FXUS62 KJAX 121853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...COLD FRONT SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
(CU FIELD) FROM NEAR FLAGLER BEACH TO SE OF OCALA MOVING RAPIDLY
SE. MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. DEWPOINTS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA. TONIGHT...RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH WEAKEST GRADIENT ACROSS
EXTREME N FL INTO SE GA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...LEANED
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S WELL INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE 
CONTINUED DRY EVERYWHERE AND NOTICEABLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK GRADIENT. 
WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WELL INLAND BUT MID 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MAJOR WARMUP
SATURDAY...WITH LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA...AS WINDS
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/NAM ON PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE 
MOVING THROUGH...FIRST ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION LATE SAT EVE
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH 
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX WITH 
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN CONCERN. SPC HAS AREA 
UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 (SWODY3). HAVE INCREASED QFP'S AND COULD 
SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS ESP OUT TO THE 
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF JAX BY SUN AM.          

.LONG TERM (MON-THURS)...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN MONDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO VORTEX ACROSS THE NE U.S. 
COULD SEE MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA. THE 
AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFIES BEGINNING TUES AS THE LOW MOVES 
EAST AND RIDGE BUILDS IN. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WED-THURS.
     
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. 

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH SCEC HEADLINES 
EXPECTED. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OFFSHORE LEGS...AS DEPARTING LOW FURTHER 
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...FURTHER TIGHTENING THE 
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.FIRE WX...HAVE EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL BUT FLAGLER 
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS DEW-POINT VALUES ARE QUICKLY CRASHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  81  54  86 /   0   0   0  30 
SSI  53  75  62  79 /   0   0   0  20 
JAX  48  79  57  86 /   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  55  75  63  85 /   0   0   0  10 
GNV  48  83  58  87 /   0   0   0  10 
OCF  49  85  58  88 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF 
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF 
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PP/ECZ/MM