Hydrologic Outlook

Thu, Mar GMT 7 13:05:07

FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-GAC001-
003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-080500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
805 AM EST THU MAR 7 2013

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA

FOR THE SPRING OF 2013...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER PREDICTS
A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

HISTORICALLY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY
TO MID MARCH...AND ENDING IN MID APRIL FOR THE REGION.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF MARCH 4TH
ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS CLOSER TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED OFF OF SERFC MULTISENSOR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
THE LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION THROUGH MID MARCH.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK...WHICH RUNS THROUGH MAY...SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

SUMMARY...
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS METEOROLOGICAL MODEL INDICATES ONLY ONE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH MARCH 21ST AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALL OTHER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SUGGEST RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SPRING
FLOOD PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THE NUMBER OF RIVER
FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

$$

SPC

Hydrologic Outlook (MIAESFJAX)

Hydrologic Outlook