Area Forecast Discussion
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489
FXUS64 KLUB 262012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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