Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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977
FXUS64 KLUB 122339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AT CDS WILL DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER THIS EVENING AS A
FRONT JOSTLES WEST OF THE TERMINAL AHEAD OF IFR CIGS. +FG IS
LIKELY HERE ALONG WITH LIFR CIGS AT LEAST BY 06Z...PERHAPS MUCH
SOONER. LBB AND PVW SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT/S LOW CIGS
AND LIGHT FOG BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY SSW WINDS AROUND NOON
SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN SLOWLY ERODED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTN...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF A
TURKEY TO PETERSBURG TO BROWNFIELD LINE. AS SUCH...THE CLOUD FREE
AREAS HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WHEREAS
UNDERNEATH THE THINNING STRATUS DECK...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WERE
MORE COMMON. TONIGHT...THE LLJ WILL KICK UP INTO THE 20-30 KT
RANGE...COUPLED THIS WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. IF
THE LAST WEEK OR SO HAS TAUGHT US ANYTHING...IT IS THAT HOW
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG WILL BECOME...DIFFERS FROM DAY TO DAY.
HENCE IT IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE ALL THE SURPRISING IF AN ISSUANCE IS
WARRANTED. AS SUCH...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT ANALYZE TONIGHT/S
SURFACE OBS AND THEREFORE BE BETTER EQUIPPED TO MAKE A MORE CONCRETE
DECISION.

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLAMMING CALIFORNIA WITH TORRENTIAL
/YET HIGHLY BENEFICIAL/ RAINFALL...IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ESE
TOWARDS THE DESERT SW TOMORROW AFTN...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE ONCE UA
RIDGE OVERHEAD TO THE EAST. SHARPENING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN A BIT WHICH
WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN. DESPITE A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE STRATUS DECK WILL DISSIPATE. A 5-6 DEGREE
TEMP SPREAD EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE TEMPS...AND WILL ELECT TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. OUR QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOOK TO
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
THE SHARP WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATE
SATURDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH
BACKING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE THIS
TIME PULLING WELL BACK TO THE WEST. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWING
IN LAST COUPLE GUIDANCE RUNS WHICH MAY DELAY MAIN LIFT AND THUNDER
CHANCES SLIGHTLY THOUGH STILL ON A FEISTY GAIT. PLENTY OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LIFT SATURDAY EVENING SO CANT RULE OUT ACTIVITY STARTING A LITTLE
BEFORE THE MAIN OMEGA FIELD. BUT WE BELIEVE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE
IN THUNDER WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
PERHAPS DEVELOPING INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OR SQUALLS. WE HAVE
ONCE MORE FAVORED HIGHER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THAN MOST BLENDED
SOLUTIONS. ENOUGH DEEP TURNING STILL FOR AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...EVEN GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND NIGHT TIME EVENT. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO US THAT POTENT.

THUNDER CHANCES THEN WILL SWEEP EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
PRONOUNCED DEEP DRYING AND COOLING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
INTO LOW-END WINDY CATEGORY BUT THE COOLING WILL HELP OFF-SET THE
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
SPREAD COOL DRY AIR SOUTHWARD TO START THE COMING WEEK WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE. BUT THE
AIRMASS SHOULD RECOVER WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE ONCE MORE ON THE PROWL BY WEDNESDAY. AN
EJECTING WEST COAST WAVE WILL BE OF QUESTIONABLE AMPLITUDE OUT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG WEST COAST LOW. WE WILL ADD LOW MENTION FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT BELIEVE FOCUS LIES WITH
THE BIG CYCLONE POTENTIAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

OF THAT SYSTEM...LOTS OF SOLUTION BOUNCING AROUND GOING ON WHICH
IS TO BE EXPECTED 6 DAYS OUT. LATEST TRENDS HAVE DEEP UPPER LOW
CROSSING OUR AREA IN A THREATENING MANNER FOR CONSIDERATION OF
WINTRY ELEMENTS STARTING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY. SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THIS PERIOD FOR
NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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