000
FXUS64 KLUB 232343
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
543 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PASS THROUGH KLBB BEFORE
6 PM/0Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HRS AT BOTH TERMINALS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEY MAY COME BACK UP A BIT IN THE MORNING IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS/VICINITY OF KCDS BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THREE HOURLY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6 OR 7 MB PER
HOUR. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS THROUGH 8 PM OR SO
THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS TYPICALLY WINDIER NORTHERN ZONES AND MAY
HANG ON A BIT LONGER THAN THAT EVEN ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE
STRONGEST PUSH APPEARS HEADED. FRONT WILL BE DRY THOUGH DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR SO FOLLOWING FRONT. STILL...SOLID COOLING
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT...
WILL DROP MOST LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ON THE CAPROCK. BETTER MIXED
WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY BUT
WILL STILL MIX OUT A BIT INTO LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN
KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI. LOWERED MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
SUPPORTED BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD ADVECTION VIA CURRENT MODEL
RUNS. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH THINGS MAY TURN INTERESTING BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A
S/W RIDGE QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. EARLY ON...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE A
CHILLY ONE...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. STILL...THE DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE A QUICK RECOVERY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES UNDER STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO
MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE...THOUGH LIKELY BEING WHISKED EASTWARD BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS...MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THAT...EYES TURN TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF
A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW WILL PASS ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUALLY OUTCOME...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION...POTENTIALLY OF THE WINTRY VARIETY...LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS....THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL SHUNT A GOOD SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...LIKELY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ALSO BUMPED UP
POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DECREASED JUST ENOUGH
TO AVOID ANY PROLONGED RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A NUMBER OF
SITES AT LEAST MOMENTARILY MET WIND AND HUMIDITY REQUIREMENTS.
STILL SOME CONCERN WITH ARRIVAL OF A STRONG FAST MOVING FRONT INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FRONTAL COOLING WILL HELP
INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...
HOWEVER THE STIFF WINDS WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN. WE CONTINUE TO
ADVISE THAT ANY BURNS BE DEALT WITH USING HIGH LEVELS OF CARE...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS AND STATE OF CURED FUELS. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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