000 FXUS64 KLUB 101248 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 648 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010 .UPDATE... ISOLATED RAIN/SLEET SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE EXTENDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE GFS DEPICTS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/ AVIATION... CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH FOR CONTINUED LOW END VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z BEFORE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL NOT DETERIORATE MEANINGFULLY UNTIL 06-12Z WHEN PROSPECTS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/ SHORT TERM... SUB-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN SPITE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL TRANSLATE OVER WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN ANTICIPATED UA LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR/JUST WEST OF EL PASO BY 12Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED/BROKEN MID/HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TODAY/TONIGHT WITHIN THE SAID AMBIENT FLOW. FORCING/ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UA LOW/ TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. MODELS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THEIR RECENT SOUTHWARD TRENDS IN HANDLING THIS...SO WE HAVE MAINTAINED RELATIVELY HIGHER POPS /40 TO 50 PERCENT/ CONFIGURED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...WITH PROFILES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AS PRECIPITATION INITIALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION/ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UA LOW THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP...WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...PROPAGATING ESE. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWED THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVELY TRACKING ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WAS THE ECMWF DISPLAYING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THUS...WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE BEST CONSENSUS AMONGST SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SOUTHERLY PROJECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 0.70 BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE VALID DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME-FRAME...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LIKELY GETTING THE MOST /DUE TO THE PROJECTED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UA LOW/. COMPLEXITIES WILL ARISE REGARDING THE PRECIP TYPE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DISPLAY A WARM NOSE IN THE 825-800 MB LAYER THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ERODING/COOLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...COULD SEE A COLD RAIN...SLEET...SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF ALL THREE PRECIP TYPES. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SLEET POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ESE OF THE CWA. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 3 INCHES /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES/. HOWEVER...IF MORE RAIN THAN SNOW WAS TO OCCUR...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS THAN THAT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN/UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A CANADIAN UA LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AID IN INDUCING A FROPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY...THE SAID IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS LIMITED AND UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY CONCLUDING THAT FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEAR/ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER FROPA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST POST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 39 28 40 24 48 / 10 20 30 10 0 TULIA 33 28 37 25 47 / 10 20 40 20 0 PLAINVIEW 38 28 37 26 47 / 10 20 50 20 0 LEVELLAND 40 29 36 26 51 / 10 40 50 20 0 LUBBOCK 38 29 35 27 50 / 10 30 50 20 0 DENVER CITY 44 29 36 27 54 / 20 50 50 20 10 BROWNFIELD 41 29 35 29 53 / 20 40 50 20 0 CHILDRESS 37 29 39 30 49 / 10 20 40 20 0 SPUR 39 30 36 29 52 / 10 30 50 20 0 ASPERMONT 39 30 36 28 54 / 20 30 50 30 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 20