FXUS62 KJAX 140037
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
837 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...A VERY QUIET EVENING SETTING UP OVER THE
JACKSONVILLE FORECAST AREA WITH THESE CONDITIONS LOOKING TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHILE GRADIENT FROM
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS HAS YET TO INFLUENCE OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME WITH
MOST OF THE CURRENT WINDS THE RESULT OF THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
ZONES...ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH TO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AT THIS TIME. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL RH SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH EXPANDS NORTHWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH VERY SHALLOW...THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
HANDLES WELL IN CURRENT GRID SET. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS WILL SEE
SOME DENSE CONDITIONS...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

.POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UPDATE...MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND BRING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. LATEST WRF MODEL HAS TWO
JET CORES...ONE AT 50 TO 55 KNOTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WHICH WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE SECOND JET CORE IS 55 TO 60 KNOTS BEHIND THE SQUALL
LINE WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WHICH IS HANDLES WELL IN CURRENT GRID SET.

.AVIATION...HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES...BUT
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS. TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE...THERE
MAY BE SOME DEVELOPING MVFR WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  87  63  67 /  10  20  70  50 
SSI  60  80  66  72 /  10  10  70  60 
JAX  57  87  66  74 /  10  10  60  60 
SGJ  61  86  67  75 /  10  10  60  70 
GNV  56  88  66  74 /  10  10  60  60 
OCF  57  87  66  75 /   0  10  60  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING 
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR 
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR 
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE 
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DEESE/TRABERT/MCALLISTER