551
FXUS64 KLUB 190455
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXISTS THROUGH
12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT BEST. CDS HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIN IS ON THE RISE
DUE TO WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS FORMING A PRETTY STOUT CAP...WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE AMA 00Z SOUNDING...AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COMING TO AN END. THE BEST CHANCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THESE STORMS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 62 94 64 94 / 30 40 20 20 20
TULIA 85 65 93 68 95 / 20 40 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 86 66 93 69 95 / 20 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 87 67 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 87 68 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 69 95 70 97 / 20 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 87 69 96 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 89 69 93 70 98 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 88 69 94 70 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 88 70 96 72 99 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
284
FXUS64 KLUB 190201
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIN IS ON THE RISE
DUE TO WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS FORMING A PRETTY STOUT CAP...WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE AMA 00Z SOUNDING...AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COMING TO AN END. THE BEST CHANCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THESE STORMS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 40 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 30 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 20 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31
728
FXUS64 KLUB 182326
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 50 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 40 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
617
FXUS64 KLUB 182041
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 94 64 94 64 / 50 20 20 20 20
TULIA 65 93 68 95 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 93 69 95 69 / 40 20 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 67 95 71 96 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 95 71 96 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 97 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 69 93 70 98 72 / 30 20 20 10 10
SPUR 69 94 70 97 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 72 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
463
FXUS64 KLUB 181734
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY NOW IN SLOW
RECOVERY. MAIN SURFACE FORCING HAS PUSHED TO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FROM THERE...THOUGH BECOMING A BIT
DIFFUSE AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE ON THE
CAP-ROCK. BELIEVE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY WILL SHOW WITH
FORCING NEAR THE STATE LINE POTENTIALLY VALID FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 650-600 MB
LAYER SHOULD COUNTER THAT TO SOME EXTENT. LATER IN THE EVENING THE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE THUNDER
CHANCES SPREAD IN FROM DEVELOPMENT ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH AS A WEAK IMPULSE GLIDES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. WE TRIMMED THUNDER MENTION MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HOLDING ON TO PREVIOUS CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
BEST OPPORTUNITY SEVERE NEAR THE STATE LINE LATER TODAY THOUGH
CONDITIONAL ON THE CAP BREAKING...THEN SPREADING INTO MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
RETAINED LOW CHANCE THUNDER FOR TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING
UNTIL A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY
REDEVELOPS. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WEST OF KLBB UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT THAT TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TS
POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ERN NM AND AREAS WEST/NW OF KLBB THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. FOR NOW PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS LOOKS
GOOD WITH LATER SHIFTS ABLE TO FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.
FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 93 63 94 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
TULIA 65 91 66 95 67 / 40 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 66 92 66 95 68 / 40 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 95 68 96 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 94 68 96 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 70 97 68 97 69 / 20 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 70 96 67 97 69 / 30 0 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 68 93 69 98 72 / 30 10 10 10 10
SPUR 69 95 68 97 71 / 30 10 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 70 96 71 99 73 / 30 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/05
242
FXUS64 KLUB 181121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SHRA AND ISOLATED TS WEST OF KLBB UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT THAT TERMINAL IN THE NEAR TERM. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TS
POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ERN NM AND AREAS WEST/NW OF KLBB THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST. FOR NOW PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS LOOKS
GOOD WITH LATER SHIFTS ABLE TO FINE TUNE AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.
FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 63 93 63 94 / 30 40 10 10 10
TULIA 84 65 91 66 95 / 30 40 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 66 92 66 95 / 30 40 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 86 68 95 68 96 / 30 30 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 86 68 94 68 96 / 30 30 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 88 70 97 68 97 / 30 20 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 86 70 96 67 97 / 30 30 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 68 93 69 98 / 20 30 10 10 10
SPUR 87 69 95 68 97 / 30 30 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 87 70 96 71 99 / 20 30 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29/07
950
FXUS64 KLUB 180743
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
243 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 07Z SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM LAS
VEGAS TO CLOVIS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTINUE TO OR EVEN A
BIT AFTER 12Z WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT DRIVING THEM SEWD INTO 20 TO
30 KT ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD ABATE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT WORTH KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION GOING AFT 12Z.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTN AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z MODEL NOT INSPIRING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUING WITH THE SRN BRANCH EXTENDING FROM SOCAL TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY...AND A GENERAL SELY MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. SPECIFICS OF THAT LATTER POINT A BIT FUZZY GIVEN
THAT APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DRIVEN WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVER
SELY FLOW ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL FLOW. ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES A
PREFERENCE TO THE GFS THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS ERN
NM AND POSSIBLY WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN AN AREA OF PROGGED
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 35-40 KTS AND HODOGRAPHS SHOWING GOOD TURNING IN
LOWEST 3 KM SUGGEST A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS
OF THE EVENT FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A LINEAR MCS...ALTHOUGH THAT
LATTER PART IS NOT AS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS ATTM. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES PARTICULARLY WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE
WRF-NAM...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 PCT
ATTM.
FCST HIGH TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN PARTICULAR
WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT MOIST SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER SUGGEST RELATIVELY COOL MOS
GUIDANCE A GOOD STARTING POINT. GOING BACK TO THE PRECIP DISCUSSION
ABOVE...THESE RELATIVELY COOL HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY KEEPING THE CAP TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ANOTHER REASON NOT TO INCREASE POPS ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TOMORROW...AS UA RIDGING PLAGUES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLIM AS A
SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE /CENTERED CLOSE BY/ RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW. INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE 90S /NOT OVERLY HOT/ AND STORMS BECOMING
HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UA LOW MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...WILL ENCOURAGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SW FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY FROM THE SWRN CONUS...TO ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA.
HOWEVER LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE UA RIDGE
SHIFTING A BIT TO THE EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OK...WHILST A SFC TROUGH
DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM TAKING SHAPE EACH AFTN-NIGHT
WED-SUN. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY AND SFC
CONFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE SF TROUGH...STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME. WITH
ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW...STORMS COULD CLIP THE FAR WRN AND NWRN
ZONES. THIS OF COURSE WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ITS TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN ABOUT ITS EXACT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION. WILL HOLD ON TO 10-13
PERCENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...THUS MAINTAINING SILENT WX
GRIDS ATTM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 83 63 93 63 94 / 30 40 10 10 10
TULIA 84 65 91 66 95 / 30 40 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 66 92 66 95 / 30 40 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 86 68 95 68 96 / 30 30 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 86 68 94 68 96 / 30 30 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 88 70 97 68 97 / 30 20 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 86 70 96 67 97 / 30 30 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 88 68 93 69 98 / 20 30 10 10 10
SPUR 87 69 95 68 97 / 30 30 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 87 70 96 71 99 / 20 30 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29
561
FXUS64 KLUB 180429
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ATTM FOR BOTH TERMINALS...BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LBB FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO CDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHICH WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS...SOME LOWERED CIGS...AND REDUCED VIS FOR SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. BY EARLY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDENT BOUNDARY ACROSS KLBB
TERMINAL THIS AFTN. MORE STABLE AIR IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
KEEPING STORMS AT BAY AT KCDS FOR THE MOMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MCS ROLLS EAST FROM
NM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT ERRATIC WINDS
MAY IMPACT KLBB THROUGH EVENING BETWEEN STORM COMPLEX AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BEHIND CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR A POSSIBILITY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO
LARGE TO PUT IN TAF ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING TO LOOK ONEROUS BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING ITS HAND AS TO WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
LOCALLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME BULKY CU DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF ABILENE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
KING...STONEWALL...DICKENS AND KENT COUNTIES LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL
VERY PALTRY SURFACE WINDS NOT ADDING MUCH TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELDS OR UPSLOPE ALONG THE CAPROCK. MORE STABLE AIRMASS EVIDENT
OVER THE EASTERN PNHDL INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE TRIED TO FORM BUT OVERALL CIN IS
KEEPING SURFACE BASED STORMS AT BAY.
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD
ACTIVITY FORMING VCNTY THE BOUNDARY N-NE OF LUBBOCK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS EVOLVING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS IN NM. LATEST OBJ ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AXIS OF H7
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN PLAINS OF NM SE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE LATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40KT EXIST
OVERLAID ON MLCAPES OF 3-3.5KJ/KG. STORM MOTION VECTORS LATER THIS
EVENING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS ERN NM TO MOVE ALONG
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
THE US 84 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE HIGH WITH
HODOGRAPHS INDICATING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING DOMINANT STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL BUT THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION INTO GREATER WIND THREAT LATE IN THE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION UPSCALES INTO LINEAR MCS WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SECONDARY ORGANIZED MCS
FURTHER N FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
LATER IN THE EVENING POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING WITH SOUTHERN MOST
COMPLEX FURTHER LENGTHENING STORM DURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND EXITING MCS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTN TUE. MORE STORMS THEN LOOK TO FORM IN SIMILAR MANNER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH STORM MOTION ONCE
AGAIN AIMED AT THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTN TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE
TEMPERED BY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN RESULTING IN HIGHS AOB CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
AT LEAST EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY
CONGEALS ACROSS NE AND E NM...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY
SEASONABLY FAST WNW WINDS ALOFT... WHICH SHOULD YIELD 40-50 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR WITH A STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST VERY FAST ESE TO SE STORM
MOTIONS OF 40 TO 45 KTS... WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING
FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
TO NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
WHILE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF TODAYS EVENTS... AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND WEAK SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE
MODEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...STRONG CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO COULD CLIP WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND STOUT CAPPING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SEEMS IMPROBABLE... AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY JUST YET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT OPPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... WITH BREEZY WINDS AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS
COVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 85 63 93 62 / 60 30 40 10 10
TULIA 64 83 65 92 66 / 60 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 67 84 66 93 67 / 60 30 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 89 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 87 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 91 69 95 68 / 50 20 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 90 70 95 68 / 60 30 30 0 10
CHILDRESS 68 88 68 92 68 / 50 30 30 10 10
SPUR 70 89 71 96 68 / 60 30 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 73 91 71 97 71 / 60 30 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
044
FXUS64 KLUB 172335
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDENT BOUNDARY ACROSS KLBB
TERMINAL THIS AFTN. MORE STABLE AIR IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
KEEPING STORMS AT BAY AT KCDS FOR THE MOMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS MCS ROLLS EAST FROM
NM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT ERRATIC WINDS
MAY IMPACT KLBB THROUGH EVENING BETWEEN STORM COMPLEX AND ONGOING
CONVECTION. MVFR CIGS LIKELY BEHIND CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR A POSSIBILITY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO
LARGE TO PUT IN TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING TO LOOK ONEROUS BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING ITS HAND AS TO WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
LOCALLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME BULKY CU DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF ABILENE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
KING...STONEWALL...DICKENS AND KENT COUNTIES LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL
VERY PALTRY SURFACE WINDS NOT ADDING MUCH TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELDS OR UPSLOPE ALONG THE CAPROCK. MORE STABLE AIRMASS EVIDENT
OVER THE EASTERN PNHDL INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE TRIED TO FORM BUT OVERALL CIN IS
KEEPING SURFACE BASED STORMS AT BAY.
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD
ACTIVITY FORMING VCNTY THE BOUNDARY N-NE OF LUBBOCK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS EVOLVING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS IN NM. LATEST OBJ ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AXIS OF H7
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN PLAINS OF NM SE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE LATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40KT EXIST
OVERLAID ON MLCAPES OF 3-3.5KJ/KG. STORM MOTION VECTORS LATER THIS
EVENING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS ERN NM TO MOVE ALONG
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
THE US 84 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE HIGH WITH
HODOGRAPHS INDICATING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING DOMINANT STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL BUT THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION INTO GREATER WIND THREAT LATE IN THE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION UPSCALES INTO LINEAR MCS WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SECONDARY ORGANIZED MCS
FURTHER N FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
LATER IN THE EVENING POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING WITH SOUTHERN MOST
COMPLEX FURTHER LENGTHENING STORM DURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND EXITING MCS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTN TUE. MORE STORMS THEN LOOK TO FORM IN SIMILAR MANNER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH STORM MOTION ONCE
AGAIN AIMED AT THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTN TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE
TEMPERED BY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN RESULTING IN HIGHS AOB CLIMO.
LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
AT LEAST EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY
CONGEALS ACROSS NE AND E NM...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY
SEASONABLY FAST WNW WINDS ALOFT... WHICH SHOULD YIELD 40-50 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR WITH A STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST VERY FAST ESE TO SE STORM
MOTIONS OF 40 TO 45 KTS... WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING
FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
TO NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
WHILE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF TODAYS EVENTS... AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND WEAK SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE
MODEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...STRONG CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO COULD CLIP WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND STOUT CAPPING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SEEMS IMPROBABLE... AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY JUST YET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT OPPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... WITH BREEZY WINDS AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS
COVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 85 63 93 62 / 60 30 40 10 10
TULIA 64 83 65 92 66 / 60 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 67 84 66 93 67 / 60 30 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 89 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 87 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 91 69 95 68 / 60 20 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 90 70 95 68 / 60 30 30 0 10
CHILDRESS 68 88 68 92 68 / 50 30 30 10 10
SPUR 70 89 71 96 68 / 60 30 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 73 91 71 97 71 / 60 30 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
919
FXUS64 KLUB 172006
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING TO LOOK ONEROUS BUT STILL
NOT SHOWING ITS HAND AS TO WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
LOCALLY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME BULKY CU DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY NORTH OF ABILENE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN INCREASING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
KING...STONEWALL...DICKENS AND KENT COUNTIES LAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL
VERY PALTRY SURFACE WINDS NOT ADDING MUCH TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FIELDS OR UPSLOPE ALONG THE CAPROCK. MORE STABLE AIRMASS EVIDENT
OVER THE EASTERN PNHDL INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE SOME ELEVATED ECHOES HAVE TRIED TO FORM BUT OVERALL CIN IS
KEEPING SURFACE BASED STORMS AT BAY.
LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE SOME ISOLD
ACTIVITY FORMING VCNTY THE BOUNDARY N-NE OF LUBBOCK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS EVOLVING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS IN NM. LATEST OBJ ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES AXIS OF H7
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ERN PLAINS OF NM SE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE LATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40KT EXIST
OVERLAID ON MLCAPES OF 3-3.5KJ/KG. STORM MOTION VECTORS LATER THIS
EVENING FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS ERN NM TO MOVE ALONG
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
THE US 84 CORRIDOR. INITIALLY SUPERCELL THREAT WILL BE HIGH WITH
HODOGRAPHS INDICATING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING DOMINANT STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL BUT THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION INTO GREATER WIND THREAT LATE IN THE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION UPSCALES INTO LINEAR MCS WHICH
EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SECONDARY ORGANIZED MCS
FURTHER N FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SHOULD HAVE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD IMPACT NORTHERN AREAS
LATER IN THE EVENING POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING WITH SOUTHERN MOST
COMPLEX FURTHER LENGTHENING STORM DURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND EXITING MCS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH
EARLY AFTN TUE. MORE STORMS THEN LOOK TO FORM IN SIMILAR MANNER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH STORM MOTION ONCE
AGAIN AIMED AT THE SOUTH PLAINS. AFTN TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE
TEMPERED BY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER WIDESPREAD FOOTPRINT OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN RESULTING IN HIGHS AOB CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BY TUESDAY EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
AT LEAST EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY
CONGEALS ACROSS NE AND E NM...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY
SEASONABLY FAST WNW WINDS ALOFT... WHICH SHOULD YIELD 40-50 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR WITH A STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST VERY FAST ESE TO SE STORM
MOTIONS OF 40 TO 45 KTS... WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING
FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
TO NEAR 2500 J/KG WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN DISCRETE
WHILE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF TODAYS EVENTS... AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SLIM AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS ALOFT AND WEAK SW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE
MODEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE AREA DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...STRONG CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ORIGINATING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO COULD CLIP WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND STOUT CAPPING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SEEMS IMPROBABLE... AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY JUST YET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL BUT
NOT OPPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK... WITH BREEZY WINDS AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS
COVER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 85 63 93 62 / 60 30 40 10 10
TULIA 64 83 65 92 66 / 60 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 67 84 66 93 67 / 60 30 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 89 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 87 68 94 69 / 60 30 30 10 10
DENVER CITY 68 91 69 95 68 / 60 20 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 68 90 70 95 68 / 60 30 30 0 10
CHILDRESS 68 88 68 92 68 / 50 30 30 10 10
SPUR 70 89 71 96 68 / 60 30 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 73 91 71 97 71 / 60 30 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/16
344
FXUS64 KLUB 171739
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING OF CONVECTION IMPACTING
TERMINALS. SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY
FRONTALY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF KLBB AND ACROSS ERN NM. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WORK SE INTO KLBB TERMINAL BEFORE 18/00Z AND KCDS SHORTLY
AFTER. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AT
TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED MVFR CIGS IN WAKE OF MAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH
LATE MORNING AT KLBB GIVEN UPSLOPE CONIDTIONS AND RATHER LARGE
FOOTPRINT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS COULD DROP LOCALLY TO IFR
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS WITH POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND TO INCREASE POPS. HAVE MOVED AXIS OF BEST RAIN
CHANCES A BIT WEST WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STALLED FROM NEAR MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW
TO MATADOR LATER THIS AFTN. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES IN
NEW MEXICO. THE LATTER ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK EAST THIS EVENING AND
TURN SOUTH INTO A MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SCATTERED STORMS COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVE MCS INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE LONG 0-6KM VECTORS WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
FAVORING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE
STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR SOUTHWARD MOVING COMPLEX. A FEW
CAVEATS TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT COLD POOL/STABLE AIR SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO COULD TEMPER INSTABILITY AND
REDUCE COVERAGE OF STORMS INITIALLY AS THEY ROLL SE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ACTIVITY TOGETHER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE AND
AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UA
RIDGE THAT HAS ESTABLISHED WNW FLOW ALOFT...RESULTED IN CI ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND HAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LAST NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED WITH ATTENTION NOW TURNED TO A STRONGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE HE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WITH A
20-30 KT LLJ ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOIST LOW LEVEL WILL PERSEVERE WHICH WILL OF COURSE AID TO
FEED THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. IT IS NO WONDER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE ERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL ZONES /DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ LATER THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAD TO BE ISSUED AN
HOUR OR SO AGO FOR SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS...BUT RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY BEHAVING ATTM. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THESE STORMS TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLY A WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MAY CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LULL
IN ACTIVITY BY MID-MORNING-AFTN...AS IS BEING SHOWN PER THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO IN
ADDITION TO AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS FIRING ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO AND NEARING THE
WESTERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL HEATING /TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 90S/ AND LINGERING REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
PROMOTING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA.
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS...THE LLJ INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CREATE CI ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THIS MORNING/S COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLY RE-ORGANIZING
NEAR/ACROSS ERN ZONES AS SHOWN PER THE GFS. WITH PWATS OF 1.20-1.60
INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING ORGANIZED AND PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN NEAR 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
LONG TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY BEFORE THINGS LIKELY TO SHUT
DOWN. MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
CONFLUENCE ALONG REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAD TO PRETTY
GOOD THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES LIKELY TO COME WITH NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SEE STORMS INITIATE FURTHER EAST INTO WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO HELP
BREAK THE CAP. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SET TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-
SECTION PROBABLY CUTTING OF STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE NWRN ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO DIURNAL SFC
TROUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDER ON ANY GIVEN AFTN.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST
ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR UPPER SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NM TO
THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE. IN
GENERAL...WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT EXTREME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 84 64 95 64 / 60 30 40 10 10
TULIA 66 84 67 95 66 / 60 30 40 10 10
PLAINVIEW 67 87 68 95 68 / 60 30 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 68 88 67 97 67 / 60 30 30 10 10
LUBBOCK 69 89 69 96 68 / 60 30 30 10 10
DENVER CITY 69 91 67 96 68 / 60 20 20 0 10
BROWNFIELD 69 91 67 97 69 / 60 30 30 0 10
CHILDRESS 69 88 69 96 71 / 50 30 40 10 10
SPUR 71 88 70 97 70 / 60 30 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 73 91 71 99 73 / 60 30 30 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/16
620
FXUS64 KLUB 171622
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND TO INCREASE POPS. HAVE MOVED AXIS OF BEST RAIN
CHANCES A BIT WEST WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STALLED FROM NEAR MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW
TO MATADOR LATER THIS AFTN. SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES IN
NEW MEXICO. THE LATTER ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK EAST THIS EVENING AND
TURN SOUTH INTO A MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SCATTERED STORMS COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO A
PROGRESSIVE MCS INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE LONG 0-6KM VECTORS WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE
FAVORING SPLITTING OR LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE
STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR SOUTHWARD MOVING COMPLEX. A FEW
CAVEATS TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT COLD POOL/STABLE AIR SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO COULD TEMPER INSTABILITY AND
REDUCE COVERAGE OF STORMS INITIALLY AS THEY ROLL SE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ACTIVITY TOGETHER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
LIGHT -SHRA WERE NORTH AND EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
DEVELOPING -SHRA SOUTH OF KLBB. WILL INSERT A VCSH FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT STORMS FIRING UP ACROSS ERN NEW
MEXICO AND POSSIBLY NEARING KLBB LATE THIS AFTN...WITH LINGERING
-SHRA NEAR KCDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRECIP ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE ENE AND PROMOTE TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. AS
SUCH...VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME RESTRICTED TO VFR-MVFR CRITERIA.
FURTHERMORE...MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE AND
AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UA
RIDGE THAT HAS ESTABLISHED WNW FLOW ALOFT...RESULTED IN CI ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND HAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LAST NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED WITH ATTENTION NOW TURNED TO A STRONGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE HE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WITH A
20-30 KT LLJ ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOIST LOW LEVEL WILL PERSEVERE WHICH WILL OF COURSE AID TO
FEED THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. IT IS NO WONDER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE ERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL ZONES /DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ LATER THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAD TO BE ISSUED AN
HOUR OR SO AGO FOR SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS...BUT RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY BEHAVING ATTM. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THESE STORMS TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLY A WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MAY CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LULL
IN ACTIVITY BY MID-MORNING-AFTN...AS IS BEING SHOWN PER THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO IN
ADDITION TO AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS FIRING ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO AND NEARING THE
WESTERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL HEATING /TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 90S/ AND LINGERING REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
PROMOTING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA.
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS...THE LLJ INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CREATE CI ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THIS MORNING/S COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLY RE-ORGANIZING
NEAR/ACROSS ERN ZONES AS SHOWN PER THE GFS. WITH PWATS OF 1.20-1.60
INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING ORGANIZED AND PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN NEAR 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
LONG TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY BEFORE THINGS LIKELY TO SHUT
DOWN. MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
CONFLUENCE ALONG REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAD TO PRETTY
GOOD THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES LIKELY TO COME WITH NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SEE STORMS INITIATE FURTHER EAST INTO WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO HELP
BREAK THE CAP. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SET TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-
SECTION PROBABLY CUTTING OF STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE NWRN ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO DIURNAL SFC
TROUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDER ON ANY GIVEN AFTN.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST
ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR UPPER SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NM TO
THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE. IN
GENERAL...WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT EXTREME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 84 64 95 / 40 60 30 40 10
TULIA 90 66 84 67 95 / 40 60 30 40 10
PLAINVIEW 91 67 87 68 95 / 40 60 30 40 10
LEVELLAND 94 68 88 67 97 / 30 60 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 94 69 89 69 96 / 30 60 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 95 69 91 67 96 / 30 60 20 20 0
BROWNFIELD 95 69 91 67 97 / 30 60 30 30 0
CHILDRESS 96 69 88 69 96 / 30 50 30 40 10
SPUR 96 71 88 70 97 / 30 60 30 30 10
ASPERMONT 98 73 91 71 99 / 30 60 30 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/16
394
FXUS64 KLUB 171125
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT -SHRA WERE NORTH AND EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
DEVELOPING -SHRA SOUTH OF KLBB. WILL INSERT A VCSH FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT STORMS FIRING UP ACROSS ERN NEW
MEXICO AND POSSIBLY NEARING KLBB LATE THIS AFTN...WITH LINGERING
-SHRA NEAR KCDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRECIP ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
VEER WINDS TO THE ENE AND PROMOTE TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. AS
SUCH...VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME RESTRICTED TO VFR-MVFR CRITERIA.
FURTHERMORE...MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE AND
AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UA
RIDGE THAT HAS ESTABLISHED WNW FLOW ALOFT...RESULTED IN CI ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND HAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LAST NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED WITH ATTENTION NOW TURNED TO A STRONGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE HE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WITH A
20-30 KT LLJ ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOIST LOW LEVEL WILL PERSEVERE WHICH WILL OF COURSE AID TO
FEED THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. IT IS NO WONDER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE ERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL ZONES /DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ LATER THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAD TO BE ISSUED AN
HOUR OR SO AGO FOR SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS...BUT RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY BEHAVING ATTM. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THESE STORMS TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLY A WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MAY CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LULL
IN ACTIVITY BY MID-MORNING-AFTN...AS IS BEING SHOWN PER THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO IN
ADDITION TO AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS FIRING ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO AND NEARING THE
WESTERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL HEATING /TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 90S/ AND LINGERING REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
PROMOTING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA.
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS...THE LLJ INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CREATE CI ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THIS MORNING/S COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLY RE-ORGANIZING
NEAR/ACROSS ERN ZONES AS SHOWN PER THE GFS. WITH PWATS OF 1.20-1.60
INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING ORGANIZED AND PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN NEAR 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
LONG TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY BEFORE THINGS LIKELY TO SHUT
DOWN. MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
CONFLUENCE ALONG REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAD TO PRETTY
GOOD THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES LIKELY TO COME WITH NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SEE STORMS INITIATE FURTHER EAST INTO WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO HELP
BREAK THE CAP. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SET TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-
SECTION PROBABLY CUTTING OF STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE NWRN ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO DIURNAL SFC
TROUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDER ON ANY GIVEN AFTN.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST
ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR UPPER SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NM TO
THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE. IN
GENERAL...WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT EXTREME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 84 64 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
TULIA 90 66 84 67 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
PLAINVIEW 91 67 87 68 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
LEVELLAND 94 68 88 67 97 / 20 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 95 69 89 69 96 / 20 50 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 95 69 91 67 96 / 20 40 20 20 0
BROWNFIELD 95 69 91 67 97 / 20 40 30 30 0
CHILDRESS 96 69 88 69 96 / 20 60 30 40 10
SPUR 96 71 88 70 97 / 20 50 30 30 10
ASPERMONT 98 73 91 71 99 / 20 50 30 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
238
FXUS64 KLUB 170806
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE AND
AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UA
RIDGE THAT HAS ESTABLISHED WNW FLOW ALOFT...RESULTED IN CI ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY EVENING...AND HAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LAST NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED WITH ATTENTION NOW TURNED TO A STRONGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE HE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WITH A
20-30 KT LLJ ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MOIST LOW LEVEL WILL PERSEVERE WHICH WILL OF COURSE AID TO
FEED THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. IT IS NO WONDER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE ERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL ZONES /DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ LATER THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAD TO BE ISSUED AN
HOUR OR SO AGO FOR SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS...BUT RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY BEHAVING ATTM. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THESE STORMS TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
OR POSSIBLY A WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED.
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MAY CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE/LULL
IN ACTIVITY BY MID-MORNING-AFTN...AS IS BEING SHOWN PER THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO IN
ADDITION TO AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT...MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STORMS FIRING ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO AND NEARING THE
WESTERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL HEATING /TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 90S/ AND LINGERING REMNANT BOUNDARIES MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
PROMOTING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA.
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS...THE LLJ INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CREATE CI ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THIS MORNING/S COMPLEX OF STORMS POSSIBLY RE-ORGANIZING
NEAR/ACROSS ERN ZONES AS SHOWN PER THE GFS. WITH PWATS OF 1.20-1.60
INCHES AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING ORGANIZED AND PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN NEAR 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ONE MORE DAY OF RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY BEFORE THINGS LIKELY TO SHUT
DOWN. MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
CONFLUENCE ALONG REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEAD TO PRETTY
GOOD THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES LIKELY TO COME WITH NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION...BUT COULD
SEE STORMS INITIATE FURTHER EAST INTO WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO HELP
BREAK THE CAP. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SET TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-
SECTION PROBABLY CUTTING OF STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE NWRN ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO DIURNAL SFC
TROUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE THUNDER ON ANY GIVEN AFTN.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS JUST
ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR UPPER SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NM TO
THE CNTL PLAINS WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE. IN
GENERAL...WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT EXTREME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 84 64 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
TULIA 90 66 84 67 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
PLAINVIEW 91 67 87 68 95 / 20 50 30 40 10
LEVELLAND 94 68 88 67 97 / 20 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 94 69 89 69 96 / 20 50 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 95 69 91 67 96 / 20 40 20 20 0
BROWNFIELD 95 69 91 67 97 / 20 40 30 30 0
CHILDRESS 96 69 88 69 96 / 20 60 30 40 10
SPUR 96 71 88 70 97 / 20 50 30 30 10
ASPERMONT 98 73 91 71 99 / 20 50 30 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
435
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO WIND DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. TSTMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT
THEY MAY GRAZE KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. OUT WEST...LINE OF
DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES MOVING EAST. IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...WOULD REACH KLBB AROUND 08Z. COMPLEX OF TSTMS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT BOTH
TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FINALLY...CONDITIONAL THREAT
EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND THREATEN FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
MOVING AT A MODERATE PACE. CORFIDI VECTORS PROG BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BROADEN OVER THE ENTIRE
FA AND EXTEND BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTING INITIATION
FARTHER WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDING MUCH COMPLICATION
TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST NEAR ANY
REMAINING BOUNDARY. JDV
LONG TERM...
AGAIN... CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE MINIMAL... AS THE NEXT
THREE DAYS REMAIN POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. BY MONDAY
EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE AREA...
POTENTIALLY ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST A BIT LATER. MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO... AND
PROPAGATE RATHER QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN
AMPLE MOISTURE... STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG BY PEAK
HEATING...AND SHOULD REACH 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. IN ADDITION...
MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ESE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE UPDRAFTS...
WITH VALUES REACHING PERHAPS UP TO 40-50 KTS. STORMS COMING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION... WHILE THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVERS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MAY INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING.
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A SIMILAR SITUATION... ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE
FIELDS RECOVER FOLLOWING POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LASTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SWEEPING MCS COULD DRIVE THE SURFACE
FRONT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH... ALTHOUGH MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH AN OVERALL DIFFUSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. ONCE AGAIN... MODERATE WNW FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ALONG THE RIM OF A FLAT RIDGE... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN IT. ASSUMING ADEQUATE RECOVERY...A
FAVORABLE SETUP MAY EXIST FOR YET ANOTHER FAST-MOVING MCS TO ROLL
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS... WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 89 65 84 64 / 20 30 60 30 40
TULIA 69 89 66 86 69 / 20 30 50 30 40
PLAINVIEW 68 90 68 84 69 / 20 30 60 30 40
LEVELLAND 70 93 67 95 68 / 30 30 60 30 30
LUBBOCK 72 94 69 90 69 / 20 30 60 30 30
DENVER CITY 67 93 68 97 68 / 30 30 50 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 93 69 96 69 / 30 30 50 30 30
CHILDRESS 72 96 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 30 30
SPUR 72 96 71 91 71 / 20 30 60 30 30
ASPERMONT 74 99 74 95 73 / 20 30 50 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
835
FXUS64 KLUB 162327
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING AND TSTMS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS. STORMS HAVE FIRED ABOUT 50 NM W
KCDS BUT STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
SOUTHWARD DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY BEGIN TO ROTATE. METAR
DATA IS NOT FLOWING FROM EITHER TAF SITE THUS THE AMD NOT SKED AT
KCDS. HOWEVER...WE ARE ABLE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AT KLBB VIA
WEBCAM MORE READILY. ASIDE FROM THAT...MAY SEE A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND THREATEN FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
MOVING AT A MODERATE PACE. CORFIDI VECTORS PROG BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BROADEN OVER THE ENTIRE
FA AND EXTEND BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTING INITIATION
FARTHER WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDING MUCH COMPLICATION
TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST NEAR ANY
REMAINING BOUNDARY. JDV
LONG TERM...
AGAIN... CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE MINIMAL... AS THE NEXT
THREE DAYS REMAIN POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. BY MONDAY
EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE AREA...
POTENTIALLY ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST A BIT LATER. MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO... AND
PROPAGATE RATHER QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN
AMPLE MOISTURE... STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG BY PEAK
HEATING...AND SHOULD REACH 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. IN ADDITION...
MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ESE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE UPDRAFTS...
WITH VALUES REACHING PERHAPS UP TO 40-50 KTS. STORMS COMING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION... WHILE THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVERS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MAY INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING.
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A SIMILAR SITUATION... ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE
FIELDS RECOVER FOLLOWING POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LASTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SWEEPING MCS COULD DRIVE THE SURFACE
FRONT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH... ALTHOUGH MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH AN OVERALL DIFFUSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. ONCE AGAIN... MODERATE WNW FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ALONG THE RIM OF A FLAT RIDGE... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN IT. ASSUMING ADEQUATE RECOVERY...A
FAVORABLE SETUP MAY EXIST FOR YET ANOTHER FAST-MOVING MCS TO ROLL
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS... WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 89 65 84 64 / 30 30 60 30 40
TULIA 69 89 66 86 69 / 30 30 50 30 40
PLAINVIEW 68 90 68 84 69 / 30 30 60 30 40
LEVELLAND 70 93 67 95 68 / 40 30 60 30 30
LUBBOCK 72 94 69 90 69 / 40 30 60 30 30
DENVER CITY 67 93 68 97 68 / 40 30 50 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 93 69 96 69 / 40 30 50 30 30
CHILDRESS 72 96 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 30 30
SPUR 72 96 71 91 71 / 30 30 60 30 30
ASPERMONT 74 99 74 95 73 / 30 30 50 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
831
FXUS64 KLUB 161955
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND THREATEN FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
MOVING AT A MODERATE PACE. CORFIDI VECTORS PROG BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL BROADEN OVER THE ENTIRE
FA AND EXTEND BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUGGESTING INITIATION
FARTHER WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDING MUCH COMPLICATION
TO THE FORECAST WILL BE ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST NEAR ANY
REMAINING BOUNDARY. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
AGAIN... CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE MINIMAL... AS THE NEXT
THREE DAYS REMAIN POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. BY MONDAY
EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE AREA...
POTENTIALLY ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST A BIT LATER. MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO... AND
PROPAGATE RATHER QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN
AMPLE MOISTURE... STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG BY PEAK
HEATING...AND SHOULD REACH 2000+ J/KG OF CAPE. IN ADDITION...
MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ESE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR SEVERE UPDRAFTS...
WITH VALUES REACHING PERHAPS UP TO 40-50 KTS. STORMS COMING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION... WHILE THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVERS...HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MAY INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
FLOODING.
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A SIMILAR SITUATION... ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE
FIELDS RECOVER FOLLOWING POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LASTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SWEEPING MCS COULD DRIVE THE SURFACE
FRONT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH... ALTHOUGH MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH AN OVERALL DIFFUSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF. ONCE AGAIN... MODERATE WNW FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA ALONG THE RIM OF A FLAT RIDGE... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN IT. ASSUMING ADEQUATE RECOVERY...A
FAVORABLE SETUP MAY EXIST FOR YET ANOTHER FAST-MOVING MCS TO ROLL
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL PUT AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS... WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 89 65 84 64 / 30 30 60 30 40
TULIA 69 89 66 86 69 / 30 30 50 30 40
PLAINVIEW 68 90 68 84 69 / 30 30 60 30 40
LEVELLAND 70 93 67 95 68 / 40 30 60 30 30
LUBBOCK 72 94 69 90 69 / 40 30 60 30 30
DENVER CITY 67 93 68 97 68 / 40 30 50 20 20
BROWNFIELD 69 93 69 96 69 / 40 30 50 30 30
CHILDRESS 72 96 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 30 30
SPUR 72 96 71 91 71 / 30 30 60 30 30
ASPERMONT 74 99 74 95 73 / 30 30 50 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/16
849
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT
TIMING OF THIS WAVE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WEST TEXAS. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
AROUND 70KT WAS MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND SPREADING OVER WEST
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THIS JET
WITH MORE FAVORABLE AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS NORTH.
TWO AREAS MAY BE FAVORED FOR INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WAS FORMING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. CONVERGENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
STRONG ALONG THIS FIRST POSSIBLE AREA OF INITIATION. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT
OVER THE FA IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH BETTER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF HAIL WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
EAST. THIS MORNING BEGAN VERY JUICY AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME MID
TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS STILL HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE INSTABILITY VALUES
WILL GREATLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEL PROGS DEPICTING
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. AREAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT REMAINING CAPPED.
A VERY RICH LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THIS
AFTERNOON CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FA. GIVEN YESTERDAYS TREND OF
STORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE LOCATION OF THE THETA-E AXIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS.
A SECOND AREA OF INITIATION MAY BE LOCATED IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY BE EXPECTED OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE
DISCUSSED ABOVE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
BECOMING SEVERE. CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROLONGED THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT.
JDV
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.
LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.
TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 30 50 30
TULIA 93 68 88 64 82 / 30 30 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 66 85 / 30 30 30 50 30
LEVELLAND 92 69 92 66 89 / 40 40 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 93 67 89 / 40 40 30 50 30
DENVER CITY 93 67 92 66 92 / 40 40 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 94 69 92 67 91 / 40 40 30 50 30
CHILDRESS 96 72 94 70 88 / 50 50 30 50 30
SPUR 96 73 95 69 88 / 30 30 30 50 30
ASPERMONT 97 75 98 73 90 / 30 30 30 50 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
606
FXUS64 KLUB 161255 RRA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE
AFTN TO AOA 15 KTS. MODELS INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTN AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND COULD THEREFORE AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. FURTHERMORE...MODELS
ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SSE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AND THUS POSSIBLY NEARING KCDS TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 MENTION COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTN AT KLBB..AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING AT KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.
LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.
TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 30 50 30
TULIA 93 68 88 64 82 / 20 30 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 66 85 / 20 30 30 50 30
LEVELLAND 92 69 92 66 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 93 67 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
DENVER CITY 93 67 92 66 92 / 20 30 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 94 69 92 67 91 / 20 30 30 50 30
CHILDRESS 96 72 94 70 88 / 20 30 30 50 30
SPUR 96 73 95 69 88 / 20 20 30 50 30
ASPERMONT 97 75 98 73 90 / 10 20 30 50 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
020
FXUS64 KLUB 161255
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE
AFTN TO AOA 15 KTS. MODELS INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTN AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND COULD THEREFORE AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. FURTHERMORE...MODELS
ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SSE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AND THUS POSSIBLY NEARING KCDS TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 MENTION COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTN AT KLBB..AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING AT KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.
LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.
TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 30 50 30
TULIA 93 68 88 64 82 / 20 30 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 66 85 / 20 30 30 50 30
LEVELLAND 92 69 92 66 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 93 67 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
DENVER CITY 93 67 92 66 92 / 20 30 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 94 69 92 67 91 / 20 30 30 50 30
CHILDRESS 96 72 94 70 88 / 20 30 30 50 30
SPUR 96 73 95 69 88 / 20 20 30 50 30
ASPERMONT 97 75 98 73 90 / 10 20 30 50 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
568
FXUS64 KLUB 161121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE
AFTN TO AOA 15 KTS. MODELS INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTN AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AND COULD THEREFORE AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. FURTHERMORE...MODELS
ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING SSE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND THUS POSSIBLY NEARING KCDS TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 MENTION COMMENCING LATE THIS AFTN AT KLBB..AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING AT KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.
LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.
TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 30 50 30
TULIA 93 68 88 64 82 / 20 30 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 66 85 / 20 30 30 50 30
LEVELLAND 92 69 92 66 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 93 67 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
DENVER CITY 93 67 92 66 92 / 20 30 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 94 69 92 67 91 / 20 30 30 50 30
CHILDRESS 96 72 94 70 88 / 20 30 30 50 30
SPUR 96 73 95 69 88 / 20 20 30 50 30
ASPERMONT 97 75 98 73 90 / 10 20 30 50 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
526
FXUS64 KLUB 160727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
227 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO /WHERE THE CENTER IS
LOCATED/ TO NEAR THE NW PACIFIC CONUS HAS RESULTED IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION LATER THIS EVENING WILL VEER FLOW CLOSE
TO NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED
SHORTLY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...LIGHT SERLY SFC WINDS AND A 20-30 KT
LLJ ENSUED EARLY THIS MORNING ...THUS CAUSING MOIST LOW LEVELS TO
PERSIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RADAR ANALYSIS DISPLAYED A SMALL COMPLEX
OF STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THANKS IN
PART TO AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP HAS COMMENCED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD PERIPHERY OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH
COULD NEAR THE SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BEFORE IT FINALLY DWINDLES
LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTN...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ENDURE AND THEREFORE PROGGED PWATS
AOA 1.00 INCH WILL EXIST. THE NEARBY UA RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK
IN HEIGHT FIELDS AND HENCE...TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM
/MID TO UPPER 90S/. A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CI. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...FLOW ALOFT VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE NW IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE THIS IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR NEW MEXICO STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF IMPACTING THE CWA. WITH THE BEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWFA /ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND THE WNW FLOW ALOFT/...IT IS NO WONDER
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 2.0 KJ/KG OF MID-LEVEL
CAPE...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MECHANISM...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. FORECAST
SOLUTIONS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SW KANSAS...POSSIBLY BRUSHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND THE FAR SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH 1.00 INCH PWATS...ONE WOULD
THINK THAT MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PLAUSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SPEEDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AND THEREFORE THE
OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WEAK...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH WEST TO WNW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE FCST AREA
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST STORMS ROLLING IN FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY ALSO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. CHC
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK FINE WITH A NUDGE UPWARDS FOR POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FURTHER.
TRANSITION THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SRN AND CNTL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE STORMS REMAIN ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF CNTL NM FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION PARTICULARLY TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 65 88 63 86 / 30 30 30 50 30
TULIA 93 68 88 64 82 / 20 30 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 66 85 / 20 30 30 50 30
LEVELLAND 92 69 92 66 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 93 67 89 / 20 30 30 50 30
DENVER CITY 93 67 92 66 92 / 20 30 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 94 69 92 67 91 / 20 30 30 50 30
CHILDRESS 96 72 94 70 88 / 20 30 30 50 30
SPUR 96 73 95 69 88 / 20 20 30 50 30
ASPERMONT 97 75 98 73 90 / 10 20 30 50 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
411
FXUS64 KLUB 160441
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH THERE IS
PERHAPS A 5 PCT CHANCE OF MIST/STRATUS REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR
AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY--CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NM ON
SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT EITHER OR BOTH SITES DURING THE EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON TAKING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THIS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE
SHIFTING WINDS WILL SET UP SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF POTENTIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO WEST TEXAS.
MOISTURE IS STILL BACKED UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
WITH VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED
HERE...AN AREA OF ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INSTABILITY IS
FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE COUNTERACTING THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY/THETA-E AND NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION. IT WILL BRING IN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL UNDERGO A REDUCTION TONIGHT BUT AGAIN
INCREASE TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. DESPITE FAVORABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER THE FA AND WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FA. JDV
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS EDITION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST... AS THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
WITH AN EXPECTED LULL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FLAT RIDGING WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
ESE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUNDAY EVENING...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT OF TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR... ALTHOUGH THE SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR MONDAY... THERE REMAINS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER SOLUTION... BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STALLING IT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
MEANWHILE... THE NAM STUBBORNLY KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS AS IT
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN OUTFLOW. AS THIS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH... MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHOUGH THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL A BIT FAR AWAY TO NAIL
DOWN WITH ANY REAL CERTAINTY. IN ANY CASE... STRONG INSTABILITY TO
2000+ J/KG OF CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY 40-45 KTS OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED SURFACE
WINDS...AND MAY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF MONDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... HOWEVER
CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BEYOND TUESDAY... RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY
PUT AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST JUST ENOUGH TO PLACE THE AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BUMP UP A NOTCH AS WELL
DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE... ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 92 64 89 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
TULIA 65 91 69 87 64 / 10 20 30 30 40
PLAINVIEW 67 91 71 89 65 / 10 20 30 30 40
LEVELLAND 67 92 70 94 65 / 10 20 30 40 40
LUBBOCK 69 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 30 30 40
DENVER CITY 66 92 69 97 66 / 10 20 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 67 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 20 30 40
CHILDRESS 69 96 71 93 69 / 10 20 30 30 30
SPUR 69 95 73 97 70 / 10 20 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 71 97 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
226
FXUS64 KLUB 152336
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TSTMS
ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO WHICH COULD AFFECT KLBB. RIDGE OF RICHER
THETA-E AIR EXISTS BETWEEN THAT TERMINAL AND THE STORMS WHICH
COULD PROLONG THEIR USEFUL LIFE. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
REACHING KLBB PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION ATTM. WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP AT KLBB AROUND SUNRISE BUT GIVEN TREND AFTER EARLY
THIS MORNING...NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS OCCURRING AND SO WILL
HANDLE WITH FEW MENTION FOR NOW. IFR IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT
PROBABLE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...TSTMS MAY IMPACT KCDS SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON TAKING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THIS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE
SHIFTING WINDS WILL SET UP SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF POTENTIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO WEST TEXAS.
MOISTURE IS STILL BACKED UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
WITH VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED
HERE...AN AREA OF ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INSTABILITY IS
FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE COUNTERACTING THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY/THETA-E AND NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION. IT WILL BRING IN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL UNDERGO A REDUCTION TONIGHT BUT AGAIN
INCREASE TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. DESPITE FAVORABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER THE FA AND WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FA. JDV
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS EDITION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST... AS THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
WITH AN EXPECTED LULL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FLAT RIDGING WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
ESE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUNDAY EVENING...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT OF TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR... ALTHOUGH THE SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR MONDAY... THERE REMAINS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER SOLUTION... BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STALLING IT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
MEANWHILE... THE NAM STUBBORNLY KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS AS IT
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN OUTFLOW. AS THIS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH... MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHOUGH THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL A BIT FAR AWAY TO NAIL
DOWN WITH ANY REAL CERTAINTY. IN ANY CASE... STRONG INSTABILITY TO
2000+ J/KG OF CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY 40-45 KTS OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED SURFACE
WINDS...AND MAY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF MONDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... HOWEVER
CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BEYOND TUESDAY... RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY
PUT AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST JUST ENOUGH TO PLACE THE AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BUMP UP A NOTCH AS WELL
DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE... ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 92 64 89 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
TULIA 65 91 69 87 64 / 10 20 30 30 40
PLAINVIEW 67 91 71 89 65 / 10 20 30 30 40
LEVELLAND 67 92 70 94 65 / 10 20 30 40 40
LUBBOCK 69 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 30 30 40
DENVER CITY 66 92 69 97 66 / 10 20 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 67 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 20 30 40
CHILDRESS 69 96 71 93 69 / 10 20 30 30 30
SPUR 69 95 73 97 70 / 10 20 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 71 97 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
135
FXUS64 KLUB 152014
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON TAKING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THIS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE
SHIFTING WINDS WILL SET UP SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF POTENTIAL
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO WEST TEXAS.
MOISTURE IS STILL BACKED UP TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
WITH VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE LOCATED
HERE...AN AREA OF ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INSTABILITY IS
FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE COUNTERACTING THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY/THETA-E AND NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION. IT WILL BRING IN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNGLIDE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL UNDERGO A REDUCTION TONIGHT BUT AGAIN
INCREASE TOMORROW TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. DESPITE FAVORABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER THE FA AND WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FA. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS EDITION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST... AS THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
WITH AN EXPECTED LULL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FLAT RIDGING WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
ESE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUNDAY EVENING...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT OF TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR... ALTHOUGH THE SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A BIT BETTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR MONDAY... THERE REMAINS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FASTER SOLUTION... BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STALLING IT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
MEANWHILE... THE NAM STUBBORNLY KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS AS IT
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN OUTFLOW. AS THIS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH... MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHOUGH THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL A BIT FAR AWAY TO NAIL
DOWN WITH ANY REAL CERTAINTY. IN ANY CASE... STRONG INSTABILITY TO
2000+ J/KG OF CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY 40-45 KTS OF
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED SURFACE
WINDS...AND MAY LEAD TO YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF MONDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... HOWEVER
CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BEYOND TUESDAY... RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION AND LIKELY
PUT AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY
THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST JUST ENOUGH TO PLACE THE AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BUMP UP A NOTCH AS WELL
DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE... ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT TOO MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 92 64 89 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
TULIA 65 91 69 87 64 / 10 20 30 30 40
PLAINVIEW 67 91 71 89 65 / 10 20 30 30 40
LEVELLAND 67 92 70 94 65 / 10 20 30 40 40
LUBBOCK 69 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 30 30 40
DENVER CITY 66 92 69 97 66 / 10 20 20 40 40
BROWNFIELD 67 94 71 94 66 / 10 20 20 30 40
CHILDRESS 69 96 71 93 69 / 10 20 30 30 30
SPUR 69 95 73 97 70 / 10 20 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 71 97 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/16
432
FXUS64 KLUB 151737
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLBB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH
EITHER TAF SITE. LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE....ROLLING PLAINS AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NNE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS
OF COURSE COURTESY OF THE UA WEAKNESS THAT HAS TREKKED NNE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...THUS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...HAVE
TRANSLATED SSE FROM THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES AS
NOTED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES A FEW HOURS AGO AT DORA NEW
MEXICO AND MORTON /A QUICK THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN ONE HOUR/.
HOWEVER...THIS LINE HAS SINCE LOST ITS STRENGTH AND LINEARITY LOOK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE UA WEAKNESS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY THUS SHIFTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...TO FINALLY EAST OF THE FA BY
16/00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHT IN GENERALLY BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH/ IF TRAINING OCCURS. AS THE WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...WITH THE CENTER NOTED ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO. AS
SUCH...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS A WARMER DAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S/...AND THEREFORE IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SAID CENTER OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE /AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH/...WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE TO US BECAUSE
ADEQUATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO NEAR/MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TERRAIN STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO THE SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST. AT THE
VERY LEAST SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN NM. CHC POPS FOR EACH OF THOSE SCENARIOS IS
WARRANTED.
CHANGE COMES MIDWEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE SW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TO THE CNTL PLAINS RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NM AND EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD MOVING
THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
UNDER THIS REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 65 87 64 / 20 20 30 30 40
TULIA 66 90 66 88 65 / 10 10 30 30 30
PLAINVIEW 67 91 67 90 67 / 10 10 30 30 40
LEVELLAND 67 91 67 89 69 / 10 10 20 30 30
LUBBOCK 69 93 70 92 69 / 10 10 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 67 92 66 93 69 / 10 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 67 94 67 91 70 / 10 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 70 96 72 95 69 / 10 10 30 30 30
SPUR 69 95 71 94 71 / 10 10 20 30 30
ASPERMONT 72 97 73 95 71 / 10 10 20 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
121
FXUS64 KLUB 151121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
IS ANTICIPATED TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN HOURS /15-17 KTS/.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO NEAR KCDS...ALTHOUGH
LATEST RADAR SIGNATURE INDICATED A WANING TREND.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WELL SOUTH OF KCDS
AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION FOR KCDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTN ATTM...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS EVENING...PRECIP
WILL SHIFT EAST OF KCDS AND SRLY WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT TO AOA
10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE....ROLLING PLAINS AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NNE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS
OF COURSE COURTESY OF THE UA WEAKNESS THAT HAS TREKKED NNE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...THUS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...HAVE
TRANSLATED SSE FROM THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES AS
NOTED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES A FEW HOURS AGO AT DORA NEW
MEXICO AND MORTON /A QUICK THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN ONE HOUR/.
HOWEVER...THIS LINE HAS SINCE LOST ITS STRENGTH AND LINEARITY LOOK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE UA WEAKNESS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY THUS SHIFTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...TO FINALLY EAST OF THE FA BY
16/00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHT IN GENERALLY BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH/ IF TRAINING OCCURS. AS THE WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...WITH THE CENTER NOTED ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO. AS
SUCH...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS A WARMER DAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S/...AND THEREFORE IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SAID CENTER OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE /AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH/...WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE TO US BECAUSE
ADEQUATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO NEAR/MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TERRAIN STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO THE SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST. AT THE
VERY LEAST SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN NM. CHC POPS FOR EACH OF THOSE SCENARIOS IS
WARRANTED.
CHANGE COMES MIDWEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE SW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TO THE CNTL PLAINS RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NM AND EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD MOVING
THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
UNDER THIS REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 90 65 91 65 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TULIA 89 67 94 68 91 / 20 10 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 89 68 92 68 89 / 20 10 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 90 68 91 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 89 69 95 70 93 / 20 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 91 69 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 90 69 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 91 70 97 71 96 / 40 10 20 20 30
SPUR 87 69 95 71 95 / 30 10 20 20 20
ASPERMONT 90 73 96 73 98 / 40 10 20 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
605
FXUS64 KLUB 150740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE....ROLLING PLAINS AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NNE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS
OF COURSE COURTESY OF THE UA WEAKNESS THAT HAS TREKKED NNE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...THUS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...HAVE
TRANSLATED SSE FROM THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES AS
NOTED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES A FEW HOURS AGO AT DORA NEW
MEXICO AND MORTON /A QUICK THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN ONE HOUR/.
HOWEVER...THIS LINE HAS SINCE LOST ITS STRENGTH AND LINEARITY LOOK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE UA WEAKNESS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY THUS SHIFTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...TO FINALLY EAST OF THE FA BY
16/00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHT IN GENERALLY BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH/ IF TRAINING OCCURS. AS THE WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...WITH THE CENTER NOTED ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO. AS
SUCH...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS A WARMER DAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S/...AND THEREFORE IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SAID CENTER OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE /AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH/...WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE TO US BECAUSE
ADEQUATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO NEAR/MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TERRAIN STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO THE SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST. AT THE
VERY LEAST SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN NM. CHC POPS FOR EACH OF THOSE SCENARIOS IS
WARRANTED.
CHANGE COMES MIDWEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE SW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TO THE CNTL PLAINS RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NM AND EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD MOVING
THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
UNDER THIS REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 89 64 91 65 87 / 10 20 20 30 30
TULIA 88 66 90 66 88 / 20 10 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 88 67 91 67 90 / 20 10 10 30 30
LEVELLAND 88 67 91 67 89 / 10 10 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 89 69 93 70 92 / 20 10 10 20 30
DENVER CITY 89 67 92 66 93 / 10 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 88 67 94 67 91 / 10 10 10 20 30
CHILDRESS 90 70 96 72 95 / 30 10 10 30 30
SPUR 87 69 95 71 94 / 30 10 10 20 30
ASPERMONT 91 72 97 73 95 / 30 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
884
FXUS64 KLUB 150457
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LEFT VCSH IN AT
BOTH SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF KLBB. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDUCE
CEILINGS TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. KCDS WILL
SEE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR VCSH INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SOME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOST LIKELY DUE TO MINOR SURFACE HEATING.
UNDERNEATH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN INTENSE BUT
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...HEIGHT
FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A QUICK SHUT DOWN TO THE PRECIPITATION. JDV
LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE MID-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA...AND WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 00Z.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF WEAK/FLAT RIDGING...WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK... A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL TRAVERSE THE TX PANHANDLE AND GLANCE THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...
THIS SUBTLE FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY BULLISH WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY... AND THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TSRA
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT... MOISTURE WILL BE
RICH WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND PW IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES... AND
WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
VEER A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND LIKELY PRECLUDE
RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY...AND LIKELY LONGER. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY... WITH PERHAPS A FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN
IT. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW THURSDAY AND BEYOND... BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 86 63 90 65 91 / 20 20 10 10 10
TULIA 86 63 89 67 94 / 20 30 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 85 65 89 68 92 / 40 40 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 83 66 90 68 91 / 50 40 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 83 68 90 69 94 / 50 50 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 82 66 91 69 93 / 60 50 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 83 66 90 69 95 / 60 50 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 71 91 70 97 / 20 50 40 10 20
SPUR 87 69 87 69 95 / 40 60 30 10 20
ASPERMONT 91 72 90 73 96 / 50 70 40 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
528
FXUS64 KLUB 142356
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
656 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHIFT EAST TOWARD KCDS AND AWAY FROM KLBB TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...STRATUS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE KLBB TERMINAL AND
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. UNTIL THEN...WILL
KEEP PREVAILING VCSH FOR BOTH SITES WITH TEMPO -SHRA AT KLBB THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED SO WILL REFRAIN
FROM INSERTING CB OR TSRA AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO
BREAK UP WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SOME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOST LIKELY DUE TO MINOR SURFACE HEATING.
UNDERNEATH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN INTENSE BUT
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...HEIGHT
FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A QUICK SHUT DOWN TO THE PRECIPITATION. JDV
LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE MID-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA...AND WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 00Z.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF WEAK/FLAT RIDGING...WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK... A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL TRAVERSE THE TX PANHANDLE AND GLANCE THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...
THIS SUBTLE FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY BULLISH WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY... AND THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TSRA
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT... MOISTURE WILL BE
RICH WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND PW IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES... AND
WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
VEER A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND LIKELY PRECLUDE
RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY...AND LIKELY LONGER. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY... WITH PERHAPS A FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN
IT. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW THURSDAY AND BEYOND... BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 90 65 91 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
TULIA 63 89 67 94 68 / 30 20 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 65 89 68 92 68 / 40 20 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 90 68 91 70 / 40 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 90 69 94 70 / 50 20 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 66 91 69 93 70 / 50 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 66 90 69 95 71 / 50 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 91 70 97 71 / 50 40 10 20 20
SPUR 69 87 69 95 71 / 60 30 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 72 90 73 96 73 / 70 40 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
598
FXUS64 KLUB 142006
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...
NO ADDITIONAL MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED SOME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOST LIKELY DUE TO MINOR SURFACE HEATING.
UNDERNEATH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN INTENSE BUT
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY HAS KEPT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST...HEIGHT
FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HEIGHT RISES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A QUICK SHUT DOWN TO THE PRECIPITATION. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE MID-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA...AND WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 00Z.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF WEAK/FLAT RIDGING...WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK... A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WNW FLOW APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL TRAVERSE THE TX PANHANDLE AND GLANCE THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...
THIS SUBTLE FORCING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY BULLISH WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY... AND THUS OPTED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TSRA
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT BETTER ON MONDAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT... MOISTURE WILL BE
RICH WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND PW IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES... AND
WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO
VEER A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY...RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND LIKELY PRECLUDE
RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY...AND LIKELY LONGER. BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY... WITH PERHAPS A FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN
IT. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW THURSDAY AND BEYOND... BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS AT
LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 90 65 91 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
TULIA 63 89 67 94 68 / 30 20 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 65 89 68 92 68 / 40 20 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 90 68 91 70 / 40 10 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 68 90 69 94 70 / 50 20 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 66 91 69 93 70 / 50 10 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 66 90 69 95 71 / 50 10 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 71 91 70 97 71 / 50 40 10 20 20
SPUR 69 87 69 95 71 / 60 30 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 72 90 73 96 73 / 70 40 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/16
172
FXUS64 KLUB 141744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBB
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. WILL NOT PLACE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAF DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE KCDS TERMINAL WHILE ENDING
AT KLBB AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
UPDATE...
AFTER EXTENSIVE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. THESE STORMS PRODUCED NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS WARM CORE LOW
IS STILL HIKING IN THE BIG BEND BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTH
AND EASTWARD JOG LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LIKELY
ALTHOUGH IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL LACKING WITH ONLY THE MID LEVEL LOW
TO LIFT THE MOIST AIR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL STREAMING INTO
THE AREA WITH THETA-E VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AREA WIDE WITH IDENTICAL DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM. THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMAF IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH ANOMALIES CLOSE
TO 200 PERCENT. TOTAL INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1500
J/KG WITH VERY LOW NCAPES. ORDINARILY THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK
UPDRAFTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS
WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORESEEN IN MODELS. MODEL HODOGRAPHS BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKE AN
ATROCIOUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS RUNNING GAME...IT GOES NO WHERE.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF UA LOWS DOMINATING
THE NW PACIFIC AND NERN CONUS...WITH UA RIDING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW PACIFIC LOW WAS TREKKING ENE
TOWARDS MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
THAT WAS ONCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS NOW MOVED TO ACROSS
FAR ERN TEXAS/SERN OKLAHOMA/NRN LOUISIANA....AND MAKING WAY FOR AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE.
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE N NEWRD FROM NERN
MEXICO/FAR SWRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 20-30 KT LLJ COMBINED WITH THE
NEARING SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOURAGED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S PER 07Z METARS...AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND MOVED ACROSS TERRY AND YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
THIS MORNING /THE PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NEW MEXICO/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THE EMBEDDED WEAKNESS. AS
SUCH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING /PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.20-1.60 INCHES/ INITIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING... TO ACROSS THE ERN/NERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /20-35 KTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER
PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES
/THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT ENE...PROGGED
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS FOG WHERE ITS
RAIN-FREE/.
RAINFALL AND ANTICIPATED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE COOLER
TEMPS TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/...WITH MILD YET
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS /LOWER TO UPPER 60S/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ONE LAST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE AFTN...AND FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT.
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP GREATLY
AFFECTS POPS. 00Z MODEL RUNS WANT TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SHOULD FUTURE RUNS PUSH IT FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WOULD PROBABLY SEE RAIN CHANCES GO WITH IT. EVEN IF THAT
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS...MAY SEE STORMS ROLL OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN NM WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST UPSLOPE
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THAT SCENARIO
AGAIN AS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IT WILL STILL BE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND FAIRLY MOIST. ATTM THAT COULD BE THE LAST
OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK AS THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN. AS IT DOES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INCREASE AS WELL BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AFTER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SELY FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 90 65 94 64 / 20 20 10 10 10
TULIA 65 89 68 94 66 / 30 30 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 65 89 68 95 67 / 40 20 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 66 90 68 95 69 / 40 20 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 67 90 69 95 69 / 50 20 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 66 91 68 94 68 / 40 20 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 66 90 69 95 69 / 50 20 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 69 90 71 97 73 / 50 40 10 10 10
SPUR 68 88 70 96 71 / 60 30 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 70 90 71 96 73 / 60 40 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
828
FXUS64 KLUB 141621
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.UPDATE...
AFTER EXTENSIVE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. THESE STORMS PRODUCED NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS WARM CORE LOW
IS STILL HIKING IN THE BIG BEND BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTH
AND EASTWARD JOG LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LIKELY
ALTHOUGH IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL LACKING WITH ONLY THE MID LEVEL LOW
TO LIFT THE MOIST AIR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL STREAMING INTO
THE AREA WITH THETA-E VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AREA WIDE WITH IDENTICAL DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM. THE 12Z RAOB FROM KMAF IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PEAK HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH ANOMALIES CLOSE
TO 200 PERCENT. TOTAL INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1500
J/KG WITH VERY LOW NCAPES. ORDINARILY THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAK
UPDRAFTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS
WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ARE ALSO WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORESEEN IN MODELS. MODEL HODOGRAPHS BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKE AN
ATROCIOUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS RUNNING GAME...IT GOES NO WHERE.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF UA LOWS DOMINATING
THE NW PACIFIC AND NERN CONUS...WITH UA RIDING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW PACIFIC LOW WAS TREKKING ENE
TOWARDS MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
THAT WAS ONCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS NOW MOVED TO ACROSS
FAR ERN TEXAS/SERN OKLAHOMA/NRN LOUISIANA....AND MAKING WAY FOR AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE.
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE N NEWRD FROM NERN
MEXICO/FAR SWRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 20-30 KT LLJ COMBINED WITH THE
NEARING SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOURAGED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S PER 07Z METARS...AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND MOVED ACROSS TERRY AND YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
THIS MORNING /THE PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NEW MEXICO/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THE EMBEDDED WEAKNESS. AS
SUCH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING /PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.20-1.60 INCHES/ INITIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING... TO ACROSS THE ERN/NERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /20-35 KTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER
PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES
/THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT ENE...PROGGED
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS FOG WHERE ITS
RAIN-FREE/.
RAINFALL AND ANTICIPATED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE COOLER
TEMPS TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/...WITH MILD YET
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS /LOWER TO UPPER 60S/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ONE LAST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE AFTN...AND FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT.
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP GREATLY
AFFECTS POPS. 00Z MODEL RUNS WANT TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SHOULD FUTURE RUNS PUSH IT FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WOULD PROBABLY SEE RAIN CHANCES GO WITH IT. EVEN IF THAT
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS...MAY SEE STORMS ROLL OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN NM WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST UPSLOPE
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THAT SCENARIO
AGAIN AS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IT WILL STILL BE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND FAIRLY MOIST. ATTM THAT COULD BE THE LAST
OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK AS THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN. AS IT DOES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INCREASE AS WELL BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AFTER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SELY FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 86 63 90 65 94 / 20 20 20 10 10
TULIA 86 65 89 68 94 / 20 30 30 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 65 89 68 95 / 40 40 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 83 66 90 68 95 / 50 40 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 83 67 90 69 95 / 50 50 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 82 66 91 68 94 / 60 40 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 83 66 90 69 95 / 60 50 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 69 90 71 97 / 20 50 40 10 10
SPUR 87 68 88 70 96 / 40 60 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 91 70 90 71 96 / 50 60 40 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
732
FXUS64 KLUB 141120
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SRLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS
AFTN /14-16 KTS/. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE NNE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY -TSRA AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. KLBB WILL BE
AFFECTED THIS AFTN-EARLY EVENING WHERE THEREAFTER PRECIP WILL
AFFECT KCDS. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB HENCE A PREVAILING
MENTION...BUT STILL THOUGHT INSERTING A PROB30 AT KCDS APPEARS
VALID. RAINFALL MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES PARTICULARLY
AT KLBB...WHILST VRB WINDS ENSUE AT KCDS THIS EVENING.
FURTHERMORE...FEW-SCT MVFR CLOUD DECKS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF UA LOWS DOMINATING
THE NW PACIFIC AND NERN CONUS...WITH UA RIDING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW PACIFIC LOW WAS TREKKING ENE
TOWARDS MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
THAT WAS ONCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS NOW MOVED TO ACROSS
FAR ERN TEXAS/SERN OKLAHOMA/NRN LOUISIANA....AND MAKING WAY FOR AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE.
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE N NEWRD FROM NERN
MEXICO/FAR SWRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 20-30 KT LLJ COMBINED WITH THE
NEARING SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOURAGED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S PER 07Z METARS...AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND MOVED ACROSS TERRY AND YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
THIS MORNING /THE PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NEW MEXICO/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THE EMBEDDED WEAKNESS. AS
SUCH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING /PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.20-1.60 INCHES/ INITIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING... TO ACROSS THE ERN/NERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /20-35 KTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER
PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES
/THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT ENE...PROGGED
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS FOG WHERE ITS
RAIN-FREE/.
RAINFALL AND ANTICIPATED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE COOLER
TEMPS TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/...WITH MILD YET
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS /LOWER TO UPPER 60S/.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ONE LAST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE AFTN...AND FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVMENT.
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP GREATLY
AFFECTS POPS. 00Z MODEL RUNS WANT TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SHOULD FUTURE RUNS PUSH IT FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WOULD PROBABLY SEE RAIN CHANCES GO WITH IT. EVEN IF THAT
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS...MAY SEE STORMS ROLL OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN NM WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST UPSLOPE
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THAT SCENARIO
AGAIN AS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IT WILL STILL BE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND FAIRLY MOIST. ATTM THAT COULD BE THE LAST
OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK AS THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN. AS IT DOES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INCREASE AS WELL BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AFTER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SELY FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 86 63 90 65 94 / 20 20 20 10 10
TULIA 86 65 89 68 94 / 20 20 30 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 65 89 68 95 / 20 30 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 83 66 90 68 95 / 30 30 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 84 67 90 69 95 / 30 40 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 82 66 91 68 94 / 40 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 83 66 90 69 95 / 40 30 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 69 90 71 97 / 10 30 40 10 10
SPUR 87 68 88 70 96 / 20 40 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 91 70 90 71 96 / 10 50 40 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
658
FXUS64 KLUB 140744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
244 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING CONSISTED OF UA LOWS DOMINATING
THE NW PACIFIC AND NERN CONUS...WITH UA RIDING DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NW PACIFIC LOW WAS TREKKING ENE
TOWARDS MONTANA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS AIDING IN SHIFTING THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EAST WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
THAT WAS ONCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAS NOW MOVED TO ACROSS
FAR ERN TEXAS/SERN OKLAHOMA/NRN LOUISIANA....AND MAKING WAY FOR AN
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE.
THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE N NEWRD FROM NERN
MEXICO/FAR SWRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 20-30 KT LLJ COMBINED WITH THE
NEARING SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENCOURAGED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S PER 07Z METARS...AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND MOVED ACROSS TERRY AND YOAKUM COUNTIES LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
THIS MORNING /THE PRECIP WAS NOTED ACROSS SERN NEW MEXICO/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS ENVELOPED THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THE EMBEDDED WEAKNESS. AS
SUCH...PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING /PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.20-1.60 INCHES/ INITIALLY ACROSS THE SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING... TO ACROSS THE ERN/NERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /20-35 KTS/ WHICH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES
LESS THAN 700 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DOES NOT
SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE EARLIER
PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES
/THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SRN...CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES. AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT ENE...PROGGED
SOUNDINGS PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS /AND PERHAPS FOG WHERE ITS
RAIN-FREE/.
RAINFALL AND ANTICIPATED PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE COOLER
TEMPS TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/...WITH MILD YET
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS /LOWER TO UPPER 60S/.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT NOT BEFORE BRINGING ONE LAST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE AFTN...AND FAVORING THE ROLLING PLAINS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVMENT.
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP GREATLY
AFFECTS POPS. 00Z MODEL RUNS WANT TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SHOULD FUTURE RUNS PUSH IT FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WOULD PROBABLY SEE RAIN CHANCES GO WITH IT. EVEN IF THAT
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS...MAY SEE STORMS ROLL OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN NM WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST UPSLOPE
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING THAT SCENARIO
AGAIN AS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IT WILL STILL BE FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AND FAIRLY MOIST. ATTM THAT COULD BE THE LAST
OF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK AS THE FLAT RIDGE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN. AS IT DOES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
INCREASE AS WELL BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AFTER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND TUESDAY WITH
UPSLOPE SELY FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 86 63 90 65 94 / 20 20 20 10 10
TULIA 86 65 89 68 94 / 20 20 30 10 10
PLAINVIEW 85 65 89 68 95 / 20 30 20 10 10
LEVELLAND 83 66 90 68 95 / 30 30 20 10 10
LUBBOCK 83 67 90 69 95 / 30 40 20 10 10
DENVER CITY 82 66 91 68 94 / 40 30 20 10 10
BROWNFIELD 83 66 90 69 95 / 40 30 20 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 69 90 71 97 / 10 30 40 10 10
SPUR 87 68 88 70 96 / 20 40 30 10 10
ASPERMONT 91 70 90 71 96 / 10 50 40 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
348
FXUS64 KLUB 140452
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KLBB AND WILL MISS KCDS. NO MENTION OF GUSTS OR BLDU AFTER
06Z AS A RESULT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MAY SEE CEILINGS APPROACH
MVFR AT KLBB AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...BUT VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS PRIOR TO THEN. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH
BEGINNING MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO KLBB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALL THE WAY UP PAST
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
INTO TEXAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NNE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AT PRESENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY. ALL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MID DAY THEN BEGIN ENCROACHING PERHAPS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E MAXIMA AND MOVE
NWRD. WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5IN...AT LEAST SOME EFFECTIVE RAIN
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 6-10 EXA EV/G (TO 1.5KJ/KG)
SHOULD BE PRESENT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT ALONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR...MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTREMITY OF CONVECTIVE AREA ONLY UP AROUND 30 KTS
(0-6KM).
LONG TERM...
OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LESS CERTAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE LATEST GFS IS STILL A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEARLY THE ONLY LIFT THAT WILL BE GENERATED WILL BE
FROM THE 700-500MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE AT
250MB IT LOOKS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT
SATURDAY WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. THE SOUTH PLAINS STAND THE BEST
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HARMS HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS DURING THE MORNING.
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NIL WITH MODERATE AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY. AS MOIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY LOW NCAPES.
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ALSO NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WHAT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT WILL BE
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL...THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO
BE LESS LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MAKE AS STRONG RETURN TO
THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TO INVADE WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY
FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL STILL
BE FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 64 87 64 90 / 0 10 20 20 20
TULIA 96 66 88 66 89 / 0 0 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 95 67 89 66 89 / 0 0 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 93 65 87 67 90 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 70 87 68 89 / 0 10 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 92 65 86 66 92 / 0 20 40 40 20
BROWNFIELD 92 66 86 67 90 / 0 20 30 40 30
CHILDRESS 98 70 95 70 89 / 0 0 0 30 40
SPUR 94 70 91 69 89 / 0 10 20 30 40
ASPERMONT 96 73 94 72 89 / 0 10 10 30 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
996
FXUS64 KLUB 132323
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO KLBB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALL THE WAY UP PAST
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
INTO TEXAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NNE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AT PRESENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY. ALL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MID DAY THEN BEGIN ENCROACHING PERHAPS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E MAXIMA AND MOVE
NWRD. WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5IN...AT LEAST SOME EFFECTIVE RAIN
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 6-10 EXA EV/G (TO 1.5KJ/KG)
SHOULD BE PRESENT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT ALONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR...MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTREMITY OF CONVECTIVE AREA ONLY UP AROUND 30 KTS
(0-6KM).
LONG TERM...
OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LESS CERTAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE LATEST GFS IS STILL A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEARLY THE ONLY LIFT THAT WILL BE GENERATED WILL BE
FROM THE 700-500MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE AT
250MB IT LOOKS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT
SATURDAY WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. THE SOUTH PLAINS STAND THE BEST
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HARMS HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS DURING THE MORNING.
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NIL WITH MODERATE AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY. AS MOIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY LOW NCAPES.
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ALSO NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WHAT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT WILL BE
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL...THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO
BE LESS LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MAKE AS STRONG RETURN TO
THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TO INVADE WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY
FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL STILL
BE FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 87 64 90 66 / 10 20 20 20 10
TULIA 66 88 66 89 68 / 0 20 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 67 89 66 89 69 / 0 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 65 87 67 90 69 / 10 20 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 70 87 68 89 70 / 10 20 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 65 86 66 92 68 / 10 40 40 20 10
BROWNFIELD 66 86 67 90 69 / 10 30 40 30 10
CHILDRESS 70 95 70 89 72 / 0 0 30 40 10
SPUR 70 91 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 40 10
ASPERMONT 73 94 72 89 73 / 10 10 30 40 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
851
FXUS64 KLUB 132016
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALL THE WAY UP PAST
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
INTO TEXAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NNE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AT PRESENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY. ALL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MID DAY THEN BEGIN ENCROACHING PERHAPS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E MAXIMA AND MOVE
NWRD. WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5IN...AT LEAST SOME EFFECTIVE RAIN
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 6-10 EXA EV/G (TO 1.5KJ/KG)
SHOULD BE PRESENT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT ALONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR...MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTREMITY OF CONVECTIVE AREA ONLY UP AROUND 30 KTS
(0-6KM).
&&
.LONG TERM...
OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LESS CERTAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE LATEST GFS IS STILL A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEARLY THE ONLY LIFT THAT WILL BE GENERATED WILL BE
FROM THE 700-500MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE AT
250MB IT LOOKS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT
SATURDAY WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. THE SOUTH PLAINS STAND THE BEST
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HARMS HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS DURING THE MORNING.
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NIL WITH MODERATE AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY. AS MOIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY LOW NCAPES.
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ALSO NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WHAT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT WILL BE
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL...THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO
BE LESS LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MAKE AS STRONG RETURN TO
THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TO INVADE WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY
FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL STILL
BE FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 87 64 90 66 / 10 20 20 20 10
TULIA 66 88 66 89 68 / 0 20 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 67 89 66 89 69 / 0 20 30 30 10
LEVELLAND 65 87 67 90 69 / 10 20 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 70 87 68 89 70 / 10 20 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 65 86 66 92 68 / 10 40 40 20 10
BROWNFIELD 66 86 67 90 69 / 10 30 40 30 10
CHILDRESS 70 95 70 89 72 / 0 0 30 40 10
SPUR 70 91 69 89 71 / 10 20 30 40 10
ASPERMONT 73 94 72 89 73 / 10 10 30 40 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/01
824
FXUS64 KLUB 131737
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT
KLBB THOUGH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF ATTM. AT LEAST NOW YOU KNOW IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET AND HOT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS SWAY BUT BEGINS TO SEE ITS GRIP WEAKENED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA AND NRN DURANGO WILL DRIFT NWD TODAY AND
TONIGHT CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE AREAS NEAR CHILDRESS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OF THAT OCCURRING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT POSSIBILITY
STILL SMALL. WILL NUDGE POPS UP THAT TIME PERIOD BUT KEEP BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
TWO UNIQUELY SEPARATE FCST CHALLENGES AWAIT THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A SUBTROPICAL LOW/BROAD WAVE EDGING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BEHIND OUR DEPARTING UPPER HIGH...AND THE SECOND IS
A MORE DISTINCT DECAY OF SAID HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES AND SINKS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. BOTH OF THESE
DILEMMAS PRESENT INTERESTING SCENARIOS FOR RAINFALL...WITH PERHAPS
THE LATTER PROVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED BOUTS OF NOCTURNAL MCSS IN AN UNSETTLED W-NW FLOW REGIME.
MORE ON THAT LATER.
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS STILL HIGHER THAN WE`D
LIKE TO SEE ONE DAY OUT FROM THE EVENT...BUT SADLY THIS IS
BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH FEATURES OVER MEXICO THAT ARE SO POORLY
SAMPLED BY RAOBS. VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF CG LIGHTNING LENDS
SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE NAM`S MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS WAVE BY
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVER THE TX-NM BORDER...BUT AT THIS POINT OUR
FORECAST REMAINS WEIGHTED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD
ON THE CAPROCK...THE HIGHEST PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN OFF
THE CAPROCK AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S TRACK. INITIAL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY.
ALMOST NIL THREAT FOR SEVERE IN THIS SETUP AS DEEP WARM CLOUD
SATURATION WILL STUNT HAIL GROWTH AND GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE GUST
POTENTIAL. INSTEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STEAL THE
LIMELIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
SLOW AND/OR TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OTHERWISE...COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...THE GFS STILL LOOKS MUCH TOO
BULLISH IN KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OUR OF CWA BY SAT
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP THIS DEPARTURE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY SAT
EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUN
AND MON FAVORS MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS IT
RETROGRADES INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF`S IDEA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND UNTIL RECENTLY THE GFS WANTED NO PART OF IT. NOW
THE TABLE IS TURNING IN FAVOR OF AN ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST SERN COLORADO INTO NWRN OKLAHOMA. TYPICALLY
WE CAN EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SPREADING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR DOMAIN DURING THESE SETUPS AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS MON-WED
COULD BE LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO HOST LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT MCSS IN MODEST W-NW FLOW. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
JUST ONE PERIOD /MON NIGHT/ FOR NOW FOR POPS OVER OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON FINER DETAILS
SUCH AS CONVECTIVE RECOVERY AND THE LOCATION OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.
TEMP-WISE...CONTINUED TO KEEP SATURDAY THE COOLEST WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 80S GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SUCH LOW THICKNESSES FROM THE
SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SHOULD SEE A QUICK REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS BY SUN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE WITH VALUES REMAINING IN CHECK NEXT WEEK
UNDER SHALLOW RIDGING AT BEST. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO DO THEIR PART TO KEEP DAYTIME THICKNESSES IN LINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 66 88 64 89 / 0 0 20 10 20
TULIA 96 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 95 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 93 68 88 67 89 / 0 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 94 69 88 68 88 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENVER CITY 92 67 86 66 91 / 0 10 30 30 30
BROWNFIELD 92 68 86 67 89 / 0 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 98 73 96 70 88 / 0 0 0 20 50
SPUR 94 71 92 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 96 73 94 72 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
259
FXUS64 KLUB 131129
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET AND HOT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS SWAY BUT BEGINS TO SEE ITS GRIP WEAKENED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA AND NRN DURANGO WILL DRIFT NWD TODAY AND
TONIGHT CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE AREAS NEAR CHILDRESS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OF THAT OCCURRING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT POSSIBILITY
STILL SMALL. WILL NUDGE POPS UP THAT TIME PERIOD BUT KEEP BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ATTM.
LONG TERM...
TWO UNIQUELY SEPARATE FCST CHALLENGES AWAIT THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A SUBTROPICAL LOW/BROAD WAVE EDGING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BEHIND OUR DEPARTING UPPER HIGH...AND THE SECOND IS
A MORE DISTINCT DECAY OF SAID HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES AND SINKS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. BOTH OF THESE
DILEMMAS PRESENT INTERESTING SCENARIOS FOR RAINFALL...WITH PERHAPS
THE LATTER PROVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED BOUTS OF NOCTURNAL MCSS IN AN UNSETTLED W-NW FLOW REGIME.
MORE ON THAT LATER.
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS STILL HIGHER THAN WE`D
LIKE TO SEE ONE DAY OUT FROM THE EVENT...BUT SADLY THIS IS
BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH FEATURES OVER MEXICO THAT ARE SO POORLY
SAMPLED BY RAOBS. VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF CG LIGHTNING LENDS
SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE NAM`S MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS WAVE BY
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVER THE TX-NM BORDER...BUT AT THIS POINT OUR
FORECAST REMAINS WEIGHTED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD
ON THE CAPROCK...THE HIGHEST PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN OFF
THE CAPROCK AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S TRACK. INITIAL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY.
ALMOST NIL THREAT FOR SEVERE IN THIS SETUP AS DEEP WARM CLOUD
SATURATION WILL STUNT HAIL GROWTH AND GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE GUST
POTENTIAL. INSTEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STEAL THE
LIMELIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
SLOW AND/OR TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OTHERWISE...COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...THE GFS STILL LOOKS MUCH TOO
BULLISH IN KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OUR OF CWA BY SAT
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP THIS DEPARTURE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY SAT
EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUN
AND MON FAVORS MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS IT
RETROGRADES INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF`S IDEA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND UNTIL RECENTLY THE GFS WANTED NO PART OF IT. NOW
THE TABLE IS TURNING IN FAVOR OF AN ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST SERN COLORADO INTO NWRN OKLAHOMA. TYPICALLY
WE CAN EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SPREADING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR DOMAIN DURING THESE SETUPS AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS MON-WED
COULD BE LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO HOST LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT MCSS IN MODEST W-NW FLOW. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
JUST ONE PERIOD /MON NIGHT/ FOR NOW FOR POPS OVER OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON FINER DETAILS
SUCH AS CONVECTIVE RECOVERY AND THE LOCATION OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.
TEMP-WISE...CONTINUED TO KEEP SATURDAY THE COOLEST WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 80S GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SUCH LOW THICKNESSES FROM THE
SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SHOULD SEE A QUICK REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS BY SUN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE WITH VALUES REMAINING IN CHECK NEXT WEEK
UNDER SHALLOW RIDGING AT BEST. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO DO THEIR PART TO KEEP DAYTIME THICKNESSES IN LINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 66 88 64 89 / 0 0 20 10 20
TULIA 96 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 95 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 93 68 88 67 89 / 0 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 94 69 88 68 88 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENVER CITY 92 67 86 66 91 / 0 10 30 30 30
BROWNFIELD 92 68 86 67 89 / 0 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 98 73 96 70 88 / 0 0 0 20 50
SPUR 94 71 92 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 96 73 94 72 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93/07
269
FXUS64 KLUB 130845
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET AND HOT DAY IN STORE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS SWAY BUT BEGINS TO SEE ITS GRIP WEAKENED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SRN CHIHUAHUA AND NRN DURANGO WILL DRIFT NWD TODAY AND
TONIGHT CAUSING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK AND THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE AREAS NEAR CHILDRESS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OF THAT OCCURRING BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT POSSIBILITY
STILL SMALL. WILL NUDGE POPS UP THAT TIME PERIOD BUT KEEP BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
TWO UNIQUELY SEPARATE FCST CHALLENGES AWAIT THE LONG TERM. THE
FIRST IS A SUBTROPICAL LOW/BROAD WAVE EDGING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BEHIND OUR DEPARTING UPPER HIGH...AND THE SECOND IS
A MORE DISTINCT DECAY OF SAID HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
RETROGRADES AND SINKS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. BOTH OF THESE
DILEMMAS PRESENT INTERESTING SCENARIOS FOR RAINFALL...WITH PERHAPS
THE LATTER PROVING THE MOST BENEFICIAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED BOUTS OF NOCTURNAL MCSS IN AN UNSETTLED W-NW FLOW REGIME.
MORE ON THAT LATER.
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL LOW IS STILL HIGHER THAN WE`D
LIKE TO SEE ONE DAY OUT FROM THE EVENT...BUT SADLY THIS IS
BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH FEATURES OVER MEXICO THAT ARE SO POORLY
SAMPLED BY RAOBS. VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE PAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF CG LIGHTNING LENDS
SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE NAM`S MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS WAVE BY
SATURDAY DIRECTLY OVER THE TX-NM BORDER...BUT AT THIS POINT OUR
FORECAST REMAINS WEIGHTED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
FAVORING A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD
ON THE CAPROCK...THE HIGHEST PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN OFF
THE CAPROCK AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW`S TRACK. INITIAL DEEP-LAYER
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY.
ALMOST NIL THREAT FOR SEVERE IN THIS SETUP AS DEEP WARM CLOUD
SATURATION WILL STUNT HAIL GROWTH AND GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE GUST
POTENTIAL. INSTEAD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STEAL THE
LIMELIGHT AS PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
SLOW AND/OR TRAINING CELL MOTIONS. OTHERWISE...COMPARED TO THE
REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...THE GFS STILL LOOKS MUCH TOO
BULLISH IN KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OUR OF CWA BY SAT
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP THIS DEPARTURE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY SAT
EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY SUN
AND MON FAVORS MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS IT
RETROGRADES INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF`S IDEA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND UNTIL RECENTLY THE GFS WANTED NO PART OF IT. NOW
THE TABLE IS TURNING IN FAVOR OF AN ACTIVE UPSLOPE PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST SERN COLORADO INTO NWRN OKLAHOMA. TYPICALLY
WE CAN EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SPREADING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR DOMAIN DURING THESE SETUPS AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS MON-WED
COULD BE LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO HOST LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT MCSS IN MODEST W-NW FLOW. OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT
JUST ONE PERIOD /MON NIGHT/ FOR NOW FOR POPS OVER OUR NERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS ADDITIONAL CHANCES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON FINER DETAILS
SUCH AS CONVECTIVE RECOVERY AND THE LOCATION OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.
TEMP-WISE...CONTINUED TO KEEP SATURDAY THE COOLEST WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 80S GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SUCH LOW THICKNESSES FROM THE
SURGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. SHOULD SEE A QUICK REBOUND
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS BY SUN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE WITH VALUES REMAINING IN CHECK NEXT WEEK
UNDER SHALLOW RIDGING AT BEST. CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO DO THEIR PART TO KEEP DAYTIME THICKNESSES IN LINE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 93 66 88 64 89 / 0 0 20 10 20
TULIA 96 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
PLAINVIEW 95 68 90 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 30
LEVELLAND 93 68 88 67 89 / 0 10 20 20 30
LUBBOCK 94 69 88 68 88 / 0 10 20 20 40
DENVER CITY 92 67 86 66 91 / 0 10 30 30 30
BROWNFIELD 92 68 86 67 89 / 0 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 98 73 96 70 88 / 0 0 0 20 50
SPUR 94 71 92 69 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 96 73 94 72 88 / 0 10 10 30 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93
533
FXUS64 KLUB 130449
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE
12 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AT KLBB CONTINUES TO LOOK
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MENTION GIVEN CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH AND
ELEVATED WINDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER WITH 594DAM HEIGHT NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE HEAT BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS A WEAKNESS MOVES NORTH
OUT OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIOEND WEAK UL LOW...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WORK ITS
WAY INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING
BUT OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS FORECAST ITERATION. IF
ANYTHING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS
WILL FAVOR SATURDAY FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
AS WELL. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS WAVE
WITH EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD LAYER FLOW
WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES AND
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPICTS EXPECTED VERY LOW
NCAPE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.65 AND 1.85 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED. THIS
EQUATES TO ANOMALIES OF AROUND 175 TO 200 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL DEEPEN TO 3.5KM AND
LOWERING LCLS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LITTLE RAINFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND SQUASHING NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 62 95 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 97 66 97 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 95 65 96 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 94 65 95 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 96 66 95 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 95 64 93 68 82 / 0 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 94 66 94 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 20
CHILDRESS 99 71 100 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 95 70 97 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 98 73 98 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
139
FXUS64 KLUB 122324
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR
GREATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KLBB WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME LOW
STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING. WILL EVALUATE FOR 06Z ISSUANCE AS TO
PROBABILITY OF THIS REACHING THE TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER WITH 594DAM HEIGHT NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE HEAT BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS A WEAKNESS MOVES NORTH
OUT OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIOEND WEAK UL LOW...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WORK ITS
WAY INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING
BUT OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS FORECAST ITERATION. IF
ANYTHING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS
WILL FAVOR SATURDAY FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
AS WELL. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS WAVE
WITH EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD LAYER FLOW
WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES AND
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPICTS EXPECTED VERY LOW
NCAPE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.65 AND 1.85 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED. THIS
EQUATES TO ANOMALIES OF AROUND 175 TO 200 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL DEEPEN TO 3.5KM AND
LOWERING LCLS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LITTLE RAINFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND SQUASHING NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 95 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 66 97 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
PLAINVIEW 65 96 68 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 65 95 68 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 95 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 64 93 68 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 94 68 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 100 72 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 20
SPUR 70 97 72 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 30
ASPERMONT 73 98 74 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
450
FXUS64 KLUB 122011
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER WITH 594DAM HEIGHT NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE BIG STORY WILL BE
THE HEAT BUT CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS A WEAKNESS MOVES NORTH
OUT OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIOEND WEAK UL LOW...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WORK ITS
WAY INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING
BUT OTHERWISE CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS FORECAST ITERATION. IF
ANYTHING...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GFS HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS
WILL FAVOR SATURDAY FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
AS WELL. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS WAVE
WITH EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. CLOUD LAYER FLOW
WILL CONSIDERABLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES AND
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA LATE ON
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS DEPICTS EXPECTED VERY LOW
NCAPE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT ANYWHERE BETWEEN
1.65 AND 1.85 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS FAVORED. THIS
EQUATES TO ANOMALIES OF AROUND 175 TO 200 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL DEEPEN TO 3.5KM AND
LOWERING LCLS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LITTLE RAINFALL NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND SQUASHING NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 62 95 65 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
TULIA 66 97 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
PLAINVIEW 65 96 68 89 65 / 0 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 65 95 68 84 65 / 0 0 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 95 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 64 93 68 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 66 94 68 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 100 72 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 20
SPUR 70 97 72 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 30
ASPERMONT 73 98 74 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/01
706
FXUS64 KLUB 121700
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS A CONTRIBUTOR
TO A VERY SUBTLE DECREASE IN PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING HIGHS TODAY UP TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...AND
MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 0 AND 1 DEGREE...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS
NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. POPS NIL WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS RIDGING WILL TUG OUR SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ALLOW A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE TO
LIFT NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO COMPLETE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH
PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY.
POTENTIALLY NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE
COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
FAVORING THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GREATEST. INITIAL DEEPENING
OF MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES...BUT THE DEEPEST ASCENT AND BEST POP CHANCES ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW AS IT SPREADS ATOP THE
REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID-
LEVEL WINDS BY SATURDAY SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MODEL PWATS SOAR TO 2
INCHES. SHOULD THE WAVE TRACK ANY FARTHER WEST...THEN THIS THREAT
WOULD SHIFT ONTO THE CAPROCK.
BEHIND THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...UPPER RIDGING REBOUNDS WESTWARD
OVER ERN NM AND LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC IN INTENSITY. THIS
IS GOOD NEWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE
CHANCES CAN EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIDGE. AS WE SUSPECTED...THE ECMWF WAS TOO
STRONG YESTERDAY WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WHERE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS IS
THAT IT FAVORS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EFFECTIVELY NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOCAL
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS IT KEEPS A 500MB HIGH ANCHORED
A BIT CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT ANY DECAY OF THIS HIGH FROM
REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES COULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE DOOR TO A
WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS WERE COOLED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES FRI AND SAT IN
ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES THANKS WITH
THE DEEPENING MOISTURE. NO
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 66 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 97 68 95 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 95 70 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 94 69 94 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 96 70 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 95 68 93 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 94 70 94 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
CHILDRESS 99 72 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 95 71 96 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 98 71 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/16
397
FXUS64 KLUB 121116
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.AVIATION...
BENIGN WX WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS A CONTRIBUTOR
TO A VERY SUBTLE DECREASE IN PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING HIGHS TODAY UP TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...AND
MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 0 AND 1 DEGREE...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS
NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. POPS NIL WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS RIDGING WILL TUG OUR SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ALLOW A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE TO
LIFT NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO COMPLETE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH
PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY.
POTENTIALLY NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE
COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
FAVORING THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GREATEST. INITIAL DEEPENING
OF MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES...BUT THE DEEPEST ASCENT AND BEST POP CHANCES ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW AS IT SPREADS ATOP THE
REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID-
LEVEL WINDS BY SATURDAY SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MODEL PWATS SOAR TO 2
INCHES. SHOULD THE WAVE TRACK ANY FARTHER WEST...THEN THIS THREAT
WOULD SHIFT ONTO THE CAPROCK.
BEHIND THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...UPPER RIDGING REBOUNDS WESTWARD
OVER ERN NM AND LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC IN INTENSITY. THIS
IS GOOD NEWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE
CHANCES CAN EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIDGE. AS WE SUSPECTED...THE ECMWF WAS TOO
STRONG YESTERDAY WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WHERE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS IS
THAT IT FAVORS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EFFECTIVELY NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOCAL
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS IT KEEPS A 500MB HIGH ANCHORED
A BIT CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT ANY DECAY OF THIS HIGH FROM
REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES COULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE DOOR TO A
WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS WERE COOLED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES FRI AND SAT IN
ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES THANKS WITH
THE DEEPENING MOISTURE. NO
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 66 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 97 68 95 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 95 70 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 94 69 94 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 96 70 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 95 68 93 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 94 70 94 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
CHILDRESS 99 72 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 95 71 96 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 98 71 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93/07
359
FXUS64 KLUB 120934
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS A CONTRIBUTOR
TO A VERY SUBTLE DECREASE IN PROGGED 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING HIGHS TODAY UP TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY...AND
MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 0 AND 1 DEGREE...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MOS
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT IN LINE WITH WARMER MAVMOS
NUMBERS GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SOUTH WINDS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. POPS NIL WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS RIDGING WILL TUG OUR SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ALLOW A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE TO
LIFT NORTH FROM OLD MEXICO COMPLETE WITH PRECIP CHANCES. DEEPENING
MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH
PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY.
POTENTIALLY NARROW NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE
COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
FAVORING THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GREATEST. INITIAL DEEPENING
OF MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY FRI MORNING IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES...BUT THE DEEPEST ASCENT AND BEST POP CHANCES ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANT WARM CORE LOW AS IT SPREADS ATOP THE
REGION. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN MID-
LEVEL WINDS BY SATURDAY SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MODEL PWATS SOAR TO 2
INCHES. SHOULD THE WAVE TRACK ANY FARTHER WEST...THEN THIS THREAT
WOULD SHIFT ONTO THE CAPROCK.
BEHIND THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...UPPER RIDGING REBOUNDS WESTWARD
OVER ERN NM AND LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ANEMIC IN INTENSITY. THIS
IS GOOD NEWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THESE
CHANCES CAN EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIDGE. AS WE SUSPECTED...THE ECMWF WAS TOO
STRONG YESTERDAY WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH RACING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WHERE THE CURRENT ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS IS
THAT IT FAVORS ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EFFECTIVELY NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOCAL
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AS IT KEEPS A 500MB HIGH ANCHORED
A BIT CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT ANY DECAY OF THIS HIGH FROM
REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES COULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE DOOR TO A
WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS WERE COOLED OFF SEVERAL DEGREES FRI AND SAT IN
ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES THANKS WITH
THE DEEPENING MOISTURE. NO
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 95 66 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 97 68 95 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 95 70 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 94 69 94 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 96 70 95 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 95 68 93 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 94 70 94 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 20
CHILDRESS 99 72 100 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 95 71 96 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 98 71 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/93
