLE UA TROUGH CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRI MORNING WHILE SPREADING
A DEEPER ZONE OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE ATOP THE REGION UNDER STEADY
SWLY FLOW. NWP TREND OVER THE PAST DAY HAS BEEN FOR LESS TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING POTENTIAL AS MORE MODELS ARE EJECTING A LARGER PORTION
OF THE TROUGH SOONER. ECM REMAINS THE BULL OF THE CROWD WHEREAS
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS GONE TO THE BEARS...SO CONFIDENCE IN A
MEASURABLE PRECIP EVENT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IS WANING EVEN
WITH A COLD FROPA AND DECENT FN FORCING DURING THAT TIME.
LATEST SUPERBLEND IS STILL SHOWING A HIGHER POP OUTPUT DUE TO
OLDER/WETTER MODEL CONTRIBUTIONS...BUT THIS WAS MASSAGED TO BETTER
REFLECT THE DRIER TREND AS OF LATE. MAJORITY OF THE 00Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY POOR FOR ANY PRECIP DUE TO STUBBORN
DRY WEDGING AROUND 700MB...SO WE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO LATER
FORECASTS REMOVING PRECIP ALTOGETHER IF THIS THEME CONTINUES. AS
THE MEAN UA TROF AXIS MIGRATES EAST ON SAT...DEEPER SUBSIDENCE
FROM NW-SE SHOULD RID THE AREA OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS...BUT BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS STILL LOOK ON PAR THANKS TO A CHILLY RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA.

A TEMPORARY SHIFT TO DEEP ZONAL FLOW BY SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DIGGING TROF IN THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD EASILY OVERTURN SATURDAY/S
COOL AIR MASS...BUT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALREADY BE MOBILIZING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. GFS/ECM/CMC
ALL HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING OUR AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY END UP ARRIVING SEVERAL HOURS SOONER GIVEN THE USUAL
NWP BIAS SURROUNDING THESE SHALLOW AND DENSE AIR MASSES. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS GO AROUND WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS EVEN FURTHER FOR
TUE-WED AS MODELS ARE PROGGING A STOUT 1045-1054 MB SURFACE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HOWEVER MAY TEMPER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MORE THAN THE BONE CHILLING TEMPS CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY RAW MODELS. NONETHELESS...THIS COLD WAVE COULD FIT THE
BILL FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT TUE-WED WITH
ENHANCED PRECIP POTENTIAL GEARING UP AROUND NEW YEARS DAY AS THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER...USUAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
THIS FAR OUT ARE BEING GIVEN MORE WEIGHT OVER THE MINOR POPS
CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE SUPERBLEND...SO WX GRIDS REMAIN EMPTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  27  46  18  36 /   0   0  20  20  10
TULIA         61  31  52  22  37 /   0   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  32  54  23  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     60  31  55  25  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       60  33  58  26  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   60  31  57  28  40 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    60  31  58  28  39 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     61  35  59  28  39 /   0   0  10  30  10
SPUR          61  33  61  30  41 /   0   0  10  30  10
ASPERMONT     62  35  63  32  40 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.