FXUS62 KJAX 141858 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 255 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... .SHORT TERM...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S EXCEPT ALONG EAST COAST WHERE A SEABREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TN MOVING NE WITH SECONDARY LOW OVER S MS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN BEGINNING AROUND 06Z OVER NC AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING THE SHEAR AND HELICITY OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT DYNAMICS WILL MAKE UP FOR THIS. EXPECT MAIN CONCERN TO BE A SQUALL LINE PRODUCING POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEGINNING AROUND 06Z OVER WESTERN COUNTIES OF SE GA AND REACHING EAST COAST OF NE FL AROUND 12Z WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY THEN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SE GA WHERE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC LIFT/SHEAR WILL EXIST. WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY BY MODELS. UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF SQUALL LINE...WITH A 4 HOUR PERIOD OF TEMPO TSTMS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN THEREAFTER. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE WIND SHEAR THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. && .MARINE...HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM SUN AFTN TO MON MORNING. TO AVOID CONFUSION...HAVE CUT OFF ALL HEADLINES AT THE END OF THE GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THRU THIS PERIOD FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AS WELL AS LEADING UP TO THE GALE. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY FINE TUNE THIS...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE GALE. THANX FOR COORD CHS AND MLB! && .FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WX WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF NE FL FOR SUN EXCEPT THE EXTREME SE. HAVE LEFT WATCH FOR REMAINDER OF AREA AS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS MUCH MORE MARGINAL. HAVE HOISTED FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL OF NE FL FOR MON FOR LOW RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ONCE THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 64 39 70 / 60 10 0 0 SSI 69 70 47 69 / 60 60 0 0 JAX 65 70 40 73 / 60 60 0 0 SGJ 68 75 47 71 / 60 60 0 0 GNV 65 73 42 74 / 60 50 0 0 OCF 66 74 40 74 / 60 60 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM SUN FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON- MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER- GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE- UNION. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM SUN FOR ALACHUA-BAKER- BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU- SUWANNEE-UNION. GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN- COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR APPLING- ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN- COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM SUN FOR APPLING-ATKINSON- BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN- COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE- WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM SUN FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SUN TO 10 AM MON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ ZIBURA/CARROLL/KEEGAN