National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

605
FXUS62 KJAX 011838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THESE FEATURES WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...AS MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF AROUND THE UPPER LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH THIS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS FALLING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO BE PINCHED TO THE WEST OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN PART. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK SLOWING DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW IN
THE GULF...AND THE PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUS
WILL KEEP MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCT/BKN MID DECK
THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL
KEEP A FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO SWELLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA INTO
NE FL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  88  60  86 /   0  10   0  10
SSI  64  83  67  83 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  62  85  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  67  83  70  83 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  62  87  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  63  88  67  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE