Area Forecast Discussion
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772
FXUS64 KLUB 242120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THAT LOW...INITIALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW CLOSED FEATURE OVER NRN NEW MEXICO WHILE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND A 130-PLUS KT JET AT 250 MB MOVES FROM SRN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS LATTER STRONGER
FEATURE WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS RANGES EWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN BIG COUNTRY...
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER NORTH UNDERNEATH
THE NEWLY- DEVELOPED NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LOW...SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BUT MINIMIZED GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING. ANY PRECIP THAT IS
GENERATED WILL HAVE TO WORK THROUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR FURTHER
LIMITING SFC PRECIP POTENTIAL. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD THE SRN PANHANDLE... BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS SLIM. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE SRN EXTREMITY OF THE FCST
AREA ATTM.

CLEARING SKIES...MODEST WEST WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY...ALL POINT TO A NICE...ALBEIT BRIEF...WARMUP. 12Z NAM-BASED
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE COOLED DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO PERCEIVED
OVERABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY STRATUS ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH HALF OF THE DAY. PREFER WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...AND NEAR
PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
A SERIES OF IMPULSES AND ANOTHER VERY COLD INTRUSION. THIS NEXT
PLUNGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SPREADING IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COLDER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL SATURATION JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIMIZE CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. A MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB - 750MB LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
PERSIST ABOVE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF OR ALL DAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL BACK LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF ONE OF THE MODEST WAVES HELPING
TO CARVE OUT THE NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND WILL EJECT OVER THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 295K POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAYER NEAR 700 MB WITH
THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AND SHOULD BEGIN PRECIPITATING
INTO THE DRIER AIR BELOW. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATE LOWER
LEVELS IS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION...THOUGH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
DO ALLOW FOR MOST PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY
A LITTLE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY WITH TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.20" TO
0.40" RANGE. WE FEEL THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE THOUGH RETAINED OUR
NATIONAL GUIDANCE QPF CHARTS...WHILE CLIPPING PROJECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS TO MOSTLY UNDER 4". THE AIRMASS BY EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME VERY COLD...H850 MB TEMPERATURES PERHAPS AS LOW
AS -15 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...SO DRY SNOW RATIOS NEAR 17% SEEM
REASONABLE. ANYWAY...THIS CURRENTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE TO US OF A
ANOTHER ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER
NOTCH OR TWO FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS IMPULSE WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST LATER FRIDAY WHILE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN COLD AND MOIST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WHILE THE NEXT
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ALREADY WILL BE APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
COULD RENEW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE
FEATURES APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE WEEKEND WITH A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES OUR WAY THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL
FLOW. HARD TO DISCOUNT MODEL PRECIPITATION DEPICTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODIFY AND BE
REPLACED BY AN AIRMASS WARM ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY LIQUID. THIS
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT BY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
FINALLY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TO MOVE BACK TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE NEXT VERSION OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
TAKING PLACE WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES MID WEEK.

THIS IS ALL ABNORMALLY ACTIVE AND INCREASINGLY COMPLEX. WE HAVE
NECESSARILY ATTEMPTED TO PUT HIGHEST RESOLUTION IN THE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FEATURES...AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
BEYOND FRIDAY THAN ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  54  25  25 /  10   0  40  30
TULIA         21  55  26  27 /  10   0  30  20
PLAINVIEW     23  58  28  30 /  10   0  30  20
LEVELLAND     24  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       25  61  29  32 /  10   0  20  20
DENVER CITY   27  61  30  33 /  20   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    27  60  30  33 /  10   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     26  58  29  32 /  10   0  20  10
SPUR          27  60  31  35 /  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     30  58  32  36 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/05

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