National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

281
FXUS62 KTBW 031357
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.UPDATE...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE NEWLY NAMED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
KEEPING MODERATE EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIKELY TOO
STRONG TO ALLOW AN ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. KTBW 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS FORECAST TO HEAD
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY AT SRQ...PGD...FMY
AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GULF WATERS AND TROPICAL STORM KAREN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP EAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
POSSIBLY MUCH HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST CLOSELY
BEFORE MAKING PLANS TO BOAT ON THE GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  89  74 /  20  20  30  20
FMY  89  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  20
GIF  90  71  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
SRQ  89  74  88  74 /  40  30  50  20
BKV  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  30  10
SPG  89  77  87  76 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
AVIATION...CLOSE