Area Forecast Discussion

Thu, 23 May 2013 19:08:12 GMT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

REST OF THE AFTERNOON: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF
THE NE FL/SE GA COAST. ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY CAN BE SEEN OVER SRN
GA THAT MAY BE HELPING ISOLD SMALL POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM
OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE OF ABOUT 1500
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 20-25 KT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THIS AND LOCAL AREAS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY IN
THE ERN ZONES/ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 6 PM.

SHORT TERM:
TONIGHT...ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE ERN ZONES AND SE ZONES
IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT ON NW FLOW ALOFT BUT AIRMASS LOOKS DRIER AND NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF MENTIONING EVEN ISOLD CONVECTION. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. LITTLE IF ANY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OVER NE FL IN THE MORNING AND
S OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MEAN LAYER RH FROM 1000-500 MB LOOKS
TO BE DROPPING TO 30% OR LESS. GIVEN THIS AND STOUT NWLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WX. ONLY SLIGHT POP OVER EXTREME SE ZONE. HIGHS
STILL COULD MANAGE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 15G25-30 MPH AND COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA
IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO NOT EXPECTED E COAST SEA BREEZE ATTM EXCEPT
CHANCE OF ONE FORMING FLAGLER/SRN ST JOHNS COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: WEEKEND...A GORGEOUS WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NNE OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 ALONG THE COAST UNDER BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST. NOT MUCH FOG EXPECTED
DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.

MON THROUGH FRI...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS AN AXIS OVER THE
GA/SC COASTLINE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER MEAN LAYER
RIDGING...BUT CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A LOW 20% CHANCE OF PASSING
COASTAL SHOWERS TUE-THU. MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY THU WITH HIGHS NEAR 90
INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. MINS WILL RANGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

AVIATION: TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TIL AROUND 00Z. HAVE VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG AT GNV AFT 06Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND. WILL HAVE NE SURGE WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY FRI THEN INCREASING TO AT
LEAST MODERATE CATEGORY SAT AND SUN DUE TO NE AND E FLOW.

&&

FIRE WX: MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE INLAND. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH HAS PROMPTED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE TO MIXING...STRONG TRANSPORT
WINDS...AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL
BE 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:

AMG  63  87  53  84 /  10   0   0   0  
SSI  69  86  62  76 /  10  10   0   0  
JAX  67  89  58  80 /  10  10   0   0  
SGJ  69  88  66  77 /  20  10   0   0  
GNV  65  90  58  84 /  20  10   0   0  
OCF  66  91  61  85 /  20  10  10   0

&&

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALKER

Area Forecast Discussion (MIAAFDJAX)

Area Forecast Discussion