000
FXUS64 KLUB 101248
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED RAIN/SLEET SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE EXTENDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE GFS DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH FOR CONTINUED LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z BEFORE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT DETERIORATE MEANINGFULLY UNTIL 06-12Z
WHEN PROSPECTS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/
SHORT TERM...
SUB-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN SPITE OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN
ANTICIPATED UA LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF EL PASO
BY 12Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED/BROKEN MID/HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD TODAY/TONIGHT WITHIN THE SAID AMBIENT FLOW. FORCING/ASCENT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UA LOW/
TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. MODELS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THEIR RECENT
SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN HANDLING THIS...SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY
HIGHER POPS /40 TO 50 PERCENT/ CONFIGURED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WILL
BE WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...WITH PROFILES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AS
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE BEST PROSPECTS
FOR PRECIPITATION/ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UA LOW THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP...WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...PROPAGATING ESE. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
SHOWED THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WAS THE ECMWF DISPLAYING A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. THUS...WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE BEST CONSENSUS
AMONGST SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SOUTHERLY
PROJECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 0.70 BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VALID DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME-FRAME...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY GETTING THE MOST /DUE TO THE PROJECTED SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF THE UA LOW/. COMPLEXITIES WILL ARISE REGARDING THE PRECIP
TYPE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A WARM NOSE IN THE 825-800 MB
LAYER THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ERODING/COOLING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...SLEET...SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF ALL
THREE PRECIP TYPES. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLEET POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THE BETTER
PRECIP CHANCES AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ESE OF THE CWA.
AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE GFS
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3
INCHES /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES/. HOWEVER...IF MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW WAS TO OCCUR...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN THAT. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN/UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.
THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A CANADIAN
UA LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AID IN
INDUCING A FROPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY...THE SAID IMPULSE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS LIMITED AND
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY CONCLUDING THAT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEAR/ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER FROPA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST POST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 39 28 40 24 48 / 10 20 30 10 0
TULIA 33 28 37 25 47 / 10 20 40 20 0
PLAINVIEW 38 28 37 26 47 / 10 20 50 20 0
LEVELLAND 40 29 36 26 51 / 10 40 50 20 0
LUBBOCK 38 29 35 27 50 / 10 30 50 20 0
DENVER CITY 44 29 36 27 54 / 20 50 50 20 10
BROWNFIELD 41 29 35 29 53 / 20 40 50 20 0
CHILDRESS 37 29 39 30 49 / 10 20 40 20 0
SPUR 39 30 36 29 52 / 10 30 50 20 0
ASPERMONT 39 30 36 28 54 / 20 30 50 30 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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