FXUS62 KJAX 140717 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 315 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007 ...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY... ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACRS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT...PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH INTO WRN AREAS AROUND SUNSET WITH STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT WITH ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARD MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED AFTER SUNSET. SUNDAY...SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME DECREASE TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION. MONDAY...SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND LOW RH'S. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EASTWARD. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING AND INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 62 67 39 / 10 70 50 0 SSI 80 67 71 46 / 10 50 70 0 JAX 88 65 72 40 / 10 50 60 0 SGJ 86 67 75 46 / 10 40 60 0 GNV 89 65 73 41 / 0 50 50 0 OCF 89 65 72 41 / 0 40 50 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL- FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS- SUWANNEE-UNION. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER- GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE- UNION. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER- GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE- UNION. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH- COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN- INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ HESS/HURLBUT