Area Forecast Discussion
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443
FXUS64 KLUB 171152 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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