638
FXUS64 KLUB 120451
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS
NEAR KCDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
FOR MAY IN WEST TEXAS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ADDITIONAL VIRGA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LIFT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
THERE WILL STILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE LIFT TO WORK WITH. THE
STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION BUT MOST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A TRACE
OF RAINFALL.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT FOG ON THE CAPROCK FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE FROM FRIDAYS RAIN BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY. EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE OF VIRGA
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE...Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
INHIBITING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. JDV
LONG TERM...
GFS/ECMWF STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY BEFORE PHASING INTO THE MAIN FLOW BY LATE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW TO
MANDATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WHATEVER LIFT THAT
OCCURS AHEAD OF AND CONCURRENT WITH UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HOLD ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL THUS HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS THERE AS
WELL. THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUT THEN IT APPEARS A RETURN TO A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN
THE DETAILS...BUT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME
PERIODIC ENERGY MOVING OUT OF WRN US TROUGH...CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW OPPORTUNITES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THAT
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THAT TIME
PERIOD WILL PLAY OUT.
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD START TO
SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATING AS WELL AND HOLD IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 72 45 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10 0
TULIA 74 45 80 53 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 74 48 79 54 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 75 49 79 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 75 50 81 55 86 / 10 10 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 74 51 78 53 83 / 10 10 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 76 51 80 55 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 78 50 83 57 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
SPUR 78 51 81 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 80 51 82 57 88 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
