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304
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
941
FXUS64 KLUB 220921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
942
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
490
FXUS64 KLUB 212345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT KLBB WILL SEE ANY MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST ATTM. HENCE...WE
HAVE KEPT KLBB CONVECTION FREE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER
TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE IMPACTED IS UNCLEAR. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
434
FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
762
FXUS64 KLUB 211717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CWA REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY THINNING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME. MID-LVL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST THAN
YESTERDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WRN
SPLNS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER ODDS AT KLBB. AMENDMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
INTERFERE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD. AFTER THE STANDARD PRE-DAWN LULL...BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         67  92  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  90  63  87  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     74  98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
SPUR          68  95  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  98  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
266
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
807
FXUS64 KLUB 210901
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  66  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
155
FXUS64 KLUB 210440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED /WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS/ BUT HAVE RECENTLY RELENTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW LINGERING BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
RELATIVELY MOIST WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY
COULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AT KLBB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BRING THE RISK OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF A
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY
TO PUSH SCATTERED MENTION EWD TO THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
021
FXUS64 KLUB 210002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY
TO PUSH SCATTERED MENTION EWD TO THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SKIRTING BY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB...THOUGH IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A VCTS REMARK
HAS BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT ALL THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. INSTEAD A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIM CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINALS...THOUGH ODDS OF A DIRECT IMPACT
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. MODEST SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY INTERRUPT THIS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
339
FXUS64 KLUB 202340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SKIRTING BY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB...THOUGH IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A VCTS REMARK
HAS BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT ALL THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. INSTEAD A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER SLIM CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINALS...THOUGH ODDS OF A DIRECT IMPACT
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. MODEST SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY INTERRUPT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
476
FXUS64 KLUB 202025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
869
FXUS64 KLUB 201735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HRS. THERE
IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE VICNITY OF KLBB AND/OR KCDS
BETWEEN ABOUT 22 UTC AND 02 UTC BUT BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST. BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY AN T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
WE EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF KLBB TODAY WITH THUNDER CHANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AS WELL. MODEST SURFACE TROUGH WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT BUT STILL
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WAVE SKIMS BY TO
THE NORTH...ALL AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RELOCATING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
LOOK ON PACE TO IMPROVE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR WESTERN BORDER AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE A
BIT INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING
AND SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER RISK STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE
BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND EAST. A SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST. ONCE AGAIN...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A LEE TROF WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SET US UP FOR A SHOT AT
PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVELS AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NM. I HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FARTHER EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK WESTWARD AND KEPT CHANCES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AS THE SURFACE TROF STAYS PUT UNTIL THE MAIN
CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH THE TROF TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE THROWING ENERGY OUR WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING SOME HOPE FOR CONVECTION/PRECIP. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT JUST BELOW MENTION UNTIL THE WRINKLES CAN BE IRONED
OUT OF THE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL...POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE...FOR THE FA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
OUT WEST TO THE LOW 70S OUT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  64  91  61 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  91  66  92  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  91  65  92  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  94  68  94  68 /  10  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  65  93  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  97  72  98  71 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  94  66  95  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  97  71  98  69 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
134
FXUS64 KLUB 201139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF KLBB TODAY WITH THUNDER CHANCES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AS WELL. MODEST SURFACE TROUGH WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT BUT STILL
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WAVE SKIMS BY TO
THE NORTH...ALL AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RELOCATING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
LOOK ON PACE TO IMPROVE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR WESTERN BORDER AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE A
BIT INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING
AND SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER RISK STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE
BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND EAST. A SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST. ONCE AGAIN...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A LEE TROF WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SET US UP FOR A SHOT AT
PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVELS AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NM. I HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FARTHER EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK WESTWARD AND KEPT CHANCES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AS THE SURFACE TROF STAYS PUT UNTIL THE MAIN
CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH THE TROF TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE THROWING ENERGY OUR WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING SOME HOPE FOR CONVECTION/PRECIP. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT JUST BELOW MENTION UNTIL THE WRINKLES CAN BE IRONED
OUT OF THE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL...POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE...FOR THE FA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
OUT WEST TO THE LOW 70S OUT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  62  92  64  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
TULIA         92  64  91  66  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     92  65  91  65  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     92  64  91  64  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       92  68  94  68  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   92  66  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    93  66  93  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     96  71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          93  68  94  66  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     94  71  97  71  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
723
FXUS64 KLUB 200837
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE EASTERN EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT BUT STILL
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES AS A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS WAVE SKIMS BY TO
THE NORTH...ALL AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RELOCATING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
LOOK ON PACE TO IMPROVE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR WESTERN BORDER AND
CELL MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW. ALSO...WE SHOULD SEE A
BIT INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE TROUGHING
AND SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC THUNDERSTORMS. BUT OVERALL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER RISK STILL APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. THE
BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT WHICH WILL HOLD UP TEMPERATURES
CENTRAL AND EAST. A SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST. ONCE AGAIN...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A LEE TROF WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP SET US UP FOR A SHOT AT
PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVELS AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NM. I HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FARTHER EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK WESTWARD AND KEPT CHANCES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA AS THE SURFACE TROF STAYS PUT UNTIL THE MAIN
CHUNK OF ENERGY WITH THE TROF TO OUR WEST MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE THROWING ENERGY OUR WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING SOME HOPE FOR CONVECTION/PRECIP. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT JUST BELOW MENTION UNTIL THE WRINKLES CAN BE IRONED
OUT OF THE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. BY MID WEEK A RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK TO OUR WEST PUTTING US IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL...POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE...FOR THE FA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S
OUT WEST TO THE LOW 70S OUT EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  62  92  64  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
TULIA         92  64  91  66  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     92  65  91  65  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     92  64  91  64  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       92  68  94  68  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   92  66  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    93  66  93  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     96  71  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          93  68  94  66  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     94  71  97  71  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
165
FXUS64 KLUB 200419
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1119 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIM
POSSIBLITY OF MVFR STRATUS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTN VCNTY OF THE TEXAS-NM STATE LINE WEST OF KLBB THEN TO MOVE TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH KLBB BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFOREHAND. WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT ATTM. SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING REACHING 15 KTS OR MORE DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION DID NOT QUITE GET GOING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE ONLY RESULT.
THEREFORE...HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...PUT WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY. STRATUS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SINCE NOT A
STRONG SIGNAL APPEARING IN THE MODELS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLA DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRETTY
WEAK...BUT TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE APPARENT...ONE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ONE RUNNING FROM THE NW PERMIAN BASIN
INTO ERN NM. WE EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW WITH ANY CELLS
QUICKLY BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER OUTFLOW
OR TWO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOW STRATUS COULD
FORM EARLY WED MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX WILL BEND NEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW TX INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...CUTTING ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NM WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE LIFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LVL
WIND FIELD OVER OUR WRN ZONES. SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE TX-NM BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO MID 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
SEMI-DIRTY UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX IS SHOWN TO RELOCATE
WELL TO OUR EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
AT TIMES CYCLONIC AS A FEW DECAYING WAVES GRAZE THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINS THE LAGGARD COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS WHICH IS SOME 36 HOURS FASTER. WPC IS FAVORING A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED BY
THE GEFS MEAN...SO FRIDAY MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THIS WAVE GLANCES THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS HOWEVER WERE LEFT LARGELY
IN CHECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS IS A BIT MURKY.

AT THE VERY LEAST THE MEAN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS
WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. SUBTLE
EASTWARD SHIFTS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING/NARROWING AS IT
FIGHTS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTING TO
RECLAIM WEST TX. POPS THEREFORE REMAIN SILENT AFTER FRI NIGHT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SEND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
INTO OUR TERRITORY...BUT THIS IS TOO DISTANT TO CONSIDER
ENTERTAINING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP. MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK TO REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE CLIMO GIVEN NO
NOTABLE CHANGE TO DAILY THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
TULIA         64  92  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  64  91  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  66  92  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  97  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  93  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  94  71  96  71 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
576
FXUS64 KLUB 200214 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION DID NOT QUITE GET GOING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE ONLY RESULT.
THEREFORE...HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...PUT WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY. STRATUS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SINCE NOT A
STRONG SIGNAL APPEARING IN THE MODELS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLA DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRETTY
WEAK...BUT TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE APPARENT...ONE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ONE RUNNING FROM THE NW PERMIAN BASIN
INTO ERN NM. WE EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW WITH ANY CELLS
QUICKLY BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER OUTFLOW
OR TWO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOW STRATUS COULD
FORM EARLY WED MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX WILL BEND NEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW TX INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...CUTTING ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NM WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE LIFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LVL
WIND FIELD OVER OUR WRN ZONES. SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE TX-NM BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO MID 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
SEMI-DIRTY UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX IS SHOWN TO RELOCATE
WELL TO OUR EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
AT TIMES CYCLONIC AS A FEW DECAYING WAVES GRAZE THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINS THE LAGGARD COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS WHICH IS SOME 36 HOURS FASTER. WPC IS FAVORING A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED BY
THE GEFS MEAN...SO FRIDAY MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THIS WAVE GLANCES THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS HOWEVER WERE LEFT LARGELY
IN CHECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS IS A BIT MURKY.

AT THE VERY LEAST THE MEAN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS
WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. SUBTLE
EASTWARD SHIFTS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING/NARROWING AS IT
FIGHTS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTING TO
RECLAIM WEST TX. POPS THEREFORE REMAIN SILENT AFTER FRI NIGHT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SEND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
INTO OUR TERRITORY...BUT THIS IS TOO DISTANT TO CONSIDER
ENTERTAINING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP. MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK TO REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE CLIMO GIVEN NO
NOTABLE CHANGE TO DAILY THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
TULIA         64  92  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  64  91  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  66  92  65 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  97  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  93  68  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  94  71  96  71 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/07
389
FXUS64 KLUB 192326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...PUT WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT
BAY. STRATUS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT SINCE NOT A
STRONG SIGNAL APPEARING IN THE MODELS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLA DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRETTY
WEAK...BUT TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE APPARENT...ONE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ONE RUNNING FROM THE NW PERMIAN BASIN
INTO ERN NM. WE EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW WITH ANY CELLS
QUICKLY BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER OUTFLOW
OR TWO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOW STRATUS COULD
FORM EARLY WED MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX WILL BEND NEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW TX INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...CUTTING ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NM WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE LIFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LVL
WIND FIELD OVER OUR WRN ZONES. SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE TX-NM BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO MID 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
SEMI-DIRTY UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX IS SHOWN TO RELOCATE
WELL TO OUR EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
AT TIMES CYCLONIC AS A FEW DECAYING WAVES GRAZE THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINS THE LAGGARD COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS WHICH IS SOME 36 HOURS FASTER. WPC IS FAVORING A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED BY
THE GEFS MEAN...SO FRIDAY MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THIS WAVE GLANCES THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS HOWEVER WERE LEFT LARGELY
IN CHECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS IS A BIT MURKY.

AT THE VERY LEAST THE MEAN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS
WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. SUBTLE
EASTWARD SHIFTS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING/NARROWING AS IT
FIGHTS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTING TO
RECLAIM WEST TX. POPS THEREFORE REMAIN SILENT AFTER FRI NIGHT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SEND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
INTO OUR TERRITORY...BUT THIS IS TOO DISTANT TO CONSIDER
ENTERTAINING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP. MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK TO REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE CLIMO GIVEN NO
NOTABLE CHANGE TO DAILY THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
TULIA         64  92  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  64  91  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  66  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  97  71 /  20   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  93  68  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  94  71  96  71 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
579
FXUS64 KLUB 192019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLA DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
PWATS ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE PRETTY
WEAK...BUT TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ARE APPARENT...ONE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ONE RUNNING FROM THE NW PERMIAN BASIN
INTO ERN NM. WE EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STORMS MOTION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW WITH ANY CELLS
QUICKLY BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT. WE COULD SEE A STRONGER OUTFLOW
OR TWO PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG AT
BAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOW STRATUS COULD
FORM EARLY WED MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
CURRENTLY OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX WILL BEND NEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW TX INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...CUTTING ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NM WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE LIFT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LVL
WIND FIELD OVER OUR WRN ZONES. SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE TX-NM BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WX IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME WED...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO MID 90S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SEMI-DIRTY UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX IS SHOWN TO RELOCATE
WELL TO OUR EAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHILE REMAINING LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER FLOW LOCALLY WILL BE LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
AT TIMES CYCLONIC AS A FEW DECAYING WAVES GRAZE THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINS THE LAGGARD COMPARED TO THE GEFS MEAN AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS WHICH IS SOME 36 HOURS FASTER. WPC IS FAVORING A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR NOW WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH SEEMS BEST SUPPORTED BY
THE GEFS MEAN...SO FRIDAY MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS THIS WAVE GLANCES THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS HOWEVER WERE LEFT LARGELY
IN CHECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WINDOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS IS A BIT MURKY.

AT THE VERY LEAST THE MEAN AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS
WILL RESIDE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
COINCIDENT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. SUBTLE
EASTWARD SHIFTS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING/NARROWING AS IT
FIGHTS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH ATTEMPTING TO
RECLAIM WEST TX. POPS THEREFORE REMAIN SILENT AFTER FRI NIGHT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MAY SEND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
INTO OUR TERRITORY...BUT THIS IS TOO DISTANT TO CONSIDER
ENTERTAINING FURTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP. MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK TO REMAIN A TOUCH ABOVE CLIMO GIVEN NO
NOTABLE CHANGE TO DAILY THICKNESS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  62  91  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
TULIA         64  92  64  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  64  91  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       67  92  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  92  66  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  97  71 /  20   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  93  68  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  94  71  96  71 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
735
FXUS64 KLUB 191738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS A LOW...ABOUT 20 PERCENT...CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A GUSTY T-STORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY LOW CEILINGS EARLY
WED MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT RAPID FORMATION OF 1KFT FOG DECK WHICH SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO MIX OUT.

AVIATION...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB. STRATUS/FOG FORMED
RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MOIST AIR STREAMED INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST FOG MAY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z
THOUGH GIVEN DEPTH AND INTENSITY...MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO
LONGER.  UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL US RIDGE ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE TSTMS MAINLY S OF KCDS AND E OF KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/EXTENT EXISTS AND WILL PUT LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 15 PCT AT KLBB AND 20 PCT AT KCDS MAINLY BETWEEN
21Z AND 02Z. CONFIDENCE NUMBERS PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF TSTM
IN TAF ATTM THOUGH TRENDS MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE LATER TODAY.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INVOF STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS.
THE BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE
TX THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW
WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE
IMPORTANTLY THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE
WEAK IN AN AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP
AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB
MAY SERVE TO SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR
PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW
REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A
WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS
FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED FOR STORMS WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
WHILE WE MAY NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...POSSIBLY JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  90  63  90  64 /  10  10  20  20  30
TULIA         66  92  65  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  91  66  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  65  91  65 /  10  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  92  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  91  66  91  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  66  91  65 /  10  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  97  71  98  71 /  20   0   0  10  10
SPUR          66  94  68  95  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  71  95  70 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
826
FXUS64 KLUB 191137 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT RAPID FORMATION OF 1KFT FOG DECK WHICH SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO MIX OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB. STRATUS/FOG FORMED
RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MOIST AIR STREAMED INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST FOG MAY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z
THOUGH GIVEN DEPTH AND INTENSITY...MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO
LONGER.  UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL US RIDGE ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE TSTMS MAINLY S OF KCDS AND E OF KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/EXTENT EXISTS AND WILL PUT LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 15 PCT AT KLBB AND 20 PCT AT KCDS MAINLY BETWEEN
21Z AND 02Z. CONFIDENCE NUMBERS PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF TSTM
IN TAF ATTM THOUGH TRENDS MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE LATER TODAY.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INVOF STORMS.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS.
THE BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE
TX THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW
WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE
IMPORTANTLY THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE
WEAK IN AN AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP
AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB
MAY SERVE TO SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR
PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW
REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A
WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS
FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED FOR STORMS WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
WHILE WE MAY NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...POSSIBLY JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/26/26
387
FXUS64 KLUB 191110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT RAPID FORMATION OF 3KFT FOG DECK WHICH SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO MIX OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB. STRATUS/FOG FORMED
RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING AS MOIST AIR STREAMED INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST FOG MAY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z
THOUGH GIVEN DEPTH AND INTENSITY...MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO
LONGER.  UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL US RIDGE ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE TSTMS MAINLY S OF KCDS AND E OF KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/EXTENT EXISTS AND WILL PUT LIKELIHOOD OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 15 PCT AT KLBB AND 20 PCT AT KCDS MAINLY BETWEEN
21Z AND 02Z. CONFIDENCE NUMBERS PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION OF TSTM
IN TAF ATTM THOUGH TRENDS MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE LATER TODAY.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INVOF STORMS.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS. THE
BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX
THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW WILL
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE IMPORTANTLY
THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE WEAK IN AN
AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP AID
IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT
DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL
EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO
SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED FOR STORMS WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH.
WHILE WE MAY NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...POSSIBLY JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/26/26
076
FXUS64 KLUB 190940
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK HAS RAPIDLY FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS AT KLBB TO GO IFR SHORTLY AOA
500 FT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO MIX OUT
THE MOISTURE. VISIBILITY MAY DROP SHARPLY BUT THUS FAR INDICATIONS
POINT TO MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT THOUGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
JUST A FEW DEGREES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS. THE
BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX
THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW WILL
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE IMPORTANTLY
THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE WEAK IN AN
AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP AID
IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT
DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL
EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO
SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. WHILE WE MAY
NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...POSSIBLY
JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
979
FXUS64 KLUB 190851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH RIDGING ALONG 100W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAKNESS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EVIDENT
FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOTHER LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SWRN 2/3RDS OF TEXAS. THE
BEST...ALBEIT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIV-Q FIELDS WILL REMAIN OVER SE TX
THOUGH A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SOCAL LOW WILL
PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST.  MORE IMPORTANTLY
THOUGH MAY BE THE FACT THAT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE WEAK IN AN
AIRMASS SUCH AS WE HAVE THIS MORNING.  GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
MONSOON-DERIVED MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING MOST NOTABLY AT H7.  THIS WILL HELP AID
IN DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ESTABLISH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH SUBSIDENT INVERSION AROUND 550MB MAY SERVE TO
SUPPRESS UPDRAFTS INITIALLY.  WITH ANEMIC SHEAR PROFILES...FAIRLY SHORT
DURATION PULSE STORMS WITH OUTFLOW REGENERATION PROCESSES APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  INSOFAR AS SPATIAL
EXTENT...THIS IS A BIT TRICKY.  A WEAK AND BROAD MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP PULL DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AROUND TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  THETA E FIELDS FROM THE SFC TO H7 DO
SHOW A MINOR MAXIMUM FROM S TO N ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES.  HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE A JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WED WILL START OFF WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOCAL BEGINS ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS TROF OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. FOR
NOW THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LINE UP
WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND WED NIGHT ON HOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL
WILL EVOLVE. THE GFS OPENS THE LOW AND KICKS IT EASTWARD FAIRLY
QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH HOLD THE LOW BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL FRI MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROF WILL STILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES ON THUR WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THUR EVENING. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS ENERGY FROM THE LOW WILL STILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE FA. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND...WE WILL BE IN A
PATTERN OF HAVING A TROF TO OUR WEST AND RIDGE TO OUR EAST. USUALLY
THIS WOULD BE A FAIRLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL BULGE JUST A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN WOULD BE
WANTED WHILE THE TROF STAYS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. WHILE WE MAY
NOT BENEFIT FULLY FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AREAS TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINS INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES...POSSIBLY
JUST A BIT ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         90  66  92  65  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  65  91  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  65  91 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       91  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  66  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    91  65  92  66  91 /  10  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     94  71  97  71  98 /  20  20   0   0  10
SPUR          92  66  94  68  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     96  70  95  71  95 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/26
124
FXUS64 KLUB 190017 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
717 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING WWD FROM AN UPPER LOW
SITTING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT SINCE THESE ARE LIKELY SO
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH PAST 00Z
IF AT ALL. ATTM WILL WITH POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
THE POST-00Z TIME FRAME AS EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN AREA OF HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TUESDAY. MODELS PROG THE LOW NEAR SAN ANGELO TO
GET PICKED UP TUESDAY BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN IN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
DIVING SWD ALONG THE CALIF COAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORK NWD DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE DEARTH OF QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA
AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC. OF NOTE IS THAT THE
LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING AS IT STARTS ITS MOVE TO THE NORTH WITH
DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN SEEN
TODAY...SO THAT LIKELY HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE LIMITED PRECIP IN THE
MODELS. THAT SAID...RECENT DAYS HAVE SEEN REALITY BEING A LITTLE
WETTER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY AFTN ALTHOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
STILL...SITUATION SUPPORTS INSERTING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
TUESDAY AFTN. WILL PLACE THAT MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE MODELS CURRENTLY PROG THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
COOL POOL ALOFT. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AS WELL GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION DURING THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
TIME FRAME.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST...AND A STOUT UPPER HIGH ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS ALMOST DIRECTLY BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITHIN A REGIME OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.  AS
THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY SPLIT ON
THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...AS THE ECMWF IS APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS
SLOWER IN EJECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER HIGH.  WHENEVER THIS OCCURS...LIKELY
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL
STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
STEERING FLOW IT REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION.  WHILE TIMING REMAINS A
CONCERN...THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THE FASTER TROUGH EJECTION...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IT
REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE TREND THOUGH...HAVE
OPTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS WELL.  ANOTHER POINT WORTH NOTING DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS A MARKED INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER WAVE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE`VE SEEN IN THE RECENT
PAST...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

BEYOND LATE FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD.  THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW EXPLICIT
MENTION UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LITTLE
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...AND
LOWS BETWEEN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  90  62  90  62 /   0  10  10  10  20
TULIA         64  91  67  91  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  90  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  90  65  91  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       67  90  69  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  66  92  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  90  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     71  95  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          69  91  68  95  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  93  72  98  71 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
762
FXUS64 KLUB 181932
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING WWD FROM AN UPPER LOW
SITTING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES
THIS AFTN BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT SINCE THESE ARE LIKELY SO
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH PAST 00Z
IF AT ALL. ATTM WILL WITH POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
THE POST-00Z TIME FRAME AS EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN AREA OF HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TUESDAY. MODELS PROG THE LOW NEAR SAN ANGELO TO
GET PICKED UP TUESDAY BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN IN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
DIVING SWD ALONG THE CALIF COAST. AS A RESULT WILL SEE INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORK NWD DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE DEARTH OF QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA
AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC. OF NOTE IS THAT THE
LOW WILL BEGIN FILLING AS IT STARTS ITS MOVE TO THE NORTH WITH
DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAN SEEN
TODAY...SO THAT LIKELY HAS MUCH TO DO WITH THE LIMITED PRECIP IN THE
MODELS. THAT SAID...RECENT DAYS HAVE SEEN REALITY BEING A LITTLE
WETTER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY AFTN ALTHOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
STILL...SITUATION SUPPORTS INSERTING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
TUESDAY AFTN. WILL PLACE THAT MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE MODELS CURRENTLY PROG THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
COOL POOL ALOFT. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AS WELL GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION DURING THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND
TIME FRAME.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST...AND A STOUT UPPER HIGH ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THIS WILL PLACE WEST TEXAS ALMOST DIRECTLY BETWEEN THE
TWO...WITHIN A REGIME OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.  AS
THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT THIS POINT...GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY SPLIT ON
THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...AS THE ECMWF IS APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS
SLOWER IN EJECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER HIGH.  WHENEVER THIS OCCURS...LIKELY
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL
STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
STEERING FLOW IT REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION.  WHILE TIMING REMAINS A
CONCERN...THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THE FASTER TROUGH EJECTION...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IT
REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE TREND THOUGH...HAVE
OPTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS WELL.  ANOTHER POINT WORTH NOTING DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS A MARKED INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER WAVE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE`VE SEEN IN THE RECENT
PAST...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

BEYOND LATE FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD.  THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW EXPLICIT
MENTION UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LITTLE
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...AND
LOWS BETWEEN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  63  90  61 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         65  93  66  91  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  93  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  93  68  93  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  92  65  93  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  94  65  93  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  72  97  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  96  66  96  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  98  71  97  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16
650
FXUS64 KLUB 181722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO INSERT MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES WHERE A FEW SMALL SCALE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED. THIS AREA IS ON THE NWRN PERIFERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO SEEING SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY THERE AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S WHILE
DEW POINT TEMPS HOLD IN THE MID 60S. CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THAT AREA SUGGESTS SHOWER POTENTIAL TO
LAST THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE ENDING 18Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WV SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS HIGHS BEING LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MORE OR LESS
BISECTING THE COUNTRY N/S BY LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS INTO SRN CALIFORNIA NORTH OF A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
AROUND 20N121W. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE
EJECTION STRATEGY OF THE SOCAL LOW WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN INDICATED BY THE ECM. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THAT
MEANS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL TAKE ON A SLOSHING
NATURE AND BRING A RISK OF STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

WITH THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE RISK OF STORMS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISO-SCT CB DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/IMPINGE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG
THETA-E RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EITHER OF THE TWO EJECTION
STRATEGIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THINGS DRY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  65  92  65  92 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  65  93  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  68  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   92  65  92  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  66  94  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  71  98  72  97 /  10   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  96  66  96 /  10   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  71  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
816
FXUS64 KLUB 181657
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE ENDING 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WV SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS HIGHS BEING LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MORE OR LESS
BISECTING THE COUNTRY N/S BY LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS INTO SRN CALIFORNIA NORTH OF A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
AROUND 20N121W. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE
EJECTION STRATEGY OF THE SOCAL LOW WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN INDICATED BY THE ECM. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THAT
MEANS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL TAKE ON A SLOSHING
NATURE AND BRING A RISK OF STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

WITH THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE RISK OF STORMS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISO-SCT CB DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/IMPINGE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG
THETA-E RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EITHER OF THE TWO EJECTION
STRATEGIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THINGS DRY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  91  63  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  65  92  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   92  65  92  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  66  94  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  71  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  71  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
677
FXUS64 KLUB 181051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WV SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS HIGHS BEING LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MORE OR LESS
BISECTING THE COUNTRY N/S BY LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS INTO SRN CALIFORNIA NORTH OF A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
AROUND 20N121W. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE
EJECTION STRATEGY OF THE SOCAL LOW WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN INDICATED BY THE ECM. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THAT
MEANS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL TAKE ON A SLOSHING
NATURE AND BRING A RISK OF STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

WITH THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE RISK OF STORMS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISO-SCT CB DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/IMPINGE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG
THETA-E RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EITHER OF THE TWO EJECTION
STRATEGIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THINGS DRY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  91  63  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  65  92  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   92  65  92  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  66  94  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  71  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  71  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51
298
FXUS64 KLUB 180830
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. WV SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS HIGHS BEING LOWERED BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MORE OR LESS
BISECTING THE COUNTRY N/S BY LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS INTO SRN CALIFORNIA NORTH OF A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
AROUND 20N121W. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE
EJECTION STRATEGY OF THE SOCAL LOW WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN INDICATED BY THE ECM. EITHER WAY...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THAT
MEANS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL TAKE ON A SLOSHING
NATURE AND BRING A RISK OF STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.

WITH THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE RISK OF STORMS ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT ISO-SCT CB DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY APPROACH/IMPINGE
ON THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WED AFTN AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG
THETA-E RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT EITHER OF THE TWO EJECTION
STRATEGIES WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THINGS DRY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  91  63  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TULIA         92  65  93  66  91 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  65  92  65  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  68  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   92  65  92  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  66  94  65  93 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  71  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  96  66  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  71  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26
864
FXUS64 KLUB 180510
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCDS AND KLBB TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KLBB CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
ABOVE 25 KTS AT KLBB VERY EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS AREA WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS TERMINALS FOR DURATION OF FORECAST. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. EVEN SO...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH PWATS STILL HANGING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 1 INCH. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WAS
RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS OF
THE 19Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YET TRIGGER A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA...THOUGH THE DRYING UPPER LEVELS AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND DURATION. IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS OCCURRING ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...AND BETTER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF/WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP THE WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A SLOW SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE UPPER RIDGING CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL EDGE THIS WAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER SQUASH
STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH A DRY DAY THE MOST LIKELY RESULT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT WILL FOLLOW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NOTED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS AFTN
SAGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FCST AREA WILL END UP IN THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS LOW OVER CALIF AND THE BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTL AND NRN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSBILY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
COMING THURSDAY. WILL INSERT MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLITY OF EXPANSION TO TUESDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THIS
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER
TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK AND COOLEST NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
NOT TOO FAR OF MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  63  92  63 /  10  10   0   0  10
TULIA         66  95  65  92  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  95  66  93  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  98  68  95  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  98  72  98  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/01/01
919
FXUS64 KLUB 180028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KLBB CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
ABOVE 25 KTS AT KLBB VERY EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS AREA WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS TERMINALS FOR DURATION OF FORECAST. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. EVEN SO...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH PWATS STILL HANGING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 1 INCH. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WAS
RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS OF
THE 19Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YET TRIGGER A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA...THOUGH THE DRYING UPPER LEVELS AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND DURATION. IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS OCCURRING ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...AND BETTER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF/WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP THE WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A SLOW SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE UPPER RIDGING CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL EDGE THIS WAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER SQUASH
STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH A DRY DAY THE MOST LIKELY RESULT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT WILL FOLLOW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NOTED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS AFTN
SAGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FCST AREA WILL END UP IN THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS LOW OVER CALIF AND THE BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTL AND NRN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSBILY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
COMING THURSDAY. WILL INSERT MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLITY OF EXPANSION TO TUESDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THIS
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER
TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK AND COOLEST NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
NOT TOO FAR OF MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  63  92  63 /  10  10   0   0  10
TULIA         66  95  65  92  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  95  66  93  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  98  68  95  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  98  72  98  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/01/02
680
FXUS64 KLUB 171942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. EVEN SO...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH PWATS STILL HANGING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 1 INCH. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WAS
RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS OF
THE 19Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YET TRIGGER A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA...THOUGH THE DRYING UPPER LEVELS AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND DURATION. IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS OCCURRING ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...AND BETTER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF/WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP THE WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A SLOW SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE UPPER RIDGING CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL EDGE THIS WAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER SQUASH
STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH A DRY DAY THE MOST LIKELY RESULT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT WILL FOLLOW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NOTED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS AFTN
SAGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FCST AREA WILL END UP IN THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS LOW OVER CALIF AND THE BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTL AND NRN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSBILY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
COMING THURSDAY. WILL INSERT MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLITY OF EXPANSION TO TUESDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THIS
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER
TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK AND COOLEST NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
NOT TOO FAR OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  63  92  63 /  10  10   0   0  10
TULIA         66  95  65  92  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  95  66  93  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  98  68  95  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  98  72  98  71 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
178
FXUS64 KLUB 171733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THEY SHIFT AROUND THE DIAL
FROM NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A REMOTE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
IS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE PER WV...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THE ONLY RESULT FROM THE WAVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED.
DESPITE HAVING CAPE TO WORK WITH...THE WEATHER LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE QUIET COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC WITH NVA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS EXISTS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM BUT WILL BE NOT OUT OF CONTROL AS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/EAST NORTHEAST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENLY BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THOUGH SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONVERGING ON A PATTERN OF VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY THE ECM SOLUTION THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPIATION ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING INVOF SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON.  OUR
WESTERN ROW OR TWO LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  HAVE
ACCORDINGLY TRENDED POPS A FEW POINTS IN ANTICIPATION OF A CLEARER
SYNOPTIC PICTURE.  WHILE WE WILL START OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY...A GENERAL COOLING TOWARD MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  94  63  91  62 /  10   0  10   0  10
TULIA         66  95  66  94  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  66  93  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  65  94  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  94  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  94  66  92  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  67  94  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0  10   0  10
SPUR          67  99  68  97  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     70 100  72  99  72 /  20   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
068
FXUS64 KLUB 171111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
IS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE PER WV...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THE ONLY RESULT FROM THE WAVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED.
DESPITE HAVING CAPE TO WORK WITH...THE WEATHER LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE QUIET COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC WITH NVA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS EXISTS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM BUT WILL BE NOT OUT OF CONTROL AS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/EAST NORTHEAST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENLY BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THOUGH SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONVERGING ON A PATTERN OF VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY THE ECM SOLUTION THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPIATION ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING INVOF SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON.  OUR
WESTERN ROW OR TWO LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  HAVE
ACCORDINGLY TRENDED POPS A FEW POINTS IN ANTICIPATION OF A CLEARER
SYNOPTIC PICTURE.  WHILE WE WILL START OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY...A GENERAL COOLING TOWARD MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  63  91 /  10  10   0  10   0
TULIA         93  66  95  66  94 /  10  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     93  66  95  66  93 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  66  95  65  94 /  10  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  96  69  94 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   95  65  94  66  92 /  20  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    95  66  96  67  94 /  20  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS    100  72 101  72  99 /  10  10   0  10   0
SPUR          97  67  99  68  97 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  70 100  72  99 /  20  20   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51
876
FXUS64 KLUB 170917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
IS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE PER WV...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THE ONLY RESULT FROM THE WAVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED.
DESPITE HAVING CAPE TO WORK WITH...THE WEATHER LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE QUIET COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC WITH NVA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS EXISTS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM BUT WILL BE NOT OUT OF CONTROL AS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/EAST NORTHEAST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENLY BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THOUGH SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONVERGING ON A PATTERN OF VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY THE ECM SOLUTION THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPIATION ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING INVOF SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON.  OUR
WESTERN ROW OR TWO LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  HAVE
ACCORDINGLY TRENDED POPS A FEW POINTS IN ANTICIPATION OF A CLEARER
SYNOPTIC PICTURE.  WHILE WE WILL START OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY...A GENERAL COOLING TOWARD MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  63  91 /  10  10   0  10   0
TULIA         93  66  95  66  94 /  10  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     93  66  95  66  93 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  66  95  65  94 /  10  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  96  69  94 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   95  65  94  66  92 /  20  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    95  66  96  67  94 /  20  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS    100  72 101  72  99 /  10  10   0  10   0
SPUR          97  67  99  68  97 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  70 100  72  99 /  20  20   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26
289
FXUS64 KLUB 170443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL THIN BY DAYBREAK THEN RETURN SUN
AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND BECOMING EASTERLY. AFTN STORMS SUN MORE ISOLD THAN
TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE NERLY PUSHING MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS QUANTIFYING STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED FLOW...THOUGH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WAS CONTINUING TO BEND MORE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BEHIND A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
ANOTHER POCKET OF REMNANT RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALOFT...THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEHIND THE
WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXPANSIVE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC WIND FIELD WAS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS HOLDING IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON AND COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING...THIS WAS YIELDING MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
BRING THE BEST SHOT OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
HENCE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IMPINGE UPON THE LIGHT WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH.
RESPECTABLE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE DID MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS SOME INDICATION A
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE PRESENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCE CI
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE WRN END OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS HAVING
SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...SO FCST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY WARM WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
MOS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THE MID LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK...
AND FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THEM THAT WAY. SOME INDICATION THAT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND
TO DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  93  67 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72 100  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99
913
FXUS64 KLUB 170036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
736 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
UPDATED DISCUSSION. DEEP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD IMPACT KLBB TAF SITE AROUND 02Z WITH WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. CONVECTION THIS EVENING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES. DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY BRING BRIEF CIGS ABV 20KFT. WINDS LGT/VRBLY THROUGH MON AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS QUANTIFYING STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED FLOW...THOUGH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WAS CONTINUING TO BEND MORE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BEHIND A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
ANOTHER POCKET OF REMNANT RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALOFT...THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEHIND THE
WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXPANSIVE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC WIND FIELD WAS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS HOLDING IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON AND COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING...THIS WAS YIELDING MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
BRING THE BEST SHOT OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
HENCE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IMPINGE UPON THE LIGHT WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH.
RESPECTABLE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE DID MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS SOME INDICATION A
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE PRESENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCE CI
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE WRN END OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS HAVING
SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...SO FCST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY WARM WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
MOS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THE MID LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK...
AND FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THEM THAT WAY. SOME INDICATION THAT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND
TO DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  93  67 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72 100  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24
756
FXUS64 KLUB 162325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. CONVECTION THIS EVENING
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES. DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY BRING BRIEF CIGS ABV 20KFT. WINDS LGT/VRBLY THROUGH MON AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS QUANTIFYING STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED FLOW...THOUGH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WAS CONTINUING TO BEND MORE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BEHIND A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
ANOTHER POCKET OF REMNANT RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALOFT...THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEHIND THE
WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXPANSIVE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC WIND FIELD WAS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS HOLDING IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON AND COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING...THIS WAS YIELDING MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
BRING THE BEST SHOT OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
HENCE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IMPINGE UPON THE LIGHT WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH.
RESPECTABLE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE DID MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS SOME INDICATION A
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE PRESENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCE CI
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE WRN END OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS HAVING
SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...SO FCST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY WARM WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
MOS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THE MID LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK...
AND FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THEM THAT WAY. SOME INDICATION THAT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND
TO DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  93  67 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72 100  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/24
601
FXUS64 KLUB 161941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY IS QUANTIFYING STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED FLOW...THOUGH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM YESTERDAY.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WAS CONTINUING TO BEND MORE EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS...INCLUDING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE RICHEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA BEHIND A WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH
ANOTHER POCKET OF REMNANT RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ALOFT...THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS TURNED MORE NORTH-TO-SOUTH BEHIND THE
WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXPANSIVE
SOUTHWESTERN HIGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC WIND FIELD WAS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. SURFACE MOISTURE WAS HOLDING IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON AND COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING...THIS WAS YIELDING MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALMOST ANYWHERE AS WE HEAD THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
BRING THE BEST SHOT OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS THEY TRACK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD.
HENCE...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY BREEZES IMPINGE UPON THE LIGHT WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH.
RESPECTABLE PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

A NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BRING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT TOMORROW...AND THIS SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE DID MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS SOME INDICATION A
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BE PRESENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCE CI
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT AND
HOT DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MID-AUGUST AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE WRN END OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS HAVING
SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...SO FCST
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO BRING SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WRN
ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT UNTIL PICTURE BECOMES
CLEARER. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY WARM WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW
MOS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY THE MID LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK...
AND FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THEM THAT WAY. SOME INDICATION THAT
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE LIKELY
OUTCOME IS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND
TO DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  66  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  93  67 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72 100  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          69  96  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 100  71  99  72 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
839
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH LIGHT...THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST SEVERAL OF THE GRIDDED
FIELDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC SURFACE WINDS /MOSTLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY/ WERE IN PLACE AS OF 15Z...IN THE WAKE OF A GOOD SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOW SHIFTING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE AND AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
WAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STORM
ARCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WITH A LIGHT DIMINISHING BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
RESIDE OUTSIDE OF THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL AS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...WE DID MAINTAIN A SLIM SHOWER MENTION FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL RENEWED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION FIRE? IT APPEARS A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES /AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE/. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DIRECTED SOUTHWARD AND
WILL AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS
WILL BE DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE
AOA 1 INCH...AND COULD SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN
ADDITION...A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH ANY STRONGER PRECIPITATION CORES. WE DID RECONFIGURE
POPS SLIGHTLY...WHILE MAINTAINING A SCATTERED MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WHERE FORCING IS LESS CERTAIN.
THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  94  64  93  63 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  95  65  95  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  94  65  94  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  65  95  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  69  95  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  94  65  94  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  95  66  95  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  71  99  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  95  67  98  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  98  70  99  71 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
328
FXUS64 KLUB 161602 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST SEVERAL OF THE GRIDDED
FIELDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC SURFACE WINDS /MOSTLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY/ WERE IN PLACE AS OF 15Z...IN THE WAKE OF A GOOD SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOW SHIFTING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE AND AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
WAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STORM
ARCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WITH A LIGHT DIMINISHING BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
RESIDE OUTSIDE OF THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL AS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...WE DID MAINTAIN A SLIM SHOWER MENTION FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL RENEWED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION FIRE? IT APPEARS A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES /AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE/. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DIRECTED SOUTHWARD AND
WILL AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS
WILL BE DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE
AOA 1 INCH...AND COULD SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN
ADDITION...A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH ANY STRONGER PRECIPITATION CORES. WE DID RECONFIGURE
POPS SLIGHTLY...WHILE MAINTAINING A SCATTERED MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WHERE FORCING IS LESS CERTAIN.
THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT THE TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  64  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
TULIA         92  66  95  65  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     91  66  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  65  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  95  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  94  65  94 /  20  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  66  95  66  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  72 100  71  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          95  68  95  67  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72  98  70  99 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
496
FXUS64 KLUB 161106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT THE TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  64  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
TULIA         92  66  95  65  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     91  66  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  65  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  95  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  94  65  94 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  66  95  66  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  72 100  71  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          95  68  95  67  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72  98  70  99 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51
906
FXUS64 KLUB 160825
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  64  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
TULIA         92  66  95  65  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     91  66  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  65  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  95  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  94  65  94 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  66  95  66  95 /  30  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  72 100  71  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          95  68  95  67  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72  98  70  99 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/99
596
FXUS64 KLUB 160434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMERGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE HELPED TO SUPRESS THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXERTED A STRONG INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND PROVIDED DRY WEATHER. THIS
MODEST PATTERN SHIFT HAS ALLOWED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH THE 18Z SATELLITE DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING VALUES OF 100-120 PERCENT
OF NORMAL NOW SPILLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE IMPROVED MOISTURE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRAGGED EASTWARD AND WAS TRAILING FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS WERE
ALREADY NOTED DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LAZBUDDIE TO MULESHOE LINE AS
OF 1940Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.4 INCHES/...MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/...WEAK WIND SHEAR AND RATHER
LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE
ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEGREES ALONG WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...THOUGH THE EASTWARD EXTENT MAY BE THWARTED SOMEWHAT AS IT
ADVANCES OUT OF THE THETAE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST NWP SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF A QUITAQUE TO LUBBOCK TO NEW
MOORE LINE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AND TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES FOR MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP
AT LEAST LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WHILE ALSO EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN IT WOULD BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS LIMIT RENEWED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH...THOUGH WE DID TRIM FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DISPLACED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HOW TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY PLAYS OUT WILL HELP
DICTATE THE DETAILS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THE CAPROCK...AND LOW TO MIDDLE 70S COMMON IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SWD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AFTN. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS EXTREME SRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW MOVING SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS PROGGED TO BEGIN DRYING MONDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATING NWD AROUND THE FCST AREA FROM NM NEWD TO THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT GETS PICKED UP BY STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AS A RESULT APPEARS UPCOMING WEEK DOMINATED BY VERY LIMITED
RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  64  92  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  91  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  69  93  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  67 /  30  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     71 100  71  98  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          68  97  69  95  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
162
FXUS64 KLUB 152337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
KLBB TERMINAL AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT AFFECTING KLBB DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE
STORMS WILL KEEP POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM DURATION
BRIEF. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMERGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE HELPED TO SUPRESS THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXERTED A STRONG INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND PROVIDED DRY WEATHER. THIS
MODEST PATTERN SHIFT HAS ALLOWED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH THE 18Z SATELLITE DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING VALUES OF 100-120 PERCENT
OF NORMAL NOW SPILLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE IMPROVED MOISTURE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRAGGED EASTWARD AND WAS TRAILING FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS WERE
ALREADY NOTED DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LAZBUDDIE TO MULESHOE LINE AS
OF 1940Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.4 INCHES/...MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/...WEAK WIND SHEAR AND RATHER
LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE
ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEGREES ALONG WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...THOUGH THE EASTWARD EXTENT MAY BE THWARTED SOMEWHAT AS IT
ADVANCES OUT OF THE THETAE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST NWP SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF A QUITAQUE TO LUBBOCK TO NEW
MOORE LINE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AND TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES FOR MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP
AT LEAST LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WHILE ALSO EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN IT WOULD BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS LIMIT RENEWED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH...THOUGH WE DID TRIM FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DISPLACED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HOW TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY PLAYS OUT WILL HELP
DICTATE THE DETAILS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THE CAPROCK...AND LOW TO MIDDLE 70S COMMON IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SWD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AFTN. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS EXTREME SRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW MOVING SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS PROGGED TO BEGIN DRYING MONDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATING NWD AROUND THE FCST AREA FROM NM NEWD TO THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT GETS PICKED UP BY STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AS A RESULT APPEARS UPCOMING WEEK DOMINATED BY VERY LIMITED
RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  64  92  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  91  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  69  93  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  67 /  30  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     71 100  71  98  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          68  97  69  95  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
821
FXUS64 KLUB 152003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
303 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMERGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE HELPED TO SUPRESS THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXERTED A STRONG INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND PROVIDED DRY WEATHER. THIS
MODEST PATTERN SHIFT HAS ALLOWED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH THE 18Z SATELLITE DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING VALUES OF 100-120 PERCENT
OF NORMAL NOW SPILLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE IMPROVED MOISTURE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRAGGED EASTWARD AND WAS TRAILING FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS WERE
ALREADY NOTED DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LAZBUDDIE TO MULESHOE LINE AS
OF 1940Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.4 INCHES/...MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/...WEAK WIND SHEAR AND RATHER
LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE
ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEGREES ALONG WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...THOUGH THE EASTWARD EXTENT MAY BE THWARTED SOMEWHAT AS IT
ADVANCES OUT OF THE THETAE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST NWP SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF A QUITAQUE TO LUBBOCK TO NEW
MOORE LINE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AND TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES FOR MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP
AT LEAST LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WHILE ALSO EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN IT WOULD BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS LIMIT RENEWED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH...THOUGH WE DID TRIM FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DISPLACED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HOW TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY PLAYS OUT WILL HELP
DICTATE THE DETAILS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THE CAPROCK...AND LOW TO MIDDLE 70S COMMON IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SWD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AFTN. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS EXTREME SRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW MOVING SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS PROGGED TO BEGIN DRYING MONDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATING NWD AROUND THE FCST AREA FROM NM NEWD TO THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT GETS PICKED UP BY STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AS A RESULT APPEARS UPCOMING WEEK DOMINATED BY VERY LIMITED
RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  64  92  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  91  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  69  93  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  67 /  30  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     71 100  71  98  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          68  97  69  95  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
635
FXUS64 KLUB 151734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AT THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS LBB MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER SHOT THAN CDS TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT IMPACT
IS STILL A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS...WITH
THE BEST STORM CHANCES RESIDING TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...WE DID INCLUDE A VCTS REMARK AT LBB FROM 22Z WELL INTO
THE EVENING. OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY DIRECT STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE MADE TO EXPAND POPS EASTWARD A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION AND SHORT-RANGE NWP CONTINUE TO
FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MID/UPPER LEVEL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT WAS NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION...SEEN VISUALIZED IN SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO PEAK NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY LATE TODAY...BEFORE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS INCREASED TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALONG WITH RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW /AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS/ COULD SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR THOSE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET UNDER ANY STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES COULD
SUPPORT HYBRID-TYPE MICROBURSTS RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ACTIVITY
MAY EVEN TRY TO CONGEAL INTO A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS THIS EVENING
AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THOUGH A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT ITS EASTWARD
EXPANSE. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT STILL
FAVORING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY
AS THE RICH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
AND COUPLES WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXACT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS TIMING.
PRECIP MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER NM TAPERING OFF WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT
HELPED TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AROUND A
593 HIGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT LEE TROF WILL HELP
DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK MCS ALONG A SURFACE THETA E
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROF AND SLOWLY PROGRESS IT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT A FAST
MOVING MCS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE LIKELIHOOD TO
PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL AS PWATS WILL BE HIGH...AROUND 1.5
INCHES.

WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...MODELS HINT AT
A SMALL COMPLEX LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS...POSSIBLY A PRODUCT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS
WHICH IS BEING SUSTAINED WITH HELP FROM THE OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE. I
HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
EXISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. I HAVE ALSO KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE
TO CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. LOWS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD
BE RATHER PLEASANT AFTER BEING COOLED BY CONVECTION. LOWS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
DURING THE NEXT WEEK...ALL IS NOT ABSOLUTE EVEN THOUGH IT IS AUGUST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO ARIZONA AND REMAIN
OUT THERE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
EDGES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  A
RESPECTABLE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY THOUGH ITS
EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY OF THE DAY BEFORE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SEEDING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE THEREFORE GENERALLY
BLANKETED POPS SAT AND SUN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH HAVE MADE
AN ATTEMPT TO DEMONSTRATE SOME SORT OF GRADIENT GIVEN THE MOST
LIKELY AREA OF PRECIPITATION EVIDENT WITH THIS MORNING/S DATA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF MAY ALLOW WEAKLY FORCED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN
NWP...WILL KEEP WX GRIDS SILENT FOR THE TIME BEING AWAITING FURTHER
CLARITY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE NOTCHING DOWN
A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  64  93  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         64  95  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     65  94  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  96  66  94  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  96  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  95  66  95  66 /  30  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71 101  71  99  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          69  99  68  97  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     73 101  72  99  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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