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554
FXUS64 KLUB 221142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AT KLBB SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY AROUND 14Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR
WITH PERHAPS TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
BRUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF KLBB AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS WANED. THUS WILL DROP THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND
SUNDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF SUBTLE FORCING FROM ODILE/S LEFTOVER ENERGY AS WELL
AS HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE CAPROCK.
THIS REDUCTION IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE RESULT OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OFF INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WHILE REMAINING IN THE 60S WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. WHILE AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINS FROM MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF FLOODING
CONCERNS...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DECREASE IN FORCING WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

STEERING FLOW VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
PUSH ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST AND ULTIMATELY ALLOW IT
TO DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A CUT OFF LOW SCOOTING UNDER A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS.  OUR FLOW WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE HIGH
WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM BAJA TO MANITOBA AND BEYOND BY THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST NEXT WEEKEND.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORMS ONCE AGAIN
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE SOCAL LOW.  ALL IN
ALL...A PRETTY MESSY AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE.

OUR PATTERN IS QUITE WEAKLY FORCED INITIALLY THUS MAKING IT HARD TO
NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE EACH DAY.  AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS NWP
DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH.  THE THETA-E RIDGE IS THE BEST
INDICATOR OF WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST. THETA-E
FIELDS APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES THOUGH THE
MORPHOLOGY CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. ALL IN ALL...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A FAIR BIT ON POPS WED AND THU. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND
TREND ACCORDINGLY THOUGH AM HESITANT TO DRY THINGS OUT AS MUCH AS
NWP SUGGEST GIVEN THE INTER- RUN INCONSISTENCY. AFTER THINGS DRY
OUT..NEXT SHOT OF STORMS MAY COME INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY DEVELOP THOUGH THE GFS AND ECM DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR US ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  57  81  56  81 /  50  40  10  20  30
TULIA         78  57  82  58  83 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     77  59  80  59  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     77  59  80  59  81 /  40  30  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       77  61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   79  60  81  59  81 /  50  30  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    79  59  80  59  82 /  50  30  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     82  61  86  63  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
SPUR          81  60  84  61  84 /  20  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     84  63  87  63  86 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
205
FXUS64 KLUB 220917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS WANED. THUS WILL DROP THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND
SUNDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF SUBTLE FORCING FROM ODILE/S LEFTOVER ENERGY AS WELL
AS HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ON THE CAPROCK.
THIS REDUCTION IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE RESULT OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OFF INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WHILE REMAINING IN THE 60S WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. WHILE AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINS FROM MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF FLOODING
CONCERNS...MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE DECREASE IN FORCING WILL REDUCE
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

STEERING FLOW VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL
PUSH ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE EAST AND ULTIMATELY ALLOW IT
TO DISSIPATE IN THE DRIER AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE A CUT OFF LOW SCOOTING UNDER A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS.  OUR FLOW WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE HIGH
WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM BAJA TO MANITOBA AND BEYOND BY THURSDAY
MORNING YIELDING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST NEXT WEEKEND.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORMS ONCE AGAIN
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE SOCAL LOW.  ALL IN
ALL...A PRETTY MESSY AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SYNOPTIC PICTURE.

OUR PATTERN IS QUITE WEAKLY FORCED INITIALLY THUS MAKING IT HARD TO
NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE EACH DAY.  AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS NWP
DATA...WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH.  THE THETA-E RIDGE IS THE BEST
INDICATOR OF WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST. THETA-E
FIELDS APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES THOUGH THE
MORPHOLOGY CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN. ALL IN ALL...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF A FAIR BIT ON POPS WED AND THU. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AND
TREND ACCORDINGLY THOUGH AM HESITANT TO DRY THINGS OUT AS MUCH AS
NWP SUGGEST GIVEN THE INTER- RUN INCONSISTENCY. AFTER THINGS DRY
OUT..NEXT SHOT OF STORMS MAY COME INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY DEVELOP THOUGH THE GFS AND ECM DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR US ATTM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  57  81  56  81 /  50  40  10  20  30
TULIA         78  57  82  58  83 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     77  59  80  59  81 /  30  30  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     77  59  80  59  81 /  40  30  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       77  61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   79  60  81  59  81 /  50  30  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    79  59  80  59  82 /  50  30  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     82  61  86  63  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
SPUR          81  60  84  61  84 /  20  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     84  63  87  63  86 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/26
771
FXUS64 KLUB 220437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBB TO
START WITH SHOULD SEE LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH RISK OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. AIRMASS AT
KCDS STARTING OUT WARMER AND DRIER AND EXPECTED TO SEE EVEN LOWER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN EARLY MONDAY. STILL...WE FAVORED AN MVFR LAYER
CLOUD DECK SPREADING OVER KCDS EARLY MONDAY AS WELL BY DAYBREAK.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY INTENSE LINE OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED RELATED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST OF KCDS
WESTWARD. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDER PREVIOUSLY AROUND KLBB HAS
MOSTLY DWINDLED. BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST
ENOUGH AND UPSLOPISH AT KLBB FOR STRATUS TO RETURN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH FLOODING CONCERNS AGAIN AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST.

A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING
EXPANDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENHANCED WITH THE ADDITION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ADDING TO THE RAIN INTENSITY. THE GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THERE. IN FACT...HERE AT THE SCIENCE
SPECTRUM WE RECORDED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID ALSO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN THROUGH 12Z.

OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
HAS LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEK...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOWER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. GIVEN THIS...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT THE ALREADY SOAKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...THUS THE REGION FOR THE EXTENSION IN TIME ON FLOOD WATCH.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE STATE LINE SO
THE RISK FOR MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST THERE...AND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED AND EXTENDED IN TIME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY THANKS TO THE PASSING FRONT...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FINE
DESPITE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE. PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS AS HAS BEEN SHOWN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKNESS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED INSOLATION...AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTN GIVEN GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  72  59  78  59 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         59  73  59  80  61 /  40  30  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  73  59  79  60 /  40  30  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  74  60  79  62 /  50  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  74  60  79  62 /  40  30  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  75  62  79  62 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  76  61  79  62 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  83  64 /  40  20  30  20  20
SPUR          64  77  61  82  64 /  40  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  62  85  66 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027-028-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
771
FXUS64 KLUB 220437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KLBB TO
START WITH SHOULD SEE LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH RISK OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. AIRMASS AT
KCDS STARTING OUT WARMER AND DRIER AND EXPECTED TO SEE EVEN LOWER
DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN EARLY MONDAY. STILL...WE FAVORED AN MVFR LAYER
CLOUD DECK SPREADING OVER KCDS EARLY MONDAY AS WELL BY DAYBREAK.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY INTENSE LINE OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED RELATED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST OF KCDS
WESTWARD. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDER PREVIOUSLY AROUND KLBB HAS
MOSTLY DWINDLED. BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST
ENOUGH AND UPSLOPISH AT KLBB FOR STRATUS TO RETURN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH FLOODING CONCERNS AGAIN AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST.

A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING
EXPANDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENHANCED WITH THE ADDITION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ADDING TO THE RAIN INTENSITY. THE GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THERE. IN FACT...HERE AT THE SCIENCE
SPECTRUM WE RECORDED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID ALSO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN THROUGH 12Z.

OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
HAS LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEK...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOWER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. GIVEN THIS...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT THE ALREADY SOAKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...THUS THE REGION FOR THE EXTENSION IN TIME ON FLOOD WATCH.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE STATE LINE SO
THE RISK FOR MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST THERE...AND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED AND EXTENDED IN TIME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY THANKS TO THE PASSING FRONT...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FINE
DESPITE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE. PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS AS HAS BEEN SHOWN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKNESS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED INSOLATION...AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTN GIVEN GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  72  59  78  59 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         59  73  59  80  61 /  40  30  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  73  59  79  60 /  40  30  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  74  60  79  62 /  50  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  74  60  79  62 /  40  30  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  75  62  79  62 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  76  61  79  62 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  83  64 /  40  20  30  20  20
SPUR          64  77  61  82  64 /  40  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  62  85  66 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027-028-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
629
FXUS64 KLUB 212347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY INTENSE LINE OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED RELATED TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST WEST OF KCDS
WESTWARD. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDER PREVIOUSLY AROUND KLBB HAS
MOSTLY DWINDLED. BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LINE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IN THAT AREA FOR NOW. OTHERWISE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST
ENOUGH AND UPSLOPISH AT KLBB FOR STRATUS TO RETURN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH FLOODING CONCERNS AGAIN AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST.

A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING
EXPANDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENHANCED WITH THE ADDITION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ADDING TO THE RAIN INTENSITY. THE GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THERE. IN FACT...HERE AT THE SCIENCE
SPECTRUM WE RECORDED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID ALSO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN THROUGH 12Z.

OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
HAS LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEK...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOWER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. GIVEN THIS...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT THE ALREADY SOAKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...THUS THE REGION FOR THE EXTENSION IN TIME ON FLOOD WATCH.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE STATE LINE SO
THE RISK FOR MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST THERE...AND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED AND EXTENDED IN TIME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY THANKS TO THE PASSING FRONT...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FINE
DESPITE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE. PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS AS HAS BEEN SHOWN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKNESS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED INSOLATION...AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTN GIVEN GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  72  59  78  59 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         59  73  59  80  61 /  40  30  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  73  59  79  60 /  40  30  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  74  60  79  62 /  50  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  74  60  79  62 /  40  30  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  75  62  79  62 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  76  61  79  62 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  83  64 /  40  20  30  20  20
SPUR          64  77  61  82  64 /  40  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  62  85  66 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027-028-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
020
FXUS64 KLUB 212019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH FLOODING CONCERNS AGAIN AT THE
TOP OF THE LIST.

A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAVING
EXPANDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS RAINFALL HAS RECENTLY BEEN ENHANCED WITH THE ADDITION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...FURTHER
ADDING TO THE RAIN INTENSITY. THE GREATEST CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THERE. IN FACT...HERE AT THE SCIENCE
SPECTRUM WE RECORDED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID ALSO
EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO RUN THROUGH 12Z.

OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK FRONT
BACKDOORS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INSTABILITY FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS AREA
HAS LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THE RAIN THIS PAST WEEK...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOWER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG THROUGH
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
GOING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. GIVEN THIS...THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT THE ALREADY SOAKED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...THUS THE REGION FOR THE EXTENSION IN TIME ON FLOOD WATCH.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE NEAR THE STATE LINE SO
THE RISK FOR MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST THERE...AND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RECONFIGURED AND EXTENDED IN TIME LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY THANKS TO THE PASSING FRONT...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY
TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL SEE THE LAST OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FINE
DESPITE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MOSTLY PRECIP-FREE. PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS AS HAS BEEN SHOWN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FCST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKNESS
AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY STEMMING FROM WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED INSOALATION...AND LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTN GIVEN GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  72  59  78  59 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         59  73  59  80  61 /  40  30  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  73  59  79  60 /  40  30  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     63  74  60  79  62 /  50  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       62  73  60  79  62 /  40  30  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   64  75  62  79  62 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  76  61  79  62 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  83  64 /  40  20  30  20  20
SPUR          64  77  61  82  64 /  40  20  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  62  85  66 /  30  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027-028-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/07
472
FXUS64 KLUB 211746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. KCDS COULD
ALSO SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A FRONT EDGES IN FROM THE NORTH...AND BRIEF SUB-VFR
EXCURSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT KCDS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO KCDS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...KLBB WILL LIKELY SEE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD EARLY MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY LIFT CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND OR AFTER 12Z
AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THE MOISTURE WAS STILL BE ACTED UPON WHAT REMAINS OF
ODILE AND IT WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY TROPICAL
RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WHERE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AROUND
A SMALL CIRCULATION /CENTERED BETWEEN CARLSBAD AND ENICE NM/.
FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
MORE SCATTERED BUT WAS STILL LOCALLY HEAVY. THANKFULLY...SO FAR
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES LOCALLY HAVE BEEN SMALL AND MOVING ENOUGH
TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HOWEVER...BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK INCH
OR TWO AND THIS COULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THEY HAVE HAD THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ACTIVITY AND SHOULD IT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OR SLOW...FUTURE
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
VALID TODAY.

WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL WANING TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL
RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH INSOLATION RESULTS IN A UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE THEY ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SUN.
FURTHER ENHANCING THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EDGE IN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME /AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY/ TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE SATURATED SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. A DECISION ON THIS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THOSE HOPING FOR A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAINS...IT DOES APPEAR
DRIER AIR MAY BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...THOUGH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY UNTIL A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH
COMBINED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING
TO AT LEAST MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE TSRA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR NOW WITH A REDUCTION TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS
SHOULD VARY BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  72  56  78  57 /  50  50  40  10  20
TULIA         58  73  57  78  58 /  40  40  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  72  58  78  59 /  40  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  73  58  78  59 /  50  50  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       62  72  59  78  62 /  40  50  40  20  10
DENVER CITY   64  75  58  79  59 /  50  50  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  75  59  79  60 /  50  50  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     62  81  60  82  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
SPUR          64  77  59  81  61 /  30  30  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     65  81  61  83  62 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

23/07/23
467
FXUS64 KLUB 211554 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1054 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THE MOISTURE WAS STILL BE ACTED UPON WHAT REMAINS OF
ODILE AND IT WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY TROPICAL
RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WHERE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AROUND
A SMALL CIRCULATION /CENTERED BETWEEN CARLSBAD AND ENICE NM/.
FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
MORE SCATTERED BUT WAS STILL LOCALLY HEAVY. THANKFULLY...SO FAR
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES LOCALLY HAVE BEEN SMALL AND MOVING ENOUGH
TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HOWEVER...BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK INCH
OR TWO AND THIS COULD AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THEY HAVE HAD THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ACTIVITY AND SHOULD IT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OR SLOW...FUTURE
FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
VALID TODAY.

WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL WANING TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL
RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH INSOLATION RESULTS IN A UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE THEY ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SUN.
FURTHER ENHANCING THE STORM CHANCES WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EDGE IN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME /AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY/ TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE SATURATED SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. A DECISION ON THIS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THOSE HOPING FOR A REPRIEVE FROM THE RAINS...IT DOES APPEAR
DRIER AIR MAY BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...THOUGH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY UNTIL A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH
COMBINED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING
TO AT LEAST MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE TSRA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR NOW WITH A REDUCTION TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS
SHOULD VARY BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  59  72  56  78 /  60  50  50  40  10
TULIA         78  58  73  57  78 /  50  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     78  59  72  58  78 /  50  40  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     76  64  73  58  78 /  70  50  50  40  20
LUBBOCK       78  62  72  59  78 /  50  40  50  40  20
DENVER CITY   75  64  75  58  79 /  70  50  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    75  65  75  59  79 /  70  50  50  40  20
CHILDRESS     85  62  81  60  82 /  40  30  20  20  20
SPUR          80  64  77  59  81 /  40  30  30  40  20
ASPERMONT     84  65  81  61  83 /  40  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

23/07
858
FXUS64 KLUB 211144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. LIFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY UNTIL A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKES PLACE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH
COMBINED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING
TO AT LEAST MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN HERE WILL BE TSRA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SO HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR NOW WITH A REDUCTION TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS
SHOULD VARY BETWEEN EAST/NORTHEAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  59  72  56  78 /  60  50  50  40  10
TULIA         78  58  73  57  78 /  50  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     78  59  72  58  78 /  50  40  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     76  64  73  58  78 /  70  50  50  40  20
LUBBOCK       78  62  72  59  78 /  50  40  50  40  20
DENVER CITY   75  64  75  58  79 /  70  50  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    75  65  75  59  79 /  70  50  50  40  20
CHILDRESS     85  62  81  60  82 /  40  30  20  20  20
SPUR          80  64  77  59  81 /  40  30  30  40  20
ASPERMONT     84  65  81  61  83 /  40  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31
395
FXUS64 KLUB 210918
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
418 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER ENERGY STEMMING FROM ODILE HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN. UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY...KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. NLDN DATA SHOW ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY
RIGHT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS CIRCULATION...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AMONG EXISTING SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
MORNING GIVEN DEEP LAYER SATURATION ATOP SOAKED GROUNDS.

ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WILL INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN BECOME
STRONG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE BEST INSOLATION CAN BE
REALIZED...LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE NEAR 2 KJ/KG OF CAPE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS IN A
SEEMINGLY BENIGN SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN...MINUS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LACKLUSTER.

ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
COMBINE WITH EXISTING CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM ODILE BY LATE DAY
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...AND GARZA COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR
DETAILS ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING UNFOLDS TODAY AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DECIDE ON THE
NEED FOR FURTHER EXTENDING THE WATCH.

AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN AS LOCATIONS TO THE EAST MAKE IT INTO THE LOW-MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BEHIND
THE COOL FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SRN
CONUS THOUGH THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AS AN EMBEDDED LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DRAGGING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DEEPEN AND HANG AROUND JUST
OFF THE BC COAST ABOUT 130W THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER
GYRATION AND DIPPING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL PERSIST FOR US MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNTIL VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
ON TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ALOFT AS WEST COAST SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...IT IS EXPECTED THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY IN OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY.  GUIDANCE POINTS TO A DRIER PERIOD
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
THETA-E RIDGE IS POISED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST SHOT AT POPS WILL BE. TUESDAY NIGHT IT
SEEMS AS IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY AND
THIS MAY TRIGGER LIGHT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA
THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH WITH SILENT POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE LEVEL
BOTH...AIR AND GROUND...SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE THE DIURNAL RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE DOUBLE MTN FORK OF THE BRAZOS HAD ANOTHER EXCURSION
ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON SATURDAY AND HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY SINCE 00Z
SUNDAY.  WE WILL CLOSE OUT A FINAL FLOOD STATEMENT / RIVER FCST FOR
THAT FCST POINT LATER THIS MORNING.

PLEASE SEE LBBPNSLUB FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  59  72  56  78 /  60  50  50  40  10
TULIA         78  58  73  57  78 /  50  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     78  59  72  58  78 /  50  40  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     76  64  73  58  78 /  70  50  50  40  20
LUBBOCK       78  62  72  59  78 /  50  40  50  40  20
DENVER CITY   75  64  75  58  79 /  70  50  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    75  65  75  59  79 /  70  50  50  40  20
CHILDRESS     85  62  81  60  82 /  40  30  20  20  20
SPUR          80  64  77  59  81 /  40  30  30  40  20
ASPERMONT     84  65  81  61  83 /  40  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31/31
539
FXUS64 KLUB 210442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FAIRLY SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BLANKETS THE AREA RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FAVOR LOWER CLOUDS SLIPPING IN
BENEATH. LATEST RUC/HRRR/WRF NAM ALL BREAK OUT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS KLBB LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR THUNDER CHANCES
LATER SUNDAY. FAVORED MORE STRATIFIED ELEMENTS FOR NOW WITH A LIFR
DECK SETTLING ACROSS KLBB EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN NEAR
KCDS AGAIN CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL READDRESS
THUNDER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY AT BOTH SITES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO COALESCE TOWARDS CENTER OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED
NEAR BROWNFIELD ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND -TSRA OVER ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. PLENTY MOIST STILL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB WHICH MAY DROP
INTO LIFR LEVELS BY MID OR LATE EVENING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE A BIT FURTHER
WEST SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR EACH TAF SITE BY MID OR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WE
DID SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...FROM BROWNFIELD AND MEADOW TO
SOUTH OF POST...EARLIER TODAY. SEVERAL SPOTS RECORDED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER SPOTS BETWEEN THE GAGES. JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE GAIL WEST TEXAS MESONET RECORDED NEARLY
11 INCHES TODAY!

WE HAVE SEEN THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WANE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK HEATING HAS LED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
WE EXPECT THIS MORE ISOLATE ACTIVITY TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORE TROPICAL RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOES APPEAR THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A
BIT TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. STILL...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING NEAR SUNDOWN
AND NOT MOVING MUCH...AND THIS COULD PERHAPS BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOCATIONS FROM
YOAKUM TO GARZA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL...AND
THAT THESE LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY /10Z/. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TO THIS POINT
HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHTER AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE HAVE
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
REMAINING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN BOTH TIME AND AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL RAINS DO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER ANOTHER START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG...WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BACKDOOR FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST
ZONES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER CAN OCCUR...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE WEAK /THOUGH
SLIGHTLY UP FROM RECENT DAYS/.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
LAST HURRAH FOR REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL COME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS TIMING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO PROG A NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO
TO THE NRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH DESTABILIZATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A LITTLE
BETTER MID AND UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST AT THAT POINT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY WIDENING. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING AIR MASS
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  61  72  58 /  20  60  50  50  40
TULIA         63  78  61  74  59 /  20  50  40  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  78  62  74  60 /  30  50  40  40  40
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  74  62 /  50  60  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       66  77  63  75  63 /  40  50  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  84  63  79  61 /  20  30  30  20  30
SPUR          68  81  64  77  64 /  50  40  30  30  40
ASPERMONT     69  84  66  80  66 /  50  40  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
539
FXUS64 KLUB 210442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FAIRLY SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD LAYER BLANKETS THE AREA RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FAVOR LOWER CLOUDS SLIPPING IN
BENEATH. LATEST RUC/HRRR/WRF NAM ALL BREAK OUT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS KLBB LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR THUNDER CHANCES
LATER SUNDAY. FAVORED MORE STRATIFIED ELEMENTS FOR NOW WITH A LIFR
DECK SETTLING ACROSS KLBB EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN NEAR
KCDS AGAIN CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL READDRESS
THUNDER CHANCES LATER SUNDAY AT BOTH SITES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO COALESCE TOWARDS CENTER OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED
NEAR BROWNFIELD ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND -TSRA OVER ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. PLENTY MOIST STILL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB WHICH MAY DROP
INTO LIFR LEVELS BY MID OR LATE EVENING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE A BIT FURTHER
WEST SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR EACH TAF SITE BY MID OR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WE
DID SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...FROM BROWNFIELD AND MEADOW TO
SOUTH OF POST...EARLIER TODAY. SEVERAL SPOTS RECORDED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER SPOTS BETWEEN THE GAGES. JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE GAIL WEST TEXAS MESONET RECORDED NEARLY
11 INCHES TODAY!

WE HAVE SEEN THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WANE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK HEATING HAS LED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
WE EXPECT THIS MORE ISOLATE ACTIVITY TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORE TROPICAL RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOES APPEAR THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A
BIT TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. STILL...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING NEAR SUNDOWN
AND NOT MOVING MUCH...AND THIS COULD PERHAPS BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOCATIONS FROM
YOAKUM TO GARZA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL...AND
THAT THESE LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY /10Z/. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TO THIS POINT
HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHTER AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE HAVE
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
REMAINING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN BOTH TIME AND AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL RAINS DO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER ANOTHER START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG...WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BACKDOOR FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST
ZONES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER CAN OCCUR...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE WEAK /THOUGH
SLIGHTLY UP FROM RECENT DAYS/.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
LAST HURRAH FOR REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL COME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS TIMING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO PROG A NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO
TO THE NRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH DESTABILIZATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A LITTLE
BETTER MID AND UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST AT THAT POINT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY WIDENING. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING AIR MASS
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  61  72  58 /  20  60  50  50  40
TULIA         63  78  61  74  59 /  20  50  40  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  78  62  74  60 /  30  50  40  40  40
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  74  62 /  50  60  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       66  77  63  75  63 /  40  50  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  84  63  79  61 /  20  30  30  20  30
SPUR          68  81  64  77  64 /  50  40  30  30  40
ASPERMONT     69  84  66  80  66 /  50  40  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
921
FXUS64 KLUB 202328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO COALESCE TOWARDS CENTER OF BEST LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED
NEAR BROWNFIELD ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. CURRENT SHOWERS
AND -TSRA OVER ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE
EVENING. PLENTY MOIST STILL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB WHICH MAY DROP
INTO LIFR LEVELS BY MID OR LATE EVENING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE A BIT FURTHER
WEST SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR EACH TAF SITE BY MID OR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WE
DID SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...FROM BROWNFIELD AND MEADOW TO
SOUTH OF POST...EARLIER TODAY. SEVERAL SPOTS RECORDED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER SPOTS BETWEEN THE GAGES. JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE GAIL WEST TEXAS MESONET RECORDED NEARLY
11 INCHES TODAY!

WE HAVE SEEN THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WANE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK HEATING HAS LED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
WE EXPECT THIS MORE ISOLATE ACTIVITY TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORE TROPICAL RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOES APPEAR THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A
BIT TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. STILL...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING NEAR SUNDOWN
AND NOT MOVING MUCH...AND THIS COULD PERHAPS BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOCATIONS FROM
YOAKUM TO GARZA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL...AND
THAT THESE LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY /10Z/. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TO THIS POINT
HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHTER AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE HAVE
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
REMAINING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN BOTH TIME AND AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL RAINS DO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER ANOTHER START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG...WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BACKDOOR FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST
ZONES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER CAN OCCUR...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE WEAK /THOUGH
SLIGHTLY UP FROM RECENT DAYS/.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
LAST HURRAH FOR REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL COME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS TIMING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO PROG A NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO
TO THE NRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH DESTABILIZATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A LITTLE
BETTER MID AND UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST AT THAT POINT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY WIDENING. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING AIR MASS
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  61  72  58 /  20  60  50  50  40
TULIA         63  78  61  74  59 /  20  50  40  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  78  62  74  60 /  30  50  40  40  40
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  74  62 /  50  60  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       66  77  63  75  63 /  40  50  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  84  63  79  61 /  20  30  30  20  30
SPUR          68  81  64  77  64 /  50  40  30  30  40
ASPERMONT     69  84  66  80  66 /  50  40  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
726
FXUS64 KLUB 202028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WE
DID SEE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...FROM BROWNFIELD AND MEADOW TO
SOUTH OF POST...EARLIER TODAY. SEVERAL SPOTS RECORDED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH LIKELY SOME HEAVIER SPOTS BETWEEN THE GAGES. JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE GAIL WEST TEXAS MESONET RECORDED NEARLY
11 INCHES TODAY!

WE HAVE SEEN THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS
WANE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AS WEAK HEATING HAS LED TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
WE EXPECT THIS MORE ISOLATE ACTIVITY TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE MORE TROPICAL RAINS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT
DOES APPEAR THE RICHEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A
BIT TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES. STILL...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE RISK OF MORE HEAVY
RAIN...PARTICULARLY TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN FACT...VISIBLE
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SPINNING NEAR SUNDOWN
AND NOT MOVING MUCH...AND THIS COULD PERHAPS BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOCATIONS FROM
YOAKUM TO GARZA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL...AND
THAT THESE LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY /10Z/. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TO THIS POINT
HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHTER AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE HAVE
DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE
REMAINING WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN BOTH TIME AND AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROPICAL RAINS DO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

REGARDLESS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AFTER ANOTHER START TO THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG...WE MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION...WOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BACKDOOR FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST
ZONES MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS. WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER CAN OCCUR...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE WEAK /THOUGH
SLIGHTLY UP FROM RECENT DAYS/.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S POSSIBLE OFF
THE CAPROCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LAST HURRAH FOR REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL COME MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS TIMING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SO HAVE RAISED POPS
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS NUDGE
POPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO PROG A NARROW UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN NEXICO
TO THE NRN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH...IN PARTICULAR WITH DESTABILIZATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...TO RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. A LITTLE
BETTER MID AND UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST AT THAT POINT.

AS FOR TEMPS...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY WIDENING. A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND DRYING AIR MASS
LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  61  72  58 /  20  60  50  50  40
TULIA         63  78  61  74  59 /  20  50  40  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  78  62  74  60 /  30  50  40  40  40
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  74  62 /  50  60  40  50  50
LUBBOCK       66  77  63  75  63 /  40  50  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  74  64  76  64 /  70  60  40  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  84  63  79  61 /  20  30  30  20  30
SPUR          68  81  64  77  64 /  50  40  30  30  40
ASPERMONT     69  84  66  80  66 /  50  40  30  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ039>042.

&&

$$

23/07
075
FXUS64 KLUB 201742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT RICH MOISTURE HAS KEPT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT
KCDS TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KLBB AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN RE-ENVELOP KLBB THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF WORSE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS /PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM/ COULD ALSO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  75  58  75  59 /  30  50  40  50  20
TULIA         62  77  61  76  60 /  30  50  30  40  20
PLAINVIEW     64  77  61  77  62 /  40  50  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  77  61  78  61 /  50  60  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       65  77  63  78  65 /  60  60  30  40  20
DENVER CITY   66  77  60  79  62 /  60  60  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  77  60  79  61 /  60  60  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     69  83  66  81  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
SPUR          66  81  64  82  64 /  60  50  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  66  83  66 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07/23
166
FXUS64 KLUB 201641 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  80  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  80  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07
040
FXUS64 KLUB 201127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31
535
FXUS64 KLUB 200851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31/26
791
FXUS64 KLUB 200433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST MORE ADVERSELY AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING UNDER EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01
791
FXUS64 KLUB 200433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST MORE ADVERSELY AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING UNDER EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01
748
FXUS64 KLUB 192342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE LOW CIGS...LOWERED
VISBYS...AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB WILL LIKELY DROP INTO IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIKELY IMPROVE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01
215
FXUS64 KLUB 191956
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07
688
FXUS64 KLUB 191748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS IN AT THE TERMINALS TODAY
THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE SCATTERED THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE MEANING A CONTINUED RISK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. CIGS
AT KCDS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED TO VFR AND THEY MAY REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR IFR
LATE TONIGHT. KLBB WAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE AT KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWER CHANCES AT
KCDS. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS ATTM. FUTURE AMENDMENTS FOR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES AND SHOWER/STORMS ARE A GOOD BET OVER THE COMING
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  63  79  61 /  80  40  30  40  30
TULIA         65  73  65  82  62 /  80  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  65  80  62 /  80  60  50  40  30
LEVELLAND     65  75  65  75  63 /  80  50  50  50  30
LUBBOCK       65  75  65  77  63 /  80  60  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  66  75  63 /  80  60  40  50  30
BROWNFIELD    66  76  66  75  64 /  80  60  50  60  30
CHILDRESS     69  79  67  86  65 /  90  70  40  30  30
SPUR          67  78  67  82  64 /  90  70  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     68  83  69  84  66 /  90  70  50  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07/23
111
FXUS64 KLUB 191608 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  50  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  50  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07
878
FXUS64 KLUB 191152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31
068
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/26
049
FXUS64 KLUB 190448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KLBB WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER
INTO LIFR TERRITORY AND POSSIBLY VLIFR. AS THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MORE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY FIRST
AFFECTING KLBB. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN THE TAF DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01
965
FXUS64 KLUB 182338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE LOW
CIGS/VISBYS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY NON-VFR...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01
646
FXUS64 KLUB 182034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23
451
FXUS64 KLUB 181750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
REMAINS OF TS ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS WILL FAVOR
DEEP LIFT AND PREVAILING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR KLBB.
AIRMASS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KLBB APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
DESTABILIZING AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES. A WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
NOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS BY 20Z AND APPROACH
KLBB 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THUNDER
CHANCES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NECESSARILY CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT KLBB BUT THE BREAKS ARE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT OR TIME.
MORE STRATIFORM ENVIRONMENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RISK KLBB ESPECIALLY AND MOSTLY IFR
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  74  61  82  59 /  60  70  60  30  30
TULIA         64  77  63  80  62 /  50  70  60  50  30
PLAINVIEW     64  77  63  80  62 /  60  70  60  50  30
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  81  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
LUBBOCK       67  77  66  81  65 /  70  70  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   66  78  64  84  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
BROWNFIELD    67  78  64  83  64 /  70  70  60  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  83  67  80  66 /  50  50  60  60  40
SPUR          67  80  65  82  66 /  60  50  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     69  85  69  85  68 /  60  50  60  50  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05
656
FXUS64 KLUB 181505 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  70  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  70  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  90  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  90  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  80  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  80  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  70  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  90  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  80  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23
685
FXUS64 KLUB 181130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/26
699
FXUS64 KLUB 180822
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EAST TO WEST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
/WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  66  81 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/29
144
FXUS64 KLUB 180444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR KCDS
AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KLBB BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KCDS. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VISBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
110
FXUS64 KLUB 172334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KLBB DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE MOIST
GROUND...LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BOTH
AT KLBB AND KCDS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KCDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
629
FXUS64 KLUB 172041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
300
FXUS64 KLUB 171754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL THIN BRIEFLY NEAR AND WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING RAPID SURFACE WARMING...WHICH THEN WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ERUPTION BY MIDDAY AS SHOWN BY SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS. ALREADY SEEING TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF
CLOVIS. THIS VALIDATES A TEMPO -TSRA GROUP FOR KLBB LATER TODAY.
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO MORE GENERAL
RAIN. MOST SOLUTIONS STILL KEEP BULK OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
KCDS...THOUGH CERTAINLY EXPECT SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KCDS AT SOME
POINT AS THIS WET REGIME OVERTAKES AREAS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH
SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS...KLBB VERY WELL WILL HAVE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS...AND ALSO LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COOLER RAIN PREVAILS. LIGHT FOG ALSO GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KLBB.
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS HOWEVER WILL NOT BE EXPLICITLY FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  60  77  60 /  40  60  50  60  60
TULIA         62  81  62  80  62 /  30  40  40  60  60
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  50  60  40  60  60
LEVELLAND     63  77  62  78  63 /  60  60  50  60  60
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  65 /  60  60  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   64  76  63  80  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
BROWNFIELD    64  78  63  79  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
CHILDRESS     66  86  66  81  66 /  20  40  20  50  50
SPUR          66  82  65  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  50
ASPERMONT     68  84  68  84  68 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
132
FXUS64 KLUB 171109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  64  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
789
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
789
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
903
FXUS64 KLUB 162348 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KLBB IS A DIFFERENT STORY. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT
NOW WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CEILINGS VFR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CEILING HEIGHTS DOWN INTO LOW MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS LOW ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
646
FXUS64 KLUB 162027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
863
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TODAY. WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT WILL FAVOR BEST SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
SOUTH OF KCDS TODAY...AND LIKELY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KLBB AS WELL
THOUGH A CLOSER CALL HERE. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT
PERHAPS ADVECTING TOWARDS KLBB. ADDED A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD
TOMORROW MORNING TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  81  60  79  61 /  20  20  20  30  40
TULIA         62  83  62  80  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  81  62  79  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  78  63  78  64 /  20  30  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       66  79  65  79  65 /  20  30  20  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  63  76  64 /  30  50  40  40  40
BROWNFIELD    66  78  65  78  65 /  20  40  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  86  66  86  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  67  82  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  84  69  84  68 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
096
FXUS64 KLUB 161131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RB/TL
594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
605
FXUS64 KLUB 160219 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31
394
FXUS64 KLUB 152341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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