Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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724
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE INSERTING A MENTION OF
FOG AND INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE
HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST BRINGING IN MOIST AIR
ON THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
MOIST AIR THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHERMORE...T/TD SPREADS OFF THE
CAPROCK WERE ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 DEGREES. IT IS STILL
NEBULOUS ON WHETHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE FOG OR NOT. THE
DRYLINE RECENTLY ENCOUNTERED A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
GREATLY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. AT SOME POINT...THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY RAISED ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHERE THIS
MOISTURE HAS INVADED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING FOG INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB OR KPVW. A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS
CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
IF MOISTURE DOES HANG ON...THEN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBB AND KPVW. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         48  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          54  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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