Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

332
FXUS64 KLUB 200536
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONTAL PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA AND HAVE ADJUSTED FROPA AT EACH OF THE
SITES ACCORDINGLY. ASIDE FROM GUSTY NORTHEASTERLIES...CONDITIONS
APPEAR PRETTY TAME FOR OUR THREE SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LATER TONIGHT...A MODEST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHOVE SOUTH BUT WITH SLACKED PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RESULT SHOULD BE COOLING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY
MODEST NORTHEAST BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON SPLIT STREAM
ENERGY PHASING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FROM 12Z CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS AND OVERALL FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
GRIDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TWO MAIN AREAS OF LIFT WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST AREA OF LIFT WILL RESULT
IN PRECIP EXPANSION ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHOT OF LIFT WILL FORCE EXPANDING PRECIP
FROM THE TRANS PECOS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS PUTTING A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE CWA. ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
REGION AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS...SAVE MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. PHASE CHANGES ALWAYS MAKE SNOWFALL AMOUNT
FORECASTING A FUN TIME. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL QPFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OF 4 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW TYPE PRODUCER AND MODEL SOLUTIONS
TEND TO OVERESTIMATE QPF WITH POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS IN THIS NECK OF
THE WOODS. FOR THIS GO AROUND...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NOW.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN WILL EVOLVE FOR REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND BLENDED GRID SOLUTIONS OFFER A
BELIEVABLE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER EXISTS IN WAKE OF CURRENT
SYSTEM. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  52  30  43  26 /   0   0   0  30  60
TULIA         32  52  31  45  28 /   0   0   0  20  60
PLAINVIEW     32  54  31  47  29 /   0   0   0  20  60
LEVELLAND     31  57  32  48  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       32  57  32  49  30 /   0   0   0  10  60
DENVER CITY   31  62  32  45  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
BROWNFIELD    32  60  33  47  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     38  57  34  53  35 /   0   0   0  10  60
SPUR          36  58  34  52  32 /   0   0   0  10  60
ASPERMONT     38  60  35  55  35 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.