580
FXUS64 KLUB 021832
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
132 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATING ALTHOUGH A LOW RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING
WITHIN 50 MILES SOUTH AND EAST OF KCDS FROM 12Z TO 16Z THURSDAY.
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MODEST SOUTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH TERMINALS THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT KCDS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A MODEST SUBTROPICAL JET WILL EDGE CLOSER DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL LEAVE US IN SUBSIDE NT RIGHT
FRONT QUADRANT.
SURFACE TROUGH STARTS OUT NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE THIS MORNING
WITH MILDLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. IN FACT...IT IS JUST AS
WELL WE CALL IT A DRYLINE DESPITE IT PROBABLY MORE CORRECTLY SHOULD
BE CALLED A PACIFIC FRONT AS THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER
SUBSTANTIVE. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT STREAMER
SHOWERS THOUGH SUSPECT THAT MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE MUCH TOO
LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE GRIDS.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THINGS REALLY DRY OUT WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
WITH RH DOWN AROUND 10 PCT IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT IN
THIS AREA THUS MITIGATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE
CONCERNS...THAT...AND THE VEGETATION IS MODESTLY MOIST.
LONG TERM...
SLIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS TOMORROW AFTN...AND CONTINUED
ABOVE NORM WARMTH /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO AN UA CLOSED LOW THAT WAS BEARING DOWN ON THE NW PACIFIC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS FRI NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO A SHARPENED
SW FLOW...AND A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM SW KS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WRLY WINDS ON THE CAPROCK WITH MORE OF A
SWRLY COMPONENT OFF THE CAPROCK. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO
SEE PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AOA 1.00 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...ONE MORE
DAY OF ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WILL OCCUR /MID TO UPPER 80S/...THOUGH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM/S FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AND THE
NAM IS QUITE BULLISH IN THIS REGARD AS IT PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE
FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI AFTN /VERSUS 05/00Z PER THE
GFS/. DECREASING HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN IMPINGING FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE
TEMPS TO WARM ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES ON FRI.
THE FRONT WHICH IS DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY CLEAR THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NERLY WINDS
FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS /PER THE MEX GUIDANCE/...COURTESY
OF PRESSURE RISES OF 10-14 MB/6 HRS. PWATS QUICKLY DECLINE AS MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREBY SHIFTING THE MOISTURE
AXIS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THUS THIS IS THE REASONING FOR PRECIP
BEING EXHIBITED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...A
BIT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR LOW ROLLING
PLAINS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO ADD BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS ACROSS THE SAID AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX BY SAT MORNING BUT CLEAR SKIES AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 3-5 DEGREES
CELSIUS SUGGESTS A CHILLY START TO THE DAY /A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING NW TO UPPER 40S SE/ BEFORE WARMING UP ONLY INTO THE 50S AND
60S BY THE AFTN.
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION SUN MORNING...WHILST SFC RIDGING COMMENCE TO LOSE IS GRIP AS
IT PROPAGATES EAST WITH TIME. THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD START GIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES /MID TO UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE/. THEREAFTER...UA
RIDGING AND SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVING WAY TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 87 51 78 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 56 89 53 82 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 89 56 83 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 56 90 57 85 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 61 91 60 86 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 58 90 58 87 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 60 91 59 86 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 66 93 63 88 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
SPUR 66 92 62 88 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 66 92 64 90 49 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
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