051
FXUS64 KLUB 031123
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT SW
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON /AOA 20
KTS/. AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE...BUT STAY UP A BIT
/11-13 KTS/ THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS COMPOSED OF DEEP
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND UA RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS SAID UA RIDGE CONTINUED TRANSLATE EAST TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THUS NNW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED WHICH WILL
AID IN FILTERING IN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
EVOLVE TO NEAR ZONAL BY THIS EVENING...AS THE UA RIDGE FLATTENS
WHILST IT PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DE-AMPLIFICATION
IS COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC UA LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT...WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ABL MIXING UP TO 700-650 MB. WIND SPEEDS AT THOSE
LEVELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ BUT STILL BREEZY
NONETHELESS. HENCE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO SOAR 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORM AND AS SUCH...RHS WILL DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
15 PERCENT BY PEAK HEATING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE
ELEVATED AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS
APPEARS VALID. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A NOTABLE DECLINATION IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW TREKS EAST TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS UP A BIT...AND THEREFORE A MILD
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED /UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S SE/.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY LOOKING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH
DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD
BE A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS THICKNESSES LOWER WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO ERODE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RAIN POTENTIAL END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERT SW BORDER COUNTRY. 00Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A
BIT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT EVENT WAY TOO FAR OUT
TO GET LOST ON DETAILS. ATTM A SLOWER SOLUTION AS INDICATED BY THE
LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A
CLOSED SYSTEM LIKE THIS ONE...SUGGESTS PRECIP CHANCES NOT LIKELY
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST AND LOOKING TO BE HIGHEST
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL PULL MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM FRIDAY THEN KEEP MENTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGHEST CHANCES COME JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE FCST. STILL A
LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE DETAILS TO COME
INTO PLAY...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT DECENT SHOT FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL ENCOURAGE 20-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25
MPH. TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE RHS MAY BE AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT
BY PEAK HEATING. FUELS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND MOIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE...THE FUEL LOAD IS LIMITED GIVEN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST TWO YEARS. DUE TO THE FUEL MOISTURE
VARIATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FUEL LIMITATIONS...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS INSTEAD OF A RED FLAG WARNING ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 76 37 67 25 49 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 76 39 69 27 51 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 77 41 72 28 52 / 0 0 0 10 0
LEVELLAND 81 44 74 31 54 / 0 0 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 82 44 75 31 56 / 0 0 0 10 0
DENVER CITY 81 44 79 32 54 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 80 45 78 32 54 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 82 46 78 36 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
SPUR 80 47 78 36 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
ASPERMONT 83 49 83 39 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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