National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

777
FXUS62 KMLB 031325
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...MOSTLY DRY AGAIN TODAY BUT RIP CURRENT RISK STILL MODERATE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. KXMR 10Z SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWS A DRY PROFILE WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.21 INCHES AND A VERY WARM MID LEVEL
WITH THE 700/500 MB TEMPERATURES RESPECTIVELY +9.4/-3.9C. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY RAIN
CHANCES AT ALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE
DOWN AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND STILL ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE HERE.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8-12 MPH MOST PLACES. ONE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED INVASION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. CONTINUED DRY TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SMALL AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA 8-12 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 7-12 KTS VEERING
MORE ESE THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 3 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE IN A CONTINUED LIGHT NE
SWELL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SMALL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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