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[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FLUS42 KJAX 142219 HWOJAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 619 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000- ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY- CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE- COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)- GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM- ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE- 619 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... A COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. THE HIGH RISK THE AREA WILL BE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH WITH A MODERATE RISK NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF LIFEGUARDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. $$ ECZ [Printable] [Older Versions]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 150057
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
.PUBLIC UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM IS
MOVING OVER RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS AND A
MOISTENING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATING TREND IN
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...POTENT LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS CONTINUES TO SEND
LARGE SWELLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE LEGS. BUOY 41009
IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 8 FT SWELLS. LOCALLY...COMBINED SEAS UPWARDS
OF 9 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE BETWEEN ST. AUGUSTINE AND
FLAGLER BEACH. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS...WITH NO HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS AS LARGEST SWELLS
WILL HOLD FARTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 84 67 85 / 10 40 30 40
SSI 64 81 69 84 / 10 30 20 40
JAX 59 85 67 87 / 10 20 20 40
SGJ 64 84 68 88 / 0 10 10 40
GNV 60 87 66 87 / 10 10 20 40
OCF 60 87 66 87 / 10 10 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ZAPPE/KEEGAN
This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions]
000
NWUS52 KJAX 131430
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE EVERETT 31.35N 81.57W
05/11/2008 GLYNN GA PARK/FOREST SRVC
GEORGIA FORESTRY OFFICIALS REPORTED ISOLATED POCKETS OF
TREES DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY AS
PER AERIAL SURVEY. TIME IS ESTIMATED AND BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY.
&&
$$
JHESS
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ABNT20 KNHC 010302 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS THE 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON APPROACHES ITS CONCLUSION... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2008. SHOULD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WOULD BE ISSUED...AS NEEDED. SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WTUS82 KJAX 022044 CCA HLSJAX FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-022100- TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 444 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007 ...RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT... ...NEW INFORMATION... BARRY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...ALACHUA...BAKER... BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST... HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE AND UNION. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...APPLING...ATKINSON... BACON...BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE..ECHOLS... GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...WARE AND WAYNE. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... NO TROPICAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BEACHES TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST... VERY NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND ARE MAINLY OCCURRING OVER THE WATER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS NOW MOVING TROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...WINDS... LAKE WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THESE IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN COASTAL GLYNN AND CAMDEN COUNTIES. ...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY. ...INLAND FLOODING... PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AND STREET AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE RAINFALL ENDS. ...TORNADOES... THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ...MARINE... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF UP TO 13 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED STATEMENT ON BARRY UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/GHLS/HLS_MAIN.SHTML $$ SANDRIK [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 AXNT20 KNHC 142345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PHOTOS AND AN ASCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD TO AROUND 12N. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE THAT PROBABLY MOVED OUT OF AFRICA THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS INDICATE SOME WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 3N20W 2N40W 6N50W 6N58W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-200 NM N OF AXIS AND W OF 37W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REGION LIES BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER S TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRAGMENTS OF MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE GULF. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF. DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLC IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN COURTESY OF A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AND OVER WESTERN PANAMA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT AFFECTING HISPANIOLA ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 995 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N56W THEN CONTINUES SW CROSSING JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A 120-140 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR 40N58W TO 26N73W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTICED BEHIND THE FRONT IMPLY THAT A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS HAS INVADE THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. OF NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SEASONS ENDING NOVEMBER 30TH. $$ GR NO ADVISORIES FOUND
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS01 KWNS 150103 SWODY1 SPC AC 150100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AR...SERN OK...THEN SWWD AS A CONSOLIDATED FRONT-CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN TX JUST SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO. DRYLINE INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY OVER SWRN TX THEN EXTENDS SWWD JUST WEST OF DEL RIO. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM SRN MS AND SRN LA WWD THROUGH SERN AND S CNTRL TX. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO CONTINUE FROM SWRN THROUGH W CNTRL TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EAST OF WHERE THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. THE LACK OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS LIMITED OVERALL SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THE SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH TX WARM SECTOR NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES...THROUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM SRN LA WWD THROUGH SERN TX. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS PERSISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER SERN LA/SRN MS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY EARLIER CONVECTION WITH 00Z RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT AND JACKSON SHOWING MLCAPE AOB 600 J/KG. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAKES THE THREAT IN THIS AREA MORE CONDITIONAL. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. NEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY INCREASING OVER LA AND MS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2008 [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS02 KWNS 141716 SWODY2 SPC AC 141714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION NWD INTO THE TN VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPR LOW NEAR EL PASO AT MID-DAY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VLYS THROUGH THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY CASCADES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGER WAVE TROUGH EDGING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM TX INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY THEN INTO WV BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT...CAUGHT IN SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND SWD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE/TX GULF COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ...GULF CSTL REGION NWD INTO THE TN VLY... RICH GULF MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF STATES WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGHOUT THE TN VLY/DEEP S ALONG/SE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS OWING TO BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTERS AND WARM ADVECTION DERIVED LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...BUOYANCY WILL PROBABLY BE MITIGATED BY REDUCED INSOLATION. MOREOVER...SUB-TROPICAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME AND RECENT BOUTS OF TSTMS OVERTURNING THE AIRMASS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS PRIOR TO THURSDAY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RESULT IN REDUCED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...TSTMS WILL BE SUPPORTED AND SHOULD COVER A WIDESPREAD REGION AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE AFTN...WHICH AT THIS POINT...APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD ACROSS WRN AL...CNTRL/SRN MS AND SRN LA. ALONG WITH THE POOR LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...VERTICAL AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW VEERS. THUS...EXPECT THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL PREFER THE MORE ROBUST THERMODYNAMICS. WHILE ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WILL BE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AS PCPN LOADING IN THE RICH MOISTURE-LADEN AIR MASS CASCADES TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM...LOW-LVL THERMAL AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/S OF THE FRONT FROM SCNTRL TX INTO THE LWR VLY...THOUGH MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE ROBUST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. ...MN... WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH TIED TO A NRN STREAM JETLET EXPECTED TO DIG TOWARD MN LATE THURSDAY AFTN. PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20 DEG C COINCIDENT WITH UPR 40S SFC DEW POINTS INVOF THE SFC CONVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW MAY AUGMENT DOWNDRAFTS FOR GUSTY WINDS...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO NOT ADD SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 05/14/2008 [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS03 KWNS 140728 SWODY3 SPC AC 140726 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... SWLY TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIRMASS INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SERN U.S. BY FRIDAY. THIS MOISTENING PROCESS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH VERY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE MORE THAN BUOYANT ENOUGH FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE DEEP WLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MCS CLUSTERS COULD PROPAGATE WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST/FAVOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY3 TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE STABILIZING INFLUENCES FROM DAY2 CONVECTION EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. IF IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ISSUED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DARROW.. 05/14/2008 This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 ACUS11 KWNS 150054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150053 TXZ000-150200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 150053Z - 150200Z SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 0130-0200Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VIGOROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER 00Z BRO SOUNDING...A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WAS OBSERVED ABOVE 900 MB. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ONGOING...DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED EWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. CURRENTLY IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT S OF WW 322. HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. ..MEAD.. 05/15/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... 27189951 27279901 27319839 26669786 26149827 26349906
[Printable] [Older Versions]
000
FNUS52 KJAX 141821
FWFJAX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP MIN RH'S ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES MOST AREAS.THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN
35 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. MIN RH'S ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR
20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND BUT ONLY A SHORT DURATION OF LOW RH IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS AT THIS TIME.
GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-150930-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 30 30 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
TEMP 60 86 67 85
RH (%) 97 38 100 52
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 10 G17 SW 9
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 9 SW 13 G17 SW 9 W 13 G19
PRECIP DURATION 2 2 2
PRECIP BEGIN 8 AM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.19
LAL 1 4 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400 6400 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 13 S 20 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 9 61 1 1
MAX LVORI 6 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
GAZ153-154-165-166-150930-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 20 20 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
TEMP 59 85 67 86
RH (%) 100 37 100 52
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 9 G16 SW 8 G15
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 10 G15 S 12 G18 S 9 G18 W 11 G16
PRECIP DURATION 1 1 2
PRECIP BEGIN 2 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.19
LAL 1 2 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400 6100 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) S 16 S 18 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 9 56 1 1
MAX LVORI 6 8
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
FLZ020>023-030-031-150930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 20 20 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE SHOWERS TSTMS TSTMS
TEMP 60 87 66 87
RH (%) 96 35 100 51
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 9 G17 SW 8 G18
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 6 SW 13 G17 SW 9 G16 SW 14 G24
PRECIP DURATION 1 1 2
PRECIP BEGIN 2 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.17
LAL 1 2 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 500 6100 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 13 S 20 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 10 61 1 1
MAX LVORI 5 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
FLZ035-036-040-150930-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-MARION-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 10 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE TSTMS TSTMS
TEMP 59 87 65 88
RH (%) 96 32 100 47
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 9 G16 SW 9 G19
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 8 SW 10 SW 7 SW 15 G24
PRECIP DURATION 1 2
PRECIP BEGIN 8 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.13
LAL 1 1 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 500 6100 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 13 S 17 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 10 53 1 1
MAX LVORI 4 8
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
FLZ032-037-150930-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 10 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS TSTMS
TEMP 60 87 66 89
RH (%) 95 33 99 45
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 8 SW 9 G19
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 10 S 8 S 5 SW 13 G23
PRECIP DURATION 1 2
PRECIP BEGIN 8 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.13
LAL 1 1 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400 6400 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) S 9 S 16 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 8 57 1 1
MAX LVORI 4 6
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
FLZ024-025-150930-
NASSAU-DUVAL-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 20 20 40
WEATHER TYPE NONE SHOWERS TSTMS TSTMS
TEMP 58 85 66 87
RH (%) 99 36 100 49
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 8 G15 SW 9 G19
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 10 G16 S 10 G16 S 8 G16 SW 12 G22
PRECIP DURATION 1 1 2
PRECIP BEGIN 2 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 8 AM CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.17
LAL 1 1 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400 6400 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) S 14 S 17 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 8 67 1 1
MAX LVORI 6 8
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
FLZ033-038-150930-
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
221 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT THU THU NIGHT FRI
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 30
WEATHER TYPE NONE NONE NONE TSTMS
TEMP 61 86 67 89
RH (%) 91 33 94 45
20FT WND MPH (AM) S 9 SW 10 G19
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 11 G15 SE 10 G17 S 10 G18 SW 12 G22
PRECIP DURATION 2
PRECIP BEGIN 8 AM
PRECIP END CONTINUING
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11
LAL 1 1 2 3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400 6000 0 0
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 15 S 15 N 5 N 5
DISPERSION INDEX 9 54 1 1
MAX LVORI 4 6
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
$$
JDS
This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WWUS82 KJAX 142217 RFWJAX RED FLAG WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 617 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 FLZ035-036-040-142330- /O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0057.000000T0000Z-080514T2200Z/ GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-MARION- 617 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT AS RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 35 PERCENT. $$ ECZ [Printable] [Older Versions]
000
FNUS72 KJAX 141520
SMFJAX
NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
FLZ020>023-030-031-142300-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 8
DISPERSION INDEX 5
MAX LVORI 7
$$
FLZ035-036-040-142300-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-MARION-
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH...
TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 10
DISPERSION INDEX 4
MAX LVORI 6
$$
FLZ032-037-142300-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 6
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 8
DISPERSION INDEX 5
MAX LVORI 7
$$
FLZ024-025-142300-
NASSAU-DUVAL-
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 7
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) S 12
DISPERSION INDEX 5
MAX LVORI 7
$$
FLZ033-038-142300-
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
1120 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
TONIGHT
CLOUD COVER PCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM) SE 8
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SE 14
DISPERSION INDEX 6
MAX LVORI 6
$$
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FZUS52 KJAX 150234 CCA CWFJAX COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1033 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM AMZ400-150845- SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM- 1033 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST. LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. $$ AMZ450-452-454-150845- /O.ROU.KJAX.MA.F.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- 1033 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 .TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. .THURSDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND WATERS CHOPPY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SUNDAY...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. .SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. .MONDAY...EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS MOSTLY SMOOTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. $$ AMZ470-150845- /O.COR.KJAX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-080516T1500Z/ ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- 1033 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. .THURSDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET LOWERING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS LOWERING TO 3 TO 4 FEET. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. .SUNDAY...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. .MONDAY...EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. .MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. $$ AMZ472-474-150845- /O.COR.KJAX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-080516T1500Z/ FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- 1033 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... .TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. .THURSDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET LOWERING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .FRIDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS LOWERING TO 3 TO 4 FEET. .SATURDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. .SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. .MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. $$ ECZ [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FZUS52 KJAX 140916 SRFJAX SURF ZONE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 516 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 FLZ024-025-GAZ154-166-142200- NASSAU-DUVAL-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE... BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS 516 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY... RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: MODERATE. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND/OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONGER OR MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS. ONLY EXPERIENCED SURF SWIMMERS SHOULD ENTER THE WATER. WIND: EAST 10 TO 15 MPH. SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FEET. WATER TEMPERATURE: LOWER 70S. UV INDEX: 11...IN THE EXTREME RANGE. OUTLOOK: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. $$ FLZ033-038-142200- ST JOHNS-FLAGLER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST 516 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 ...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY... RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: HIGH. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND/OR WAVE CONDITIONS ENHANCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. WIND: EAST 10 TO 15 MPH. SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 5 FEET. WATER TEMPERATURE: LOWER TO MID 70S. UV INDEX: 11...IN THE EXTREME RANGE. OUTLOOK: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. $$ PP This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions]
000
FZUS72 KJAX 120203
MWSJAX
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008
AMZ450-452-470-472-120400-
1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
AT 1001 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS... ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
54 NM EAST OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO DUNGENESS...MOVING SOUTH AT 26 KNOTS.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. YOUR BEST COURSE OF
ACTION IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR...BUT IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER...STAY BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 3090 8031 3072 8041 3063 8041 3025 8032
2991 8021 2993 8131 3030 8142 3041 8142
3050 8146 3066 8145 3071 8154 3078 8152
3113 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 347DEG 26KT 3103 8028 3071 8145
$$
HESS
This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions]
000
WHUS52 KJAX 120109
SMWJAX
AMZ450-470-120200-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0042.080512T0106Z-080512T0200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
* AT 908 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 50 KNOTS OR
GREATER 8 NM WEST OF CUMBERLAND ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS.
ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG STORMS WERE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF ST SIMONS
ISLAND MOVING EAST AT 40 KNOTS.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS...HIGH WAVES...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
WATER SPOUTS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.
LAT...LON 3114 8034 3111 8034 3059 8061 3071 8154
3075 8153 3080 8154 3089 8148 3091 8148
3129 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 284DEG 39KT 3078 8149
$$
PETERSON
This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 WHUS42 KJAX 171827 CFWJAX COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 227 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008 FLZ033-038-180000- /O.CON.KJAX.CF.S.0004.000000T0000Z-080418T0000Z/ ST JOHNS-FLAGLER- 227 PM EDT THU APR 17 2008 ...ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION THROUGH THIS EVENING... ..HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING... SURF BREAKERS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH SURF...THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH. STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. FINALLY...THE NORTHEAST DIRECTED WAVES AND SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT EROSION THIS PAST YEAR. THE EROSION CONCERNS WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR AND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS LISTED BELOW. NEXT HIGH TIDE AT SAINT AUGUSTINE IS 743 THIS EVENING. $$
[Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FGUS52 KALR 141344 RVFJAX RIVER FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA FORECASTS INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS 0942 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 : : FORECAST ISSUED BY GA- ALTAMAHA FORECASTER : :************************************************************************* :BAXLEY - Altamaha River :FLOOD STAGE 74.5 ACTION STAGE 72.5 : :LATEST STAGE -9999.00 FT AT 845 AM EDT ON 0514 .ER BAXG1 0514 E DC200805140942/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :24HR QPF APPLIED 8AM 2PM 8PM 2AM .E1 :0514: / 65.7/ 65.6/ 65.6 .E2 :0515: / 65.6/ 65.6/ 65.5/ 65.5 .E3 :0516: / 65.5/ 65.5/ 65.4/ 65.4 .E4 :0517: / 65.4/ 65.3/ 65.3/ 65.3 .E5 :0518: / 65.2/ 65.2/ 65.2/ 65.1 .E6 :0519: / 65.1 :6HR QPF VALUES 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00 :************************************************************************* :DOCTORTOWN - Altamaha River :FLOOD STAGE 14.0 ACTION STAGE 12.0 : :LATEST STAGE 5.42 FT AT 900 AM EDT ON 0514 .ER DCTG1 0514 E DC200805140942/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :24HR QPF APPLIED 8AM 2PM 8PM 2AM .E1 :0514: / 5.6/ 5.7/ 5.8 .E2 :0515: / 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.7 .E3 :0516: / 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.5 .E4 :0517: / 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.3 .E5 :0518: / 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0 .E6 :0519: / 4.9 :6HR QPF VALUES 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00 :************************************************************************* :WAYCROSS - Satilla River :FLOOD STAGE 16.0 ACTION STAGE 14.0 : :LATEST STAGE 4.66 FT AT 730 AM EDT ON 0514 .ER AYSG1 0514 E DC200805140942/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :24HR QPF APPLIED 8AM 2PM 8PM 2AM .E1 :0514: / 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7 .E2 :0515: / 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6 .E3 :0516: / 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6 .E4 :0517: / 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5 .E5 :0518: / 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5 .E6 :0519: / 4.5 :6HR QPF VALUES 0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00 :*********************************************************************** :COMMENT : : : .AR ALR 0514 E Dt200805140942/YIDRZ 9: ru : :...END OF MESSAGE... This is not a regularly issued product. Please check the issuance and valid times. [Printable] [Older Versions] 000 FGUS72 KJAX 111723 CCA ESFJAX FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125- GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-061000- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 123 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL BE NORMAL THIS SPRING. ...EXISTING CONDITIONS... RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION FOR THE WATER YEAR BEGINNING 1 OCT 2007 HAS RANGED AROUND 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WATER YEAR WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR 25 TO 30 INCHES. SOIL MOISTURE - SURFACE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. FORECASTS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MID MARCH. A MARKED INCREASE IN SOIL MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ALAPAHA RIVER OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GROUND WATER CONDITIONS - GROUND WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY LOW...BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO RECHARGE OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND ST. JOHNS RIVER IN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BASINS DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. RIVER FLOWS - RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS COMBINED WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE LIMITED THE LOSS OF GROUNDWATER. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RESPONSIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE GOOD BASEFLOW SUPPORT FROM GROUND WATER EVEN IN THE RELATIVELY DRIER AREAS. MOST RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE RECOVERED FROM THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS OF LAST SUMMER AND SEVERAL HAVE EXCEEDED BANKFULL IN RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS. ...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK... IT IS COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR FRONTS TO BEGIN TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR EVEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH DECREASE IN STRENGTH. AS THESE BOUNDARIES STALL...THEY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. STRONG TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVOR LESS FRONTS THROUGH OUR AREA AND THEREFORE LESS PRECIPITATION. ...LONG TERM OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE SPRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS STRONG TO MODERATE LA NINA CYCLES. ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK... MOST RIVER FLOODING OCCURS FROM MID TO LATE JANUARY THROUGH MARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THERE IS A STEADY DROP OFF FROM APRIL INTO MAY. THIS FLOOD PERIOD COINCIDES WHEN HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL EVENTS OVERLAP WITH THE TIME THAT MOST VEGETATION IS DORMANT. THIS COMBINATION RESULTS IN EFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR RUNOFF...THEREBY PRODUCING HIGHER VOLUME STREAM FLOW AND ENHANCED FLOOD POTENTIAL. THERE IS A SECONDARY FLOOD PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUMMER AND FALL TROPICAL SEASONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...DOES NOT PRODUCE THE CONSISTENT FLOODING NORMALLY OBSERVED DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING FLOOD PERIOD. INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC $$ ENYEDI/MCALLISTER/KERNS/LANIER 
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