Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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128
FXUS64 KLUB 232335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF KLBB LIKELY TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME 18Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND SFC-BASED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTN. IN BOTH CASES
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT TOO SMALL TO INSERT MENTION
IN EITHER TAF. ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT OF THE QUESTION BUT SIGNAL IS LOW
AND HAVE THUS KEPT BOTH TAFS OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE HAS ONLY A WEAK
REFLECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TEXAS...BUT AN ACCOMPANYING MODEST
MID-LVL WIND MAX MOVING OUT OF ERN NM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS ALSO PLENTIFUL RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PERHAPS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION CONTRIBUTION FROM A MESO-SCALE
CIRCULATION OVER SE NM INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS MEAGER...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SWWD FROM WRN KS TO ERN NM. FINALLY...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SE NM....MOVING EAST TOWARD OUR SW COUNTIES. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL FOR
CELL ORGANIZATION/STRONG STORMS...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN MID-LVL WINDS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ERN SPLNS INTO THE WRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MLCAPES EXCEED 1000
J/KG. THE UPPER WAVE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST LLJ SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GOING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY TEND MORE ISOLATED. ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BEND BACK TO THE SW AND STILL
PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVER THE AREA. WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S INTO THE LOWER 80S SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR
TO TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH QPF
WED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND IS ALSO SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY GET
GOING PRETTY EARLY...IF NOT JUST CONTINUE/EXPAND FROM ANY OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH CELL
MOTION PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DRIVEN. WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERATION OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS.

LONG TERM...
A PREDOMINANTLY STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE REGION STANDS TO
TREND INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR THIS TRANSITION IS A
VIGOROUS CYCLONE ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC THAT SHOULD DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MON/TUE ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR OUR REGION.
UNTIL THEN...AN NE-SW AXIS OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE STILL OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO NEW MEXICO IN THE
DAYS AHEAD IN RESPONSE TO AN EMERGING /ALBEIT WEAK/ UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. ASIDE FROM THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS REACHING NORTH TO THE PANHANDLES...DETAILS
FOR FORCING ARE WEAK. NONETHELESS...THIS SETUP LOOKS DECENT FOR
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTORMS LATE WED AND AGAIN ON THU BEFORE
700-500MB WINDS TREND EASTERLY AND MARKEDLY DRIER. LEFT POPS
LARGELY INTACT LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH ALL MENTION CEASING
THEREAFTER. PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY COULD CERTAINLY BECOME
ENHANCED AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY EMERGING MCV STRUCTURES
WHICH ARE OFTEN FAVORED IN THESE WEAK SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES...
BUT PRECIP OVERALL LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND CONFINED TO A FEW
FORTUNATE HAMLETS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ENERGY
LINGERING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH. THIS
HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR FOR AREAS WELL TO OUR EAST
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD IMPACT THE FINAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING TO OUR NORTH LATE MON/EARLY TUE. A DRYLINE MAY VERY WELL
UNFOLD OVER THE CWA AS THIS TROUGH SPREADS DEEPER W-SW FLOW INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE NEXT LEGITIMATE PRECIP CHANCES MAY
INDEED HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES COMPLETE WITH A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  79  58  78  57 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         61  80  59  80  58 /  20  40  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  59  79  57 /  20  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     62  78  60  78  58 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       63  79  60  79  58 /  20  30  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   63  79  61  77  58 /  20  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    63  79  61  79  58 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     65  83  62  84  61 /  20  30  30  20  10
SPUR          63  80  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     64  83  62  83  61 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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