National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS62 KJAX 020749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...

MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE UNSEASONABLY COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AS DISTURBED WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM (FRI-WED)...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HOLD FIRM ENOUGH TO KEEP DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE GOMEX WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT 20% OR LESS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SAT/SUN...THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE BEST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST SATURDAY
AND INTO THE SERN U.S. NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SE
GA & NE FL WILL REMAIN ON MOIST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BUT BOTH
GFS/ECMWF KEEP HIGHEST QPF VALUES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE
MAINLY JUST 1-2 INCH EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SE GA/NE FL.
AGAIN WITH MODEL DIFFS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ACTUAL HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT OR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SINCE IT ALL
HINGES ON HOW ORGANIZED A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE GOMEX. FOR
NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE.

MON...AS LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
IS FORECAST TO PULL MOST OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NORTH OF THE REGION.

TUE/WED...MODEL DIFFS AND TIMING BECOME TOO LARGE TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AND EXPECT FLOW TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ATMOSPHERE STILL TOO DRY FOR ANY
RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION AT TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE SOME BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING SWELL AND ONSHORE FLOW WARRANTS A
CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  58  86  62 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  83  66  82  68 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  84  62  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  69  83  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  87  63  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  88  65  87  68 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/JH