National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS62 KFFC 031131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL LOW
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT IN THE CLEAR AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SEEING PERIODS OF PATCHY FOG
REPORTED. EXPECT ANY FOG TO DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOSE
CONTROL OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH DAMPENING OUT
HIGH ALOFT...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE STATE...WILL SEE
DECENT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION...OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES
TO DO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST. THE LATEST
ECMWF IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS AS FAR AS LOCATION IS
CONCERNED. THE CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE...ALTHOUGH
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE GFS/ECMWF POSITION. AT THIS
POINT...WHATEVER MODEL IS CHOSEN IT STILL IS POINTING TO A VERY
WET SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND WILL RAISE POPS TO
HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. DRYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS THE H5 RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING PATCHY MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 13Z...AND AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING...INCREASING
TO 3-5KT AND MORE VRB IN NATURE BY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE ATL
AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  61  87  60 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         84  67  85  65 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     79  57  82  54 /  20   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    85  60  86  61 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        86  67  88  66 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     83  64  84  61 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           86  60  87  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            85  60  86  61 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  59  86  61 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         86  66  87  65 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31