259
FXUS64 KLUB 131129
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET AND HOT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS SWAY BUT BEGINS TO SEE ITS GRIP WEAKENED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA AND NRN DURANGO WILL DRIFT NWD TODAY AND
TONIGHT CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE AREAS NEAR CHILDRESS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OF THAT OCCURRING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT POSSIBILITY
STILL SMALL. WILL NUDGE POPS UP THAT TIME PERIOD BUT KEEP BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
TWO UNIQUELY SEPARATE FCST CHALLENGES AWAIT THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A SUBTROPICAL LOW/BROAD WAVE EDGING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BEHIND OUR DEPARTING UPPER HIGH...AND THE SECOND IS
A MORE DISTINCT DECAY OF SAID HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES AND SINKS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. BOTH OF THESE
DILEMMAS PRESENT INTERESTING SCENARIOS FOR RAINFALL...WITH PERHAPS
THE LATTER PROVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED BOUTS OF NOCTURNAL MCSS IN AN UNSETTLED W-NW FLOW REGIME.
MORE ON THAT LATER.
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS STILL HIGHER THAN WE`D
LIKE TO SEE ONE DAY OUT FROM THE EVENT...BUT SADLY THIS IS
BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH FEATURES OVER MEXICO THAT ARE SO POORLY
SAMPLED BY RAOBS. VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF CG LIGHTNING LENDS
SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE NAM`S MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS WAVE BY
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVER THE TX-NM BORDER...BUT AT THIS POINT OUR
FORECAST REMAINS WEIGHTED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD
ON THE CAPROCK...THE HIGHEST PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN OFF
THE CAPROCK AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S TRACK. INITIAL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY.
ALMOST NIL THREAT FOR SEVERE IN THIS SETUP AS DEEP WARM CLOUD
SATURATION WILL STUNT HAIL GROWTH AND GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE GUST
POTENTIAL. INSTEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STEAL THE
LIMELIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
SLOW AND/OR TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OTHERWISE...COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...THE GFS STILL LOOKS MUCH TOO
BULLISH IN KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OUR OF CWA BY SAT
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP THIS DEPARTURE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY SAT
EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUN
AND MON FAVORS MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS IT
RETROGRADES INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF`S IDEA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND UNTIL RECENTLY THE GFS WANTED NO PART OF IT. NOW
THE TABLE IS TURNING IN FAVOR OF AN ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST SERN COLORADO INTO NWRN OKLAHOMA. TYPICALLY
WE CAN EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SPREADING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR DOMAIN DURING THESE SETUPS AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS MON-WED
COULD BE LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO HOST LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT MCSS IN MODEST W-NW FLOW. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
JUST ONE PERIOD /MON NIGHT/ FOR NOW FOR POPS OVER OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON FINER DETAILS
SUCH AS CONVECTIVE RECOVERY AND THE LOCATION OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.
TEMP-WISE...CONTINUED TO KEEP SATURDAY THE COOLEST WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 80S GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SUCH LOW THICKNESSES FROM THE
SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SHOULD SEE A QUICK REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS BY SUN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE WITH VALUES REMAINING IN CHECK NEXT WEEK
UNDER SHALLOW RIDGING AT BEST. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO DO THEIR PART TO KEEP DAYTIME THICKNESSES IN LINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 66 88 64 89 / 0 0 20 10 20
TULIA 96 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 95 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 93 68 88 67 89 / 0 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 94 69 88 68 88 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENVER CITY 92 67 86 66 91 / 0 10 30 30 30
BROWNFIELD 92 68 86 67 89 / 0 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 98 73 96 70 88 / 0 0 0 20 50
SPUR 94 71 92 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 96 73 94 72 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93/07
