000
FXUS64 KLUB 261112
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
512 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.AVIATION...
NO IMPACTS THIS PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
SHORT TERM...
AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION
EJECTS...SUBTLE RIDGING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN
ERN CO / WRN KS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PD...SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO
PREDOMINANTLY THE SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE A VERY PLEASANT THANKSGIVING
IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ARRIVED AT SOME COMMON GROUND WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS WEEKEND/S SPLITTING TROF...THERE
IS NOW A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
SUNDAY/S POLAR FRONT. SIMPLY PUT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THIS BOUNDARY AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY ITS ARRIVAL COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF AND WRF-NMM. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED
STRATEGY OF A STRONGER FRONT AS THIS IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE
NON-GFS CAMP. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INCREASING ASCENT
PRIMARILY ALONG A ZONE OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. IF THE WARMER
00Z GFS THERMAL PROFILES COME TO FRUITION...PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL WARRANTS AT LEAST A RA/SN MIX FOR
OUR NWRN ZONES DURING THE DAY.
BY MONDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
SUGGEST THE MEAN TROF AXIS WILL BEGIN CLEARING THE CWA ALLOWING
PRECIP CHANCES TO TAPER OFF. FOCUS WILL HOWEVER TURN TO THE
THE CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO BE IN/NEAR NORTHERN OLD MEXICO BY THIS
TIME. OVERALL IDEA IS FOR THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING RE-INTENSIFICATION BY MIDWEEK.
WILL NOT HANG MY HAT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT BEFORE AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 26 67 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 66 30 68 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 66 30 68 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 65 31 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 33 70 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 64 33 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 33 69 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 35 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 67 36 70 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 67 38 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/93
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