Area Forecast Discussion
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682
FXUS64 KLUB 012129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN JUST 24 HOURS AGO. SOME
LOW STRATUS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNEVENTFUL. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BOOST WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK
INFLUENCE FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STILL BE FELT.

.LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SOME FOR TUESDAY BUT WILL ALSO
BE TAMPERED A BIT BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TAKING
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LEE SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL STILL BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE FROM THE TX/NM STATE LINE TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 114. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NAM 12 IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE ECMWF
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE
MODELS COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS. ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ALL THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS FURTHER EAST
OF THE AREA SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
ABOUT A 15-25 DEGREE COOLER DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS QUICK RETURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY HELPS SURFACE WIND TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  52  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  53  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       24  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  53  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     24  48  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          25  50  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     25  50  33  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14

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