Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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223
FXUS64 KLUB 011150
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH DEEP TROUGHING
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BE
MOVING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
OVERHEAD BUT IS NOT BRINGING MUCH EVEN IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS DUE TO A
DRY ATMOSPHERE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE WAS WEAKENING AS IT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE BUT LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION. FURTHERMORE...BY THE TIME THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD...LIFT WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED. THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST 850MB WINDS.

LONG TERM...
SUFFICIENTLY LITTLE IS DIFFERENT THROUGH TUESDAY AS SOLUTIONS HONE
IN FURTHER ON DETAILS WITH PASSAGE OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED US TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY RAIN CHANCES
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SHIFTING LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY INTO EAST AND SOUTH. THIS STILL APPEARS CAPABLE OF LEADING
TO TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS
A MINOR RISK OF LOW-LAND FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TO DWINDLE TUESDAY.

FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD REMAINS MID TO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER...WITH A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MEXICO THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT LIFT INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS CAMP REMAINS PRECIPITATION
FREE FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF GROUPS INDICATE ANOTHER ROBUST
AND POSSIBLY TROPICALLY CHARGED PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER IN THE
WEEK. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE LEAD UPPER
LOW ALBEIT TO OUR SOUTH...AS WELL AS INCREASED GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOWING A PORTION OF TRAILING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WITH
BETTER RESEMBLANCE TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. NOT TOO SURE YET
IF THESE ARE IMPORTANT ENOUGH CLUES TO JUSTIFY RAMPING SHOWER
CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BUY INTO THE DRY
SOLUTION EITHER. THUS A BLENDED LATE WEEK PATTERN IS JUSTIFIED
WITH SHOWER CHANCES IMPROVING SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO THE LATE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY TIME-FRAME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  40  73  47  67 /  10   0  10  40  60
TULIA         61  41  70  50  69 /  10   0  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     61  43  69  52  70 /  10   0  20  20  50
LEVELLAND     64  43  71  53  73 /  10   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       63  46  70  54  71 /  10   0  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   66  44  73  53  73 /  10   0  20  30  40
BROWNFIELD    65  45  71  54  72 /  10   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     62  44  69  53  73 /   0   0  20  20  40
SPUR          64  48  71  55  72 /  10   0  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     64  48  71  57  73 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

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