Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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858
FXUS64 KLUB 202054
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW STILL CHURNING OVER BAJA CA. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR FROM
800-700 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING SOUTH WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA AND HELPING TO RID US OF STUBBORN
STRATUS. AS THE BAJA LOW MOBILIZES NEWD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RICHER PLUME OF PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF OUR SRN COUNTIES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THE RATE OF
SATURATION PROGGED BY A FEW MODELS FROM 06Z-12Z...SO FEEL PRECIP
STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING OUR AREA THEREAFTER WITH A
SHARP N-S GRADIENT LIKELY AS THIS MOISTENING BATTLES SHARP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS. DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING LOOKS TO UNFOLD
LOCALLY BY SAT AFTERNOON ONCE THE 700MB LOW DRAWS TRACKS ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UP EVEN FURTHER TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER
WAS RETAINED...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR PRECIP
AND DENSE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
EXITING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
SKEPTICISM EXPRESSED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT NORTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR AREA. 12Z RUN OF GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH
OVER AN INCH OF QPF FROM BROWNFIELD UP TO PADUCAH AND FARTHER SOUTH
TO ASPERMONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
NAM/ECMWF POSITION BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LIKELY POPS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IMPROVING WEATHER IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
TO THE WEST BRINGS MILD AND DRY AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE THE OTHERWISE STRONG ZONAL
NORTHERN JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS AT MID 80S WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT
ALMOST 90.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90 MID WEEK...WE ARE
LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER TRANSIENT COLD AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...ARCTIC BLASTS ARE MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE IN LATE MARCH THOUGH...WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE PROGGED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY LEAN...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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