051 FXUS64 KLUB 031123 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 523 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON /AOA 20 KTS/. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE...BUT STAY UP A BIT /11-13 KTS/ THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/ SHORT TERM... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPOSED OF DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SAID UA RIDGE CONTINUED TRANSLATE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THUS NNW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED WHICH WILL AID IN FILTERING IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL EVOLVE TO NEAR ZONAL BY THIS EVENING...AS THE UA RIDGE FLATTENS WHILST IT PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DE-AMPLIFICATION IS COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC UA LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ABL MIXING UP TO 700-650 MB. WIND SPEEDS AT THOSE LEVELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ BUT STILL BREEZY NONETHELESS. HENCE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO SOAR 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORM AND AS SUCH...RHS WILL DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE ELEVATED AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. A NOTABLE DECLINATION IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS UP A BIT...AND THEREFORE A MILD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED /UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE/. LONG TERM... MONDAY LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO ERODE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN POTENTIAL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW BORDER COUNTRY. 00Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT EVENT WAY TOO FAR OUT TO GET LOST ON DETAILS. ATTM A SLOWER SOLUTION AS INDICATED BY THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A CLOSED SYSTEM LIKE THIS ONE...SUGGESTS PRECIP CHANCES NOT LIKELY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST AND LOOKING TO BE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL PULL MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY THEN KEEP MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES COME JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE FCST. STILL A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE DETAILS TO COME INTO PLAY...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT DECENT SHOT FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER... A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE 20-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH. TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE RHS MAY BE AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING. FUELS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND MOIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...THE FUEL LOAD IS LIMITED GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF THE PAST TWO YEARS. DUE TO THE FUEL MOISTURE VARIATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FUEL LIMITATIONS...WILL LEAN TOWARDS ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS INSTEAD OF A RED FLAG WARNING ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 76 37 67 25 49 / 0 0 10 10 0 TULIA 76 39 69 27 51 / 0 0 10 10 0 PLAINVIEW 77 41 72 28 52 / 0 0 0 10 0 LEVELLAND 81 44 74 31 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 LUBBOCK 82 44 75 31 56 / 0 0 0 10 0 DENVER CITY 81 44 79 32 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 BROWNFIELD 80 45 78 32 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 CHILDRESS 82 46 78 36 58 / 0 0 0 10 0 SPUR 80 47 78 36 58 / 0 0 0 10 0 ASPERMONT 83 49 83 39 58 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 29