National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

349
FXUS62 KJAX 030829
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
329 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW
NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST TO THE YUCATAN AND WRN CUBA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS FUNNELING INTO THE REGION IN THE STRONG NW FLOW.
EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN PREDAWN HOURS AS WINDS WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR
25 INLAND. ALSO LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE POURING SSE INTO BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER OVER PARTS OF SE
GA.

MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING AND THEN LIFT NE INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MON AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN DRIFT SE TOWARD SOUTH FL AND THE BAHAMAS LATE MON
NIGHT.

SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY LATER TODAY BUT WITH THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AGAIN. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...A COLD
DRAINAGE FLOW...DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S COAST. HAVE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING
FOR THE AREA WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND AND PATCHY FROST NEAR THE COAST.

MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND THEN LATE AFTN
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT INTO SE GA WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN
THE EVENING. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE FL PENINSULA IN THE AFTN...MAX
TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID 60S. ALTHO MIN TEMPS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD...THEY WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 35-40 DEG RANGE INLAND AND MID 40S COAST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUED POPS AT 40-50% FOR MUCH OF SE GA INTO EXTREME NE FL AND
20% ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES. MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR LIMITED AS
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SE GA AND MID 70S ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...FROM DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY. TEMPS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD DUE TO STRONG WEST WINDS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS THE DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR BUT NO FREEZES
EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEEP LOW OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS THAT
WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE COAST ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND
NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE DEEP
LOW WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
RESULTING IN ROUGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED AFT 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ONGOING OFFSHORE NE FL AS LATEST SURGE OF
COOL AIR IS PUSHING SE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY OFFSHORE AND
EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SCA ALL LEGS BY MID WEEK WHEN A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE GALE EVENT FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW. AN ELEVATED RISK IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH`S WILL BE IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE. WILL
ISSUE A RED FLAG WRNG FOR MARION...PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES
WHERE WILDFIRES MAY BE ONGOING. ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT)
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH AND SUSTAINED NW WINDS WILL BE 15-20 MPH
AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  35  59  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  53  28  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  34  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  54  30  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  29  66  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR HAMILTON-
     SUWANNEE.

GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON