FXUS62 KJAX 151817
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MID-ATLC BOMB CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE WITH TRAILING COLD 
FRONT ALREADY S OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL SC DECK COVERS MOST OF GA AND 
AL...BUT BREAKS ARE NOTED PER VIS SAT PIX. WINDS CONTINUE TO HOWL 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 
35 TO 45 MPH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINE OR LIGHT POLES 
DOWN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

.SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR UNTIL 9 PM. 
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER EXTENSION OR 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AFTER EXPIRATION.

CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY ERODE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
IN THEIR WAKE. HAVE LEANED HIGH ON MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT MAINLY 
BECAUSE OF THE WIND. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN VERY 
EFFECTIVE AT COOLING TEMPS THIS AFTN...AND EXPECT ADVECTION TO 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES PREVAILING. SHOULD BE ENUF WIND TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN 
THE MID 40S FOR MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR 80 ON TUE AFTN 
BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE JUST N OF 
THE AREA ON WED...BRINGING A SHOT OF PRECIP. LATEST GFS IS A BIT 
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ONLY CHANCE 
PRECIP AMOUNTS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. 
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THRU MOST OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH TEMPS 
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN CIGS AROUND 4000 FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS 
EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE.  SSI TAF WILL HAVE SKIES REMAINING 
BROKEN LONGER THAN FL TAFS...UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND 04Z. STRONG WNW 
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...EASING 
BACK TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.  

&&

.MARINE...BOUYS 41012 AND 41008 REPORTING GALE FORCE GUSTS(37 KNOTS) 
AT 17Z. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY SO WILL 
CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.   

&&

.FIRE WX...MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA PROMPTING RED FLAG 
WARNINGS FOR MONDAY DUE TO LOW RH'S COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS.  
HAVE POSTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY DUE TO LONG DURATIONS 
OF LOW RH. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  72  44  80 /   0   0   0   0 
SSI  47  69  52  75 /   0   0   0   0 
JAX  43  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  49  72  51  76 /   0   0   0   0 
GNV  43  73  46  81 /   0   0   0   0 
OCF  42  71  45  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUE MORNING THROUGH TUE EVENING         
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-         
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MON FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF 
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUE MORNING THROUGH TUE EVENING 
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL 
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND 
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER 
     BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

CARROLL/ZIBURA/KERNS