508
AXUS74 KLUB 261637
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-101645-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013
...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS ALLOWED DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT TO A SMALL PART
OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE
INADEQUATE RAIN THUS FAR IN SEPTEMBER HAS ACCOUNTED FOR UNCHANGED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...
SYNOPSIS...
AT FIRST GLANCE IF YOU WERE DRIVING THROUGH THE AREA YOU MIGHT
NOT REALIZE THE EXTENT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT. SUMMER RAINS WERE
ENOUGH TO MAKE AREA GRASSES GROW AND IRRIGATED CROPS FILL MANY
FIELDS. HOWEVER...DESPITE SURFACE APPEARANCES OUR REGION CONTINUES
TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...PARTICULARLY THE LONG
TERM ASPECTS OF DROUGHT. EXAMPLES OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CAN BE
SEEN AT AREA RESERVOIRS LIKE WHITE RIVER LAKE WHICH SUPPLIES WATER
TO 4 SMALLER AREA CITIES. THE LAKE IS AT AN ALL TIME LOW HOLDING
ZERO PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY. IT HAS NOT SEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT INFLOW THIS YEAR NOR THE PAST 3 YEARS. ANOTHER SMALLER
LAKE...LAKE MACKENZIE IS AT A HISTORIC LOW AT ONLY 5.6 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION.
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN MUCH BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LONGER
TERM MEASURES SHOW THAT THE PAST 36 MONTHS HAS BEEN AS DRY OR
DRIER THAN ANY OTHER 36 MONTH PERIOD OVER THE LAST 115 YEARS. ALL
OF THESE FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO WHY THE REGION REMAINS IN MODERATE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO SEE BELOW NORMAL VALUES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER...ALTHOUGH THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS LOOSENED ITS GRIP ON AREA WEATHER.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ALLOWED AT LEAST A FEW AREAS TO SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL...MOSTLY TIED TO A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BENEFITED MOST FROM THIS RAIN...ALTHOUGH
EVEN IN THESE AREAS MOST PLACES BARELY CROSSED THE NORMAL
THRESHOLD WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT. IN PARTICULAR...CAPROCK CANYONS STATE PARK AND THE
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ON SEPTEMBER 13TH...WITH TOTALS AS HIGH
AS 3.88 INCHES MEASURED WITHIN THE PARK. THESE HIGH TOTALS WERE
VERY LOCALIZED...HOWEVER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS SAW
THE MOST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WIDESPREAD TOTALS WERE TOO LOW
TO IMPACT THE LONG TERM DROUGHT SITUATION. FARTHER WEST ON THE
SOUTH PLAINS...THE RAIN SITUATION WAS EVEN MORE GRIM...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. A FEW AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAW RAIN
TOTALS CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN A FEW LOCALIZED
SPOTS...HOWEVER...ALL OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED CONTRIBUTE TO CROP MATURATION
AFTER BENEFICIAL RAINS IN AUGUST. CROPS THEREFORE VISUALLY APPEAR
MUCH HEALTHIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. HOWEVER...SEPTEMBER
ITSELF HAS BEEN RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME AFTERNOON
WILTING OF COTTON CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE. COTTON WAS PROGRESSING
DECENTLY BUT STILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARM DAYS TO MATURE THE CROP
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SORGHUM AND CORN WAS IN FAIR TO
GOOD SHAPE WITH PEANUT PROSPECTS LOOKING GOOD. WINTER WHEAT
PLANTING HAS PROCEEDED WELL IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME
MOISTURE DURING THE LATE SUMMER. COTTON DEFOILIAGE / HARVEST WILL
INITIATE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WITH SOME BOLLS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS BEGINNING TO OPEN. LIVESTOCK WERE LARGELY IN GOOD
CONDITION THOUGH RANGELAND GRASSES RANGED FROM POOR TO GOOD
CONDITION WITH SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING NECESSARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
PLENTY OF GREEN GRASSES AND SHRUBS REMAIN OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS...
WHILE NOTABLE DRYING AND CURING OF THE FINE FUELS ON THE CAPROCK HAS
BEEN OCCURRING SINCE MID SEPTEMBER. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS
GENERALLY HAVE REMAINED NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH COULD
BE POISED TO INCREASE INTO MORE HAZARDOUS LEVELS WITH EXTENSION OF
THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
RELEASED FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WAS REFLECTING THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION PATTERN...WITH LEVELS AS LOW AS 100 TO 300 ACROSS THE
WETTER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...AND 400 TO 600 ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS NOT HAD
MUCH RECENT RAIN. THIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD WOULD
BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS ALTHOUGH FUEL LOADS WERE ONLY
MARGINAL ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
EARLY FALL IS A TRANSITION FROM THE RELIABLE MOISTURE LEVELS AND
LIGHT WINDS OF SUMMER...TOWARD MORE FREQUENT DRY SPELLS AND
INCREASING WIND. FULL CURING OF FUELS TYPICALLY DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL
AFTER THE FIRST FALL FREEZES...ALTHOUGH EARLY DRYING OF GRASSES
COULD SIGNAL PREMATURE CURING AND AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK ONCE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...LIGHTNING STARTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY FALL. COUNTY BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A HANDFUL
OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...KING...CROSBY...GARZA...LAMB...
TERRY...AND COCHRAN.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE FORMS AND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PASSES ON SATURDAY...AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
IN OCTOBER IS ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
WILL BRIEFLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN
OCTOBER.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS DECLINED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
SEPTEMBER. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON
SEPTEMBER 26:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 2-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3004.4 -0.1 54 6
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2339.3 -0.3 12 0
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2206.6 -0.5 64 67
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OCTOBER 10 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
RSS Feeds