Area Forecast Discussion
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869
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WERE OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KCDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE OF A NORTHEAST LIGHT WIND OCCURRING AT KCDS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...BEFORE VEERING FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING /COULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL/. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING THUS VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE WHILE...FEW-SCT VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGHING AND
WESTERN RIDGING...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE LOOSES AMPLITUDE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COOL SURFACE HIGH TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR WILL BE DIRECTED WELL TO OUR EAST...THOUGH A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO AN EASTERLY PERSUASION OFF
THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EDGING FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AREA...ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND CLIMBING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY...EVEN AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES IN. ALL-IN-
ALL IT SHOULD BE A GREAT AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
COULD EVEN SQUEAK OUT A FEW LOWER 80S. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS NW MX
AND THE DESERT SW WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE
W-NW FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE FIRST SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS WEST TX ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE IMPACT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME MODEST MOISTURE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHARPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT/S PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION...RIGHT
NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.

ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SW TX WITH ROUGHLY EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SW TX SHOULD FAVOR
OUR SRN AND SE ZONES FOR PRECIP...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WE ARE ONLY GOING UP TO
LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
SHOULD THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WED AND
THU DESPITE PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK FROPA. BY NEXT FRIDAY...A
STRONGER FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE FRONT COULD
EFFECTUATE A SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        39  80  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         40  82  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  85  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  85  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          45  85  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     47  87  54  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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