FXUS62 KJAX 142010
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS LATE 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...SFC DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY TO OUR S WITH WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN ZONES. TONIGHT...BOUNDARY TO OUR S WILL SHIFT 
NWD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 20-30%. THINK GFS MOS MAY BE A 
BIT HIGH SO USED A BLEND CLOSER TO NAM. AREAS OF FOG SOME OF IT 
DENSE IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NWD REACHING INTO THE NRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON 
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 60% TO 80% N 
ZONES. MODELS VARY WITH INSTABILITY ...GFS MORE STABLE WITH SB CAPES 
LESS THAN 600 VS NAM WITH OVER 1000J IN SOME SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE 
WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA AND CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL 
POSSIBLE FOR SAT NIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH 
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OF STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT. SPC HAS INDICATED SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT GIVEN CURRENT AND 
PAST MODEL PROJECTIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY SAT NIGHT WITH 
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AND ENDING MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z SUN...WITH
BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA EXPECTED OVER SE ZONES AT THAT 
TIME. COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AND N. FREEZING TEMPS LOOK LIKELY 
FOR MON MORNING THEN COOL MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S UNDER NLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NC AREA TUE WILL SHIFT 
EWD ALLOWING MODIFYING AIRMASS AS ATLC MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE 
AREA. FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED TUE MORNING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST 
WITH UPPER 20S POSSIBLE N OF GNV. TEMPS DRIFT MORE TOWARD NORMAL 
VALUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AT THE 
COAST. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO 
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. 

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA 
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...FOG 
WILL YET AGAIN THICKEN OVERNIGHT AND CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED DENSE 
FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL LIFT 
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LIFTING FEATURE ON 
SATURDAY...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOCAL TAF SITES DUE TO FOG/LOW 
CLOUDS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.  

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL WATERS 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA 
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY 
MORNING...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE LOCAL WATERS.

WILL INITIATE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SPREADING TO THE NEARSHORE LEGS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  73  49  55 /  10  80  80  10 
SSI  60  71  56  62 /  10  70  90  20 
JAX  58  75  53  60 /  20  60  90  30 
SGJ  62  75  58  64 /  30  60  80  40 
GNV  60  79  56  62 /  30  60  90  30 
OCF  62  81  57  64 /  30  50  90  40 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 12 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 
     NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST 
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZAPPE/WALKER