FXUS62 KJAX 141342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...12Z KJAX SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE 
SFC...WITH AN INVERSION AT 950 MB WHICH WILL BE BY NOONTIME.
FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S 
ACROSS MOST AREAS AND WINDS INCREASING TO WINDY CRITERIA MAINLY
IN GUSTS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY GUST CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET IN MOST 
AREAS. NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH SQUALL LINE TONIGHT...
WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS N GA AND THE CAROLINAS. TWEAKS TO 
TIMING MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN 12Z SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
WHEN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL 
WINDS WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS 
POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...WILL REDUCE MENTION OF WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES
AS LIMITED MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER COOL SHELF WATERS AND LAND-BASED
MOMENTUM SHOULD STAY OVER LAND THRU MOST OF THE DAY WITH S COMPONENT.
WILL ALSO WORD INLAND WATERS AS BECOMING CHOPPY. OTHERWISE...MINOR 
CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE DECK PROGGED TO MIX TO 
THE SFC. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER FL. IN ADDITION...LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL
MAKE UP FOR HIGHER THAN CRITERIA RH OVER SE GA. NO CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MIXING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM THIS 
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING 
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM THIS 
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUN AFTERNOON THRU SUN EVENING 
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL 
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND 
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL 
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND 
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM 
     TUE FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM 
     MON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CARROLL/KERNS