Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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901
FXUS64 KLUB 192344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR THRU FRI WITH LIGHTER S-SW WINDS THAN TODAY /BECMG
LGT AND VRB AT CDS AROUND 12Z/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LEE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE HAVE SEEN THE RESULTS OF THIS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THANKS TO WEAK COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AND DRYING FROM THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE EVEN WITH THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. A FEW
MINUTES OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE
LINE IN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT THESE WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THEM DROP
QUITE AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT AS WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY THANKS TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND WHICH WILL GIVE A BOOST TO DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS.  HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE A BIT AS WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE ALOFT PUSHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK AND WILL
DO LITTLE TO LIMIT INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
A BIT LOWER HOWEVER WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FROM A FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
POINT OF VIEW AS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ONLY TRICKY AREA WILL BE
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE
LOW RESULTING IN WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.  THIS
SHOULD HOLD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND MAY KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...RELATIVELY COOL
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BE IN THE 80S.  THIS
WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO FALL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH NW FLOW ALOFT HAVING VEERED
TO NEAR ZONAL...COURTESY OF UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. A
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SAID UA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...WHILST
CONCURRENTLY A 1045 MB SFC RIDGE OOZES SOUTH FROM CANADA TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY COME IN
LINE WRT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW-MID ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY
HENCE THE LACK OF QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT...THOUGH LIGHT PRECIP
IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING PIECE OF ENERGY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC RIDGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE OVERLY STRONG...BUT N-NE SFC WINDS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. THE AIRMASS THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE USHERING IN WILL BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING
BELOW 0 C BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE -4 C TO -10 C RANGE BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

N-NE SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN E-NE UPSLOPE COMPONENT BY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIGHT QPF WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND NRWN ZONES SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A FEW EMBEDDED
IMPULSES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY ALSO BE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LIGHT PRECIP /THE GFS IS MOST
BULLISH AND STRONGEST WITH THE IMPULSES/. WITH RATHER COLD AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WILL
LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL OF COURSE BE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LACK
OF A SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM AND HENCE RELYING
ON ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LEADS ONE TO LEAN TOWARDS PRECIP AMOUNTS BEING RATHER LIGHT.
THOUGH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN DISPLAYING STRONGER EMBEDDED
IMPULSES...PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ZONES. MEANWHILE...THE OTHER
PIECE OF THE UA TROUGH IS EXHIBITED TO PINCH OFF A BIT FROM THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
CALI...BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK /ALL THE WHILE OPENING UP INTO
A WEAK WAVE/. WHETHER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IS HARD TO SAY ATTM. DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL SOLUTION IS BEING ANALYZED...SOME DISPLAY PRECIP CHANCES AND
OTHERS DO NOT.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY HAVE BEEN FINED TUNED GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE FROPA/S TIMING...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THEREAFTER...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND
40S SUNDAY AND INTO THE 20S AND 30S ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY-THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY MORNING /TEENS AND
20S/...DUE TO THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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