FXUS62 KJAX 131401
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

.PUBLIC UPDATE...BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR ONE MORE DAY AS
MEAN LAYER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL... WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH 80S MOST LOCALES. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH PREVALENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE EXITS EAST
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED A SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 80S. AS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED
BY SQUALL LINE AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. SPC HAS JAX CWA UNDER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SURGE OF NLY WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.
WILL UPDATE CWF PACKAGE TO INCLUDE SCEC HEADLINES FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS. FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHAST WITH WEAKENING TREND...BUT THIS
REPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. 

AS ADVERTISED...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY... BUT AFTER COLLAB WILL
LET DAY SHIFT POST ACTUAL HEADLINES FOR THE EVENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AT
GALE FORCE LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE PUSHING
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS POSSIBLE GALE EVENT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LAST MARINE WEATHER 
STATEMENT (MIAMWSJAX) ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WX (PER MIDNIGHT SHIFT)...ANOTHER RED FLAG EVENT EXPECTED AREA
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH'S BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 15-25%
RANGE WEST OF I-95 AND IN THE 25-35% ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AM A
BIT CONCERNED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINAL RED FLAG EVENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 MPH AND MIN RH'S FALL INTO THE 35-40% RANGE. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL AS WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLE MIN RH'S IN THE 30 TO
35% RANGE. STAY TUNED AS DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPPE