FXUS62 KJAX 150749 CCA AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 306 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING... ...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... TODAY...PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FINALLY ON THE DOOR STEP OF FORECAST AREA AND IT WILL MAKE A FINAL PUSH THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A TOR WATCH FOR NE FL AS SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE GOMEX. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN WEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND HAVE LEFT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH BRISK WEST WINDS CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CONTINUING. MIN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S TOWARD MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. MONDAY...SUNNY...COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MAX TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...NWLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH COOL MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS REBOUNDING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... QUICK MOVING SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GA/BIG BEND AREA BY 08Z AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH 14Z. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SQUALL...INCLUDING +TSRA WITH IFR IN THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL VEER TO SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KT BY 15Z. && .MARINE...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. INCLUDED THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE GALE WARNING...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HEADLINES. && .FIRE WEATHER...DROPPED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RFW FOR TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT TIMES. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW DUE TO WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 39 72 44 / 50 0 0 0 SSI 73 46 68 51 / 60 0 0 0 JAX 72 41 73 47 / 60 0 0 0 SGJ 75 45 72 51 / 60 0 0 0 GNV 71 41 73 46 / 60 0 0 0 OCF 72 42 72 45 / 60 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER- GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE- UNION. GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN- COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ HESS/HURLBUT