National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS62 KJAX 030055
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.UPDATE...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST IS FCST TO
NUDGE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT WHILE 1020 MB SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS LOCATED
OVER GA/SC/TN TO NC AREA. A WEAK ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH INDICATIONS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ENHANCED CU IN THE NELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30N AND 80W/79W ASSOCD WITH THE TROUGH AND A WEAK
VORT LOBE IN THE MID LEVELS.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN PROJECTED
TO MOVE NW IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE ASSOCD CIRRUS OUTFLOW SPREADS
NEWD OVER PORTIONS OF FL PENINSULA. JET MAX OVER AL AND GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER GA PORTIONS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. FOR THE UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE OFFSHORE MARINE WATERS AS THE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
MARINE WATERS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE TEMPERED BY HIGH CLOUDS
AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING SO WAS NOT IN FAVOR OF LOWERING MIN TEMPS
AT THIS TIME. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 OVER SE GA AND
LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NE FL. LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND SE GA (WHERE INVERSION STRONGEST AND BOUNDARY WINDS ARE
WEAKEST) BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT INTO FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS. POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT VQQ AND
GNV BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. FEW TO SCT CU EXPECTED ON THU WITH ENE
WINDS NEAR 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE NELY AROUND 8-15 KT AT THE MARINE SITES WITH
SEAS ROUGHLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR WINDS...AND MAY INSERT ISOLD SHOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON IR IMAGERY.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY SWELLS AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  86  62  86 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  66  82  68  82 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  62  84  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  69  83  70  83 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  63  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  65  87  68  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/SHULER/MCALLISTER