Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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383
FXUS64 KLUB 272334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT S-SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. THROUGH THE DAY A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER DRY FRONT INTO THE REGION. AFTER A
PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
HELP WARM THINGS UP ONCE AGAIN. AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SUCH ADIABATIC WARMING AS OF
LATE...HAVE ELECTED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PLEASANT SHORT TERM IS
IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
A TROUGH IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
THE LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE STILL FLEXING ITS
MUSCLE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME
OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY UNTIL DRIER NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW
MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
PINCH OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MOVING OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF STILL MOSTLY KEEPS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER SOME AREAS WILL SEE
ALL RAIN...ALL SNOW...OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WITH A LACK OF A
COLD AIR INTRUSION AT THE SURFACE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BE RAIN OFF THE CAPROCK WITH A MIX ON THE CAPROCK AND MOSTLY SNOW IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COULD EXPERIENCE SNOW THROUGHOUT OR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE EVENT. THE GFS IS BANKING ON THIS POSSIBILITY DEPICTING
NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CLOSE TO 0C FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH
GREATER VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  70  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  73  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  73  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  75  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  77  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  77  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  76  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  78  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  79  43  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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