432
FXUS64 KLUB 110441
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS ASIDE FROM A SOUTHERLY 30 TO 40
KT LOW-LEVEL JET STARTING AROUND 500 FT AT KLBB PER THE TTU REESE
CENTER SODAR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 13Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL KEEP LLWS TAF MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF. A SIMILAR LLJ IS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE ABOUT 20 KTS OF WIND SHEAR FROM
THE SURFACE THROUGH 2000 FT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...PERHAPS A FEW WISPY CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR SKY COVER. SOILS
REMAIN MODERATELY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS AND STILL
SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD TO SOME EXTENT...HELD ON
CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ANOTHER 30-40 KNOT 850
MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MODERATELY BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING ON THE
CAP-ROCK. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER US THROUGH
FRIDAY PROVIDING HOT DRY CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY MOST OF OUR LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH MOVING TO FAR EAST
TEXAS..ARKANSAS..OR LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION ALLOWS A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH
INTO WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH WE SHOULD SEE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 15
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT IF THE THE PATTERN DOES
DEVELOP AS FORECAST...CHANCES COULD INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 PERCENT.
THIS IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT THE PATTERN BEARS WATCH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WILL STICK CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS
DID THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
102. OVERNIGHT LOWS 60S TO MID 70S. LIPE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 97 67 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 65 97 69 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 66 97 70 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 64 97 70 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 97 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 64 95 70 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 96 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 99 73 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 98 73 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 98 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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