382
FXUS64 KLUB 141740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013
.AVIATION...
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS UNDERWAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KLBB AND
SOUTH OF KCDS. SURFACE DRY-LINE SHOULD SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLY TO MID EVENING WHILE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET TO 40-45 KNOTS
AT THE H850 LEVEL DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. AT THIS POINT WE ANTICIPATE
THAT SURFACE WINDS ALSO WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY
WITH NOT ENOUGH INDICATION OF DE-COUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TO REQUIRE A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TS WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF KCDS AND E/SE
OF KLBB. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF BOTH TAFS ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WILL FINALLY SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 00Z MODEL RUN NOT
PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS ON ITS
APPROACH AND AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS LACKING WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE FCST AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS APPROACHING 50F ACROSS
THE SERN ZONES BY 00Z RESULTING IN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AVAILABLE SHOULD ANY STORMS INITIATE. HOWEVER...WEAK 0-6 KFT BULK
SHEAR SUGGESTS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND A VERY LOW END CHANCE FOR
SEVERE. AS FOR POPS...SLIGHT CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
COINCIDES WITH BEST...ALTHOUGH MODEST...MOISTURE SHOULD SUFFICE.
SEASONALLY WARM DAY IN STORE NOT TOO FAR OFF YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND
NEAR MOS GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL PHASE WITH A UA TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION...THUS USHERING IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INITIALLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY NIGHTFALL WHERE IT WILL THEN WASH OUT. AS
SUCH...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE INITIALLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW AFTN COINCIDING WITH BEST
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S
/COURTESY OF A 35-40 KT LLJ PROGGED FOR TONIGHT/...WITH PRECIP
PERHAPS EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE RETREATS TO NEAR THE BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTN...COINCIDING WITH BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND
MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
THEREAFTER /16/00Z-06Z/.
THURSDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE DRYLINE THURSDAY AFTN...BUT THE SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION. THE NAM
EXHIBITS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER /ACCOMPANIED
BY PRECIP/ WHEREAS THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF DISPLACE IT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS /PRECIP SHOWN VIA ECMWF AND CMC BUT NIL PRECIP PER
THE GFS/. WITH THE NAM APPEARING TO BE THE OUTLIER...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS ATTM...AND WILL BUMP POPS TO 14 PERCENT
ALBEIT BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.
A SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE FOR THE CWA FRIDAY-THE
WEEKEND...AS A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DIGS ESE ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS SATURDAY...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY THUS VEERING FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH A 35-40 KT LLJ COMMENCING FRIDAY
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO
THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY MORNING...AND HENCE THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS THE THE UA DISTURBANCE
NEARS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...RATHER BREEZY SWRLY
SFC WINDS /25-30 MPH PER MEX GUIDANCE/ WILL FILTER ACROSS LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK THUS SHIFTING THE DRYLINE TO ERN LOCALES AND PROMOTING A
SHARPENING DRYLINE /IN ADDITION TO INCREASING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS/. IT IS NO WONDER PRECIP IS SHOWN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT APPEARS TO LAST VERY LONG GIVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HENCE BREEZY WRLY WINDS FURTHER
PUSHING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN. THE SYSTEM/S
ACCOMPANIED FRONT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS FROM PREVIOUS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS...PRECIP
IS NIL ATTM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 14 PERCENT ACROSS ERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL AWAIT LATER SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF THIS QPF
SIGNAL PERSIST.
ABOVE NORM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
WARMEST TEMPS ANTICIPATED LATE WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND WITH THE UA
RIDGE PASSAGE /MID TO UPPER 90S/...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK /MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 89 55 90 57 / 0 10 10 0 0
TULIA 58 91 58 90 59 / 10 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 92 60 91 61 / 10 20 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 60 92 60 94 61 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 93 62 92 63 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 61 93 62 95 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 93 62 95 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 93 64 89 63 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 61 93 61 90 62 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 92 64 90 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
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